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000
FXUS64 KMOB 102323
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
623 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

As an upper system moves off, MVFR/VFR conditions over eastern
portions of the forecast will drop to low end MVFR/IFR/local LIFR
levels area-wide as winds ease. CIGs will rise to general VFR
Thursday, and may see clearing by the end of the forecast over areas
west of the Tombigbee River.  southeasterly winds 10 to 15 knots
will shift to westerly overnight, then northwesterly during the day
and increase to around 15 knots.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 420 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

The MCS that moved across the area today continues to move east
this afternoon. The severe threat has ended across the area and
the tornado watch has been cancelled. Meanwhile, a large area of
stratiform rain will continue through early this evening before
rain chances end from west to east with drier air moving into the
area. The wind advisory has been trimmed back to the coast this
evening as the latest forecasts for wind gusts meet the criteria
to maintain. Widespread rain totals of 2 to 4 inches have
occurred with locally higher amounts from 3 to 6 inches being
reported by a few data collection platforms. The flash flood watch
continues through the evening with the heavy rain risk ending
late.

Axis of upper level storm system responsible for the active period
we are coming out of will be translating eastward over the state
of AL Thursday. There may be some wrap around post-frontal
clouds sliding through Thursday on southwest periphery of deep
wave of frontal low pressure lifting northeast up across the Ohio
River Valley, but no rainfall is expected. The pressure difference
between the low and eastern nose of high pressure beginning to
nudge in from the west suggests that west to northwest winds will
continue to be gusty through the day Thursday. A drier deep layer
environment overspreads the Gulf coast to close out the week and
winds abate with surface high pressure building across.

Coastal hazards with high surf and potentially life threatening
rip currents will continue through the day Thursday. /10

SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 420 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A drier deep layer environment overspreads the Gulf coast aloft and
winds abate with surface high pressure building across the area
Friday and Saturday. Cool nights Friday and Saturday mornings.
Daytime highs look to warm mostly into the mid 70s and then
77 to 81 Saturday. /10

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A well established southerly flow sets up Sunday through Tuesday
as high pressure becomes positioned to the east. No rain expected
through the medium range as upper ridging amplifies with larger
scale subsidence overhead at the start of the new work

Daytime temperatures look to mostly be in the lower to mid 80s for
much of the area. The exception is the immediate coastal areas as
southerly flow off the Gulf keeps numbers a bit more modified in
the mid to upper 70s. Coolest morning in the longer range is
Sunday AM with upper 40s/lower 50s interior to mid 50s coast,
moderating warmer each night thereafter. /10

MARINE...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A large wave of frontal low pressure lifts northeast
up across the Tennessee River Valley tonight then up across the
Ohio River Valley Thursday. Winds remain near gale force through
early Thursday afternoon. Winds will ease and seas will subside by
the weekend as high pressure moves over the area. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning until 1 AM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Warning until 1 AM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
     GMZ630>636.

     Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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