185
FNUS74 KMOB 022157
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for Chick Cpt 439 440 441...USFS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
457 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1700 CDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.


.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
possible Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. Minimum
relative humidity values remain above critical thresholds, around
55 percent tomorrow and 50 percent Saturday, at the burn site.
Transport winds then turn more southwesterly by Friday. Afternoon
dispersions will be fair to generally good with values around 40
on Friday becoming good around 60 on Saturday.

Fog potential and other remarks...Patchy fog is expected across
the burn area with visibilities possibly getting down to less than
1 mile.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...1829 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 14 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South around 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....72.
LVORI...............1.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      5PM
Sky (%).........56
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20
LAL.............2
Temp............85
RH..............48
20 FT wind dir..S
20 FT wind spd..8
20 FT wind gust.12
Mix hgt (kft)...6.0
Mix hgt (km)....1.8
Transp wind dir.S
Transp wind spd.14
Trans wind dir..S
Trans spd (m/s).6
Dispersion idx..72
LVORI...........1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
                    Patchy fog after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2100, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...152-1829 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 14 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 4 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....72 decreasing to 8.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........58  78  60  73  62  53  62  68  65  60  66  74
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH                             PTY PTY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW                              FOG FOG
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  10  10  10  0   0   0   10  0   0
LAL.............2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............84  80  76  74  72  71  70  70  69  68  68  68
RH..............51  60  71  76  84  87  90  90  93  97  100 97
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   13  12  10  9   9   8   9   9   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.12  20  17  16  14  14  13  14  14  10  9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...6.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Mix hgt (km)....1.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  14  13  10  12  10  9   9   9   8   8   8
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).6   6   6   4   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Dispersion idx..72  11  11  10  9   8   8   8   7   6   5   5
LVORI...........1   2   3   4   4   5   6   6   7   8   9   9

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2 until 1600, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...152-1158 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 13 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 3 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 39.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........76  69  57  57  57  60  57  76  80  74  74  80
Weather cov.....PTY PTY PTY                 SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....FOG FOG FOG                 RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  30  40  40  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   3   3
Temp............67  68  69  73  77  79  81  82  82  82  82  83
RH..............100 100 100 90  76  69  63  61  58  55  55  55
20 FT wind dir..SSE SSE S   S   SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   8   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.9   9   9   13  14  16  16  16  16  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.2 1.6 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.1 3.1
Mix hgt (km)....0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SSW SSW SSW S   SSW
Transp wind spd.7   8   7   8   10  13  10  13  13  12  10  10
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SSW SSW SSW S   SSW
Trans spd (m/s).3   4   3   4   4   6   4   6   6   5   4   4
Dispersion idx..4   6   12  19  29  36  39  41  42  39  36  36
LVORI...........9   8   6   4   3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...3
Requested by...Ryan Barnett
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412925.1/MOB
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan.barnett@usda.gov