432
FNUS73 KMPX 031149
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Appleton...FWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
649 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the Appleton Burn, temperatures will warm
quickly from the mid-50s at ignition time to the mid to upper 60s
by early afternoon. RH values will likely remain around 50% or
higher during the afternoon, but could potentially approach 40% if
temperatures overachieve by a few degrees. Cloud cover increases
during the afternoon with a slight chance of rain showers late
this afternoon & evening. Winds will be generally SW to WSW around
10 mph through mid afternoon. A wind shift is expected during the
late afternoon or evening, which will result in winds becoming
more northerly with speeds still around 10 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon. Chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........53 at ignition...Max 63.
RH..................54 percent at ignition...Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 9 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /28200 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /75400 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......CLR MCR PC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....                        SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............53  55  58  60  62  63  63  60  55  52  51  50
RH..............54  49  44  42  40  36  38  44  57  66  74  77
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  9   9   9   10  9   9   12  12  10  9   8
20 FT wind gust.16  14  14  14  16  14  14  17  17  16  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.5 5.4 4.6 2.6 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  W
Transp wind spd.15  15  13  14  15  16  14  15  15  15  12  13
Haines index....6   6   6   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers.
Temperature.........Min 42.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 62.
RH..................Min 43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (101000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 14 mph increasing to 16 to 20
                    mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dye
Requested by...Millette
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413067.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL phil_millette@fws.gov