444
FXUS66 KMTR 120539
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1039 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024

Warm temperatures persist through the weekend, with mostly clear
skies expected. Stratus will create cloudy conditions for areas
near the Bay and coastline. Patchy fog possible near the Monterey
Bay and San Mateo coastlines early tomorrow morning. Warm
temperatures and low heat risk persist through the upcoming work
week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024

Low clouds remain widespread over the Pacific and are pushing into
the Petaluma Gap, through the Golden Gate, across much of San
Francisco, and around the entire Monterey Bay region at this hour.
Look for cloud cover to continue to spread inland and into the North
Bay, East Bay, South Bay, and Salinas valleys overnight. Stratus
will gradually retreat back to the coast by mid-to-late morning on
Sunday. The forecast remains on track and no updates are anticipated
at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024

Its another beautiful May day with warm temperatures in the upper
80s expected throughout most inland areas today (perhaps a few low
90s scattered here and there), with mid to upper 60s expected for
highs along the coast through the weekend. Clear skies prevail
through much of the forecast period, though coastal stratus and fog
will impact much of the coastline overnight as stratus trickles
inland. Areas around the Monterey Bay, Salinas Valley, SF Bay, and
Sonoma coast are likely to see overcast skies tonight as a result of
this stratus, thereby reducing any chances of aurora viewing. Yep,
that`s right, you heard that correctly! Another chance for viewing
the Aurora Borealis will be possible tonight for areas that remain
clear, namely areas further inland away from the coastline or higher
in elevation above the fog and stratus if you live in a more coastal
zone. However, keep in mind that it is only a chance! Although the
ongoing increased solar activity increases our chances of seeing the
auroras this far south, it is not by any means a guarantee. So cross
your fingers and hope for the best! That being said, how about a few
aurora-viewing tips?

-Look to the northern horizon.

-Go to a very dark area where there is little cloud cover and little
light pollution. Ideally, a more rural area away from city lights.

-Take a few minutes to sit in the darkness and let your eyes adjust.
If the auroras are to be seen, you`ll spot them best after waiting 5-
10 minutes as your eyes will be better attuned to pick up any dim
lights, such as the auroras.

-If you still cannot see them after letting your eyes adjust, try
using a long exposure camera, or a phone camera on the nighttime
setting. If your eyes don`t pick it up first, your iPhone (or
android) surely will!

Although we in this particular office do not predict space weather
(just Earth weather!), for further information about what is causing
these auroras, we can point you to the right people to answer those
questions. For further information about the chances of seeing the
Aurora Borealis and the current geomagnetic storm, please take a
look at the Space Weather Prediction Center`s social media pages
(@NWSSWPC) or visit their web page at spaceweather.gov .

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 245 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024

Warm temperatures continue through much of the upcoming work
week, though cool off towards the latter half by a few degrees to
reach more seasonable temperatures. Expect high temps to be
predominantly in the low to mid 80s for interior regions, with
upper 50s and lower 60s along the coast line. Heat Risk is
expected to be low for most regions, with only the most sensitive
populations at risk for any heat-related illnesses. Nighttime lows
will be comfortable in the low to mid 50s for most regions.
Current CPC outlook places our region the next 6-10 days leaning
slightly above normal for temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024

Currently seeing a mix of VFR-IFR at the terminals as a deeper
marine layer of about 1,000 feet is being allowed to protrude
further inland. With the exception of LVK, all terminals will
experience a reduction in flight category within the TAF period.
Widespread VFR and breezy onshore flow will prevail by tomorrow
afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy northwesterly flow.
Low-end MVFR conditions will return to the terminal overnight with
clearing expected by 18Z. Winds will remain breezy out of the
west/northwest through the TAF period. MVFR conditions look to make
a return again tomorrow night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with northwesterly flow at
both terminals. Both terminals will improve to VFR by the afternoon.
Winds will remain breezy out of the west/northwest through the TAF
period. LIFR/IFR conditions are slated to return to MRY and SNS
respectively again tomorrow night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1035 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024

Widespread stratus continues across the coastal waters into
tomorrow morning. Fair weather and moderate northwesterly winds
with the occasional fresh gust continue through the end of the
weekend. Gustier conditions will develop across the northern
outer waters and along the Big Sur Coast beginning Sunday
afternoon. Northwest winds increase to a fresh breeze across all
of the coastal waters starting Monday as surface high pressure
over the Eastern Pacific Ocean builds and moves east. As winds
strengthen, significant wave heights will build through the early
work week reaching heights of 12-15 feet by mid-week before
beginning to diminish Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 719 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024

Long period southwest swell will lead to slightly elevated chances
for sneaker wave and rip current development this weekend.
Conditions are expected to stay below Beach Hazards Statement
criteria as swell height will only be between 1-2 feet. However, in
light of anomalously warm temperatures and increased likelihood of
people traveling to the coast, visitors to the beach should remember
to take safety precautions to prevent being caught by an unexpected
large wave and to never turn your back on the ocean.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 9 PM PDT Monday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM....AC
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Kennedy

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