Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 221030
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
530 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

An upper level trough axis continues to pivot across northeast
Texas and southeast Oklahoma early this morning. Marine
observations also show a surface low developing over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico off of the southeast Texas and
southwest Louisiana coast. Regional radar and satellite imagery
show an area of fairly robust convection advancing especially
along and south of the I-10 corridor and adjacent Gulf waters of
southern Louisiana within a region of enhanced ascent ahead of the
trough axis as of 4 AM CDT.

Short range models are in pretty good agreement with bringing the
upper level trough/low eastward across the Lower Mississippi
Valley region today, then across Mississippi, Alabama, and the
western Florida panhandle tonight. Deep layer ascent will arrive
across our forecast area this morning with numerous to widespread
rain showers developing along with isolated to scattered embedded
thunderstorms. The aforementioned surface low over the
northwestern Gulf is expected to lift across the north central
Gulf Coast region, probably centered somewhere over our CWA by
late this afternoon/early this evening. The surface low then lifts
east of our region later this evening. Convective coverage will
remain high through at least the mid afternoon hours before
decreasing somewhat late this afternoon into early this evening as
the better forcing for ascent gradually shifts to the east of our
region. A warm front is still expected to extend to the east of
the approaching surface low today, but will likely remain
positioned just south of the coast through this afternoon, with
surface based instability looking to remain located over the
northern Gulf to the south of the boundary through this afternoon.
Forecast soundings from the past few runs of the HRRR do show
elevated instability rooted around 850 mb and extending up to
around 250 mb across coastal portions of the CWA this morning into
early this afternoon. CAMs have also been consistent with
bringing a fairly strong semi-organized line of convection across
coastal portions of our area generally between 9-10 AM to 2-3 PM
or so today in the fashion of what we are currently seeing on
radar well to our west early this morning. The primary concern
with this line will be the potential for marginally severe hail,
potentially up to at least penny to quarter size given the
instability rooted in the hail growth zone aloft and favorable
deep layer shear. Gusty winds in excess of 40 mph will also be
possible with this line of storms. SPC continues to highlight a
Marginal (1 of 5) risk of severe storms near the coast today which
looks reasonable. Isolated to scattered showers and storms should
otherwise linger through tonight as the base of the main upper
trough moves overhead. Highs today are forecast to reach into the
mid 60s to near 70 degrees. Lows tonight will generally range in
the 50s.

For beach interests: The rip current risk will quickly ramp up
today, probably starting off MODERATE this morning before
increasing to HIGH by early this afternoon as easterly to
southeasterly surface flow strengthens ahead of the approaching
low pressure system. The HIGH rip current risk continues Friday
night through Saturday. Surf still looks to build to around 3-4
feet with a few breakers up to near 5 feet along area beaches
this afternoon through Saturday. /21

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A relatively brief break from rain will continue through Sunday
as upper ridging builds over the region. The surface "cool" front
will push offshore temporarily Saturday night into Sunday. This
will bring temporarily drier air into the area keeping us dry
through Monday. However, this ridge will quickly push eastward as
our next system begins to dig into the Central Plains. By Sunday
into Sunday night, winds a loft will quickly swing back out of the
southwest and moisture return will begin. Enjoy the rather drier
weather this weekend because it will not last long. Temperatures
will drop into the 40s Saturday night before climbing into the low
to mid 70s on Sunday. With moisture beginning to surge northward
expect lows Sunday night to climb into the low to mid 50s. BB/03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Our next system will quickly approach Monday night through
Tuesday as a potent trough ejects across the Central Plains into
the Great Lakes region. Deep southwesterly flow will allow for
moisture to surge northward ahead of this system; however, the
rather short time between the end week system and this one may
limit the quality of moisture available. Then again the Gulf of
Mexico is right there so it is almost always a good bet that
moisture will be available. Rain will push through Tuesday before
the surface cold front moves in and sweeps out Tuesday night. We
will dry out by mid week as a re-enforcing shortwave pushes even
drier air into the area Thursday.

Now we continue to monitor our early week system for the potential
for strong to severe storms. As mentioned earlier, moisture return
may be slow leading to rather limited instability. Along with the
potential lack of instability, the best jet dynamics are lifting out
by Tuesday morning and seem to be out of phase for our area. This
type of pattern usually results in a glancing blow type event or the
better storms outpacing the better instability leading to a soggy but
not severe day. Now if the system trends a little slower and maybe a
little more amplified then the better upper diffluence could line up
more with the better instability. If this were to happen then we
would likely be talking a little more impressive setup for severe
weather as impressive deep layer shear will be present. Right now
confidence is just too low and honestly will need to closely monitor
trends. Rip currents will be an issue though as strong southerly
winds develop out ahead of this system likely leading to life
threatening beach conditions Monday and Tuesday. BB/03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Small craft exercise caution headlines are in place across much of
the marine area today as easterly to southeasterly flow increases
ahead of an approaching surface low pressure system. A moderate
to strong offshore flow returns tonight through Saturday night
behind this passing surface feature. A Small Craft Advisory has
been issued from Saturday afternoon to late Saturday night for the
Gulf zones, Mobile Bay, and the Mississippi Sound where NW/N winds
are expected to increase to 15-25 kt with a few gusts around 30
kt.  A moderate to strong southeasterly flow is forecast to
develop again late Sunday and continue through Tuesday. A moderate
offshore flow follows Tuesday night following the passage of
another cold front. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  55  72  45  71  56  72  63 /  80  30   0   0   0   0   0  40
Pensacola   69  58  72  49  70  58  71  64 /  80  30   0   0   0   0   0  20
Destin      69  58  71  51  70  57  71  64 /  80  40   0   0   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   70  54  71  40  74  49  74  59 /  80  40   0   0   0   0   0  30
Waynesboro  67  53  70  40  73  51  71  60 /  90  40   0   0   0   0  10  60
Camden      68  54  68  39  73  51  72  59 /  80  50   0   0   0   0   0  40
Crestview   70  55  72  43  74  50  74  59 /  80  40  10   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through
     Saturday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through
     Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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