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000
FXUS63 KOAX 170440
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1140 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong wind gusts of up to 50 mph are possible through 9 PM as
  gusty winds become enhanced by dying showers in eastern
  Nebraska and western Iowa.

- Cooler temperatures expected through the weekend with chances
  for rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

- Highs in the 70s return to start the upcoming work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Today and Tomorrow:

Radar trends over the last hour or so have decreased in intensity
across the board, with lightning trends following likewise. Looking
at a recent surface analysis, the surface low associated with the
large-scale system currently sits over northeast Nebraska, with
plenty of wraparound moisture in the low levels around the low and a
corridor of dry air over southeast Nebraska. Ongoing shower and
storm activity has become more progressive, and is moving
through far eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This cluster of
storms has helped kick eastward the main outflow boundary rather
than interacting with it to increase tornadic potential. SPC
Mesoanalysis fields indicate that there is still some CAPE to be
realized with the ambient vorticity, but without any stronger
storms due the messy environment, it seems as though it will go
unrealized. Regardless, ambient wind speeds have been allowing
areas with only weak storms reach over 50 mph due to strong
evaporative cooling, and this threat will continue into the
evening. Steep lapse rates in the mid-levels also indicate that
we could still see chances for quarter-sized hail through 8 PM
in northeast Nebraska. Remaining areas to watch for potential
hail and tornado activity are largely relegated into
western/northwestern Iowa, and will quickly diminish through 6
PM as the cooler airmass moves in.

Overnight, winds will continue to howl and gust from 30 to 40 mph,
with scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder continuing
through around 7 AM, with the area of showers constricting more and
more to northeast Nebraska where the center of the surface low and
associated forcing eject. Highs tomorrow will reach the 60s to
low 70s with additional chances for showers associated with a
passing through to the north after 7 PM, bringing light rainfall
back to the area through the morning hours.

Thursday and Beyond:

For Thursday afternoon onward, a cooler regime settles in for the
late week and weekend as the main axis of cooler 850 mb temperatures
swings through the Central Plains. Most rainfall activity should
miss the area either to the north or the south with the next chances
for rain coming to the area Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Latest IR satellite and surface observational data indicate the
southern extent of the MVFR low cloud deck (Fl015-025)
generally along and north of the Platte River. As such, it
appears that KLNK will maintain VFR conditions for the duration
of the forecast period, while KOFK will remain in MVFR
conditions until mid-morning on Wednesday. However, there is
greater uncertainty in prevailing conditions at KOMA overnight,
given the close proximity of the low-cloud edge. Consensus of
short-term model guidance suggests that KOMA will maintain
prevailing MVFR ceilings into Wednesday morning, and that`s how
we`ve leaned with the forecast. That being said, it`s possible
that prevailing VFR conditions could develop sooner than the
model indications.

Gusty northwest winds will persist overnight into Wednesday
morning before weakening by afternoon. Another weather system
will move into the region Wednesday night with the potential for
some shower activity at KOFK toward the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Mead