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000
FXUS63 KMPX 181723
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1223 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some frost concerns tonight, but winds will act against a
  widespread frost

- Breezy and cool through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Light rain associated with an elevated area of deformation over
Iowa has spread up to near/just north of I-90 early this
morning. A few light sprinkles could make it as far north as the
Twin Cities metro later this morning, but slightly drier air to
the north will inhibit much further northward progress.
Otherwise this activity will push into western and southwestern
Wisconsin by early afternoon and clear out of our area.
Meanwhile a sheared mid-level upper wave will interact with cold
air advection and a slightly unstable low-level airmass over
western and central Minnesota later this afternoon. CAMs
guidance suggests some scattered shallow convective showers/snow
showers across this area later today which seems reasonable
given the set up. The moist/unstable layer is quite shallow
though, so any precip should be very scattered and light.

A large area of high pressure over Canada will maintain a
cooler-than-average airmass across the region through the end of
the week. This will bring temperatures slightly below freezing
starting tonight, which could lead to some patchy frost
concerns. After coordination with surrounding WFOs and state
climatologists, we`ve decided to start issuing frost/freeze
products a bit earlier than usual due to the warm winter and
resulting earlier growing season. However, winds tonight may be
high enough to prevent much widespread frost, so we will hold
off on any frost advisories for now. This cooler and breezy
pattern will continue through Saturday with highs in the 40s and
lows in the lower 30s. We`ll then rebound to near/slightly above
average temperatures heading into Sunday and the start of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The main question for the period will be the persistent of
lower-mid level cloud cover evident in satellite imagery pushing
southeast across the region. SCT/BKN 040-060 is likely through
this afternoon before we see clearing of the agitated cumulus
during the evening. Winds will remain 260-290 at around
10-15kts, with gusts to 25-28kts possible through around 00z
before falling off overnight. Further gusts of 25-28kts are
possible towards the end of the period during the daylight hours
on Friday.

KMSP...The main decision point was whether to go prevailing
SCT050 and TEMPO BKN050 or vice versa. Given upstream
observations, went prevailing SCT050 as confidence is higher in
staying SCT than maintaining a BKN CIG.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15kts.
MON...VFR early, then chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind S 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...TDH