Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
306
FNUS74 KMOB 071026
FWSMOB
Spot Forecast for Chick Cpt 447 448...USFS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
526 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
...HIGH DISPERSION INDEX AROUND 77 EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
BURN AREA...
.DISCUSSION...
A subtle upper level disturbance moving over the area today will
bring a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Any storm
that is able to form today may bring strong wind gusts and large
hail. There remains high uncertainty with respect to if storms can
develop today, so confidence on storm development remains lower
than preferred. Southerly transport winds will persist today and
tomorrow along with mixing heights nearing 5kft for the next two
afternoons. Dispersions over the burn area will be generally good
this afternoon rising to good by Wednesday afternoon.
Fog potential and other remarks...Patchy fog with visibilities
down to 3 to 5 miles will be possible early this morning and again
late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Any patchy fog will
quickly dissipate an hour or two after sunrise.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...518-1463 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 20 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 7 to 9 meters/second.
Dispersion index....31 increasing to 66.
LVORI...............3.
Stability class.....3.
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........60 57 55 53 51 49 49 49 49 44
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 30 30 30 30 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3
Temp............74 78 82 85 88 89 88 89 88 88
RH..............90 79 69 63 55 54 55 52 54 54
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..6 9 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
20 FT wind gust.13 16 18 20 20 21 21 21 21 20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.9 3.1 3.9 4.3 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3
Mix hgt (km)....0.5 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Transp wind dir.S S S S S SSW S S S S
Transp wind spd.15 17 17 18 18 18 17 20 18 17
Trans wind dir..S S S S S SSW S S S S
Trans spd (m/s).7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8
Dispersion idx..31 58 57 67 69 70 66 67 62 62
LVORI...........4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1900, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...152-1311 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 18 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 4 to 8 meters/second.
Dispersion index....62 decreasing to 9.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....4.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........39 34 34 33 33 44 54 65 71 76 82 82
Weather cov.....CHC
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............87 84 80 78 75 74 74 73 73 73 72 72
RH..............55 61 69 76 84 87 90 93 93 93 97 97
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..12 12 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.20 18 17 17 16 15 15 14 13 13 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Mix hgt (km)....1.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S SSW S S S S
Transp wind spd.18 16 15 15 14 14 13 12 12 12 10 10
Trans wind dir..S S S S S S S SSW S S S S
Trans spd (m/s).8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4
Dispersion idx..62 11 10 10 9 11 11 10 9 8 7 7
LVORI...........1 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 8
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...183-1463 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 21 mph increasing to around 22 mph
late in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.South 5 to 10 meters/second.
Dispersion index....9 increasing to 77.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....3.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........82 82 82 82 82 71 60 49 43 37 31 32
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............73 73 74 78 83 86 88 91 92 92 91 89
RH..............93 93 93 85 72 65 59 52 51 49 50 54
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..7 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 16 16
20 FT wind gust.12 12 14 16 18 20 22 23 24 25 26 25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.8 1.6 2.2 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.4 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.2
Mix hgt (km)....0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.12 12 13 15 15 17 18 20 20 21 22 22
Trans wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
Trans spd (m/s).5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10
Dispersion idx..7 10 27 40 46 55 63 70 80 78 74 74
LVORI...........8 7 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
$$
Forecaster...Jonathan Howell (31)
Requested by...Ryan Barnett
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413300.0/MOB
.DELDT 05/07/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan.barnett@usda.gov