National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KMLB 201854
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
254 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

...Above Average to Near Record High Temperatures Sunday...
...Marginal Risk for Strong to Severe Storms Monday...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Currently-Tonight... It`s been another dry and warm day across
east central Florida with high pressure in place over the western
Atlantic, as well as a mid/upper level ridge over the Gulf of
Mexico and the state of Florida. Current GOES-16 satellite imagery
shows few to scattered clouds south of Volusia county. Current
temperatures are in the low to upper 80s with dew points in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Winds are out of the west northwest over the
interior at 5-10mph and out of the east-southeast along the coast
with the east coast sea breeze pushing inland across I-95 and
just to the west.

Patchy fog is forecast to develop overnight, mainly between 5am and
9am across Lake, western Orange, northwest Osceola, and northwest
Volusia counties. Visibilities will have the potential to drop to 1
mile or less at times. If you encounter fog, remember to use your
low beam headlights and leave plenty of distance between you and the
vehicle in front of you. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into
the low 60s to near 70 degrees with mostly clear skies becoming
mostly cloudy with low stratus and patchy fog expected to develop
towards sunrise across areas north of I-4.

Sunday... High presssure will weaken into Sunday ahead of a cold
front that is expected to track across north Florida into Sunday
evening. Winds are forecast to increase Sunday afternoon from the
southwest at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph. The east coast sea
breeze will likely not make it far inland with stronger west-
southwest flow keeping any sea breeze collisions near the coast
south of Cape Canaveral. However, if the sea breeze is able to
make it inland, isolated showers (PoPs ~15%) will be possible
south of Melbourne with PWATs in the 1.4-1.6" range Sunday
afternoon. Above average to near record high temperatures are
forecast with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s under partly
cloudy skies. The best chance for breaking any records will be
over the Treasure Coast and at Daytona.

Sunday Night-Monday...The mid-level trough digs down to Florida,
kicking the front stalled across the southern US towards Florida
while developing an elongated surface low off the southeastern
seaboard. Models indicate isolated to scattered mainly elevated
showers developing along and ahead of the front from the early to
late morning hours, where an isolated lightning storm can`t be ruled
out, followed by isolated deeper surface based convection from the
late morning into the evening behind the front. Storms behind the
front are possible thanks to the front being fairly weak, delivering
only modest cooling that daytime heating will be able to counter
further south, the mid-level trough pushing all the way to South
Florida, cool 500mb temperatures around M10-M12C, and the front
providing some surface convergence. Dewpoint temperatures increasing
to the M-U60s (PWATs increasing to around 1.5") plus daytime heating
and the cool temperatures aloft will result in SBCAPE values
reaching 1,000-1,500 J/kg, with the NAM going as far as 2,000 J/kg,
south of a line roughly from Titusville to Kissimmee. An initially
unidirectional wind profile will actually become backed as the day
progresses and northerly winds arrive behind the front, with 40-55
kts of bulk shear and 40-45 kts of effective shear. An aid and a
barrier to storm strength will be very dry air above 700mb, which
will provide a hostile environment for updrafts, but could promote
stronger downdrafts, and is reflected by DCAPE values 800-1,000
J/kg. Overall, the environment looks conditionally favorable for
strong to marginally severe storms across the southern parts of east
central Florida from the late morning through the evening. Any
convection that manages to overcome development hurdles could
intensify quickly, and be capable of producing isolated damaging
wind gusts, small to coin-sized hail, frequent cloud to ground
lightning, and heavy downpours. As such, the Storm Prediction Center
has highlighted most of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk.

As for the rest of the forecast, won`t see much from winds with this
front, which only increase to 10-15 mph from the north Monday
evening behind the front, then settle to around 10 mph overnight.
Afternoon highs a little cooler than previous forecasts (which will
have an impact on storm potential), ranging from the M-U70s along
and north of I-4 to the M80s near Stuart. Clearing overnight with
lows dropping into the M50s-60 across most of the area, except the
Treasure Coast counties in the L-M60s, possibly U60s near the coast.

Tuesday-Friday...Warm and dry conditions return as weakening high
pressure behind the cold front slides over the eastern seaboard and
into the western Atlantic. A strung out cold front from an elongated
low pressure system over the northern US and Canada gets dragged
into the southeast US, with some guidance showing potential for the
front to sag towards ECFL, possibly as a backdoor front by Thursday
or Friday. Moisture looks to generally remain scant, especially the
ECM which keeps PWAT`s less than 1", but the GFS has some modest
moisture return Thursday and Friday, increasing PWATs up 1.25" and
indicating some accumulation from sea breeze driven convection. That
said, GEFS means remain less than 1", so given the low confidence
have kept rain chances out of the forecast as advised by the NBM for
now. Gradual warming with daytime temperatures a few degrees above
normal. Afternoon highs in the L-M80s inland and U70s-80 along the
coast Tuesday tick up to the M-U80s inland Wednesday-Friday, but
remain in the U70s-80 near the coast thanks to onshore flow and
daily sea breeze development. Overnight lows range from U50s-60 in
northern and rural locations to the U60s near Stuart Tuesday and
Wednesday nights, getting back into the 60s areawide by Thursday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Primarily VFR conditions are forecast. W/SW winds across the
interior and E/SE winds near the coast at 5-10kts will become
light and variable overnight, before increasing from the
southwest into Sunday afternoon at 10-15kts with gusts to
18-22kts. IFR/LIFR CIGs/VIS will be possible to the north of I-4,
mainly between 5am and 9am.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Currently-Sunday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast
through Sunday with high pressure in place over the western
Atlantic. East to southeast winds at 8-18kts will veer south-
southwest overnight. Seas will build to 1-3ft with up to 4 ft over
the local Atlantic waters with the exception of the Volsuia county
waters.

Sunday Night-Wednesday...The next cold front reaches east central
Florida and the local Atlantic waters late Sunday night/early Monday
morning, working south and departing the Treasure Coast waters by
the late morning. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
lightning storms, some of which could become strong with gusts in
excess of 34 kts and hail will be possible late Sunday night through
Monday, with the highest chances Monday afternoon. High pressure
over the eastern US follows, settling across the eastern seaboard
and Western Atlantic through mid-week.

Srly winds 15-20 kts well ahead of the front Sunday night diminish a
bit to 10-15 kts while veering Wrly as the front approaches, then
veer to Nrly behind the front, increasing to 15-20 kts Monday
evening and overnight. By late morning Tuesday, winds settle to NE
10-15 kts, then NE-E around 10 kts Wednesday, with daily daily sea
breezes returning Tuesday. While winds look to stay at cautionary
levels, seas are expected to build up to at least 8 ft in the Gulf
Stream by Tuesday morning due to fetch from low pressure developing
along the frontal boundary to the northeast, and Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed. Closer to shore, seas building to
4-6 ft. Seas subside through Tuesday, becoming 3-5 ft by Wednesday
morning. Dry conditions forecast Tuesday and and Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Currently-Sunday... Fire sensitive conditions this afternoon will
continue Sunday. Winds will increase into Sunday from the
southwest at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph ahead of a cool front
over north Florida Sunday. Minimum RH values are expected to drop
into the upper 30s to mid 40s with a Moderate Significant Fire
Potential outlooked over the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee county
with a High Risk outlooked to the north.

Tuesday-Friday...High pressure and dry air settle back across
Florida behind the front through Thursday, with min RHs dropping
to 30-40 pct across the interior Tuesday, then to most inland
locations west of I-95 Wednesday and Thursday. Min RHs improve a
little late in the week going into the weekend. Generally easterly
winds expected to remain below 15 mph.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Highs will remain above to well above normal Sunday, reaching the
upper 80s to low 90s.


Record Highs for April 20 and 21 and Last Year Set:

                 APR 21ST
Daytona          89 2002
Leesburg         93 1968
Sanford          93 2006
Orlando          96 1935
Melbourne        92 1944
Vero Beach       91 1970
Ft. Pierce       90 2006


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  88  65  74 /   0  10  40  50
MCO  67  89  67  79 /   0  10  20  60
MLB  67  89  66  80 /   0  10  10  70
VRB  65  91  65  82 /   0  20  10  70
LEE  65  86  66  76 /   0  10  40  50
SFB  66  89  67  76 /   0  10  30  50
ORL  68  89  68  78 /   0  10  30  60
FPR  64  91  65  83 /   0  20  10  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fehling
LONG TERM...Haley
AVIATION...Fehling