Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 282317
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
617 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected through the week with warming into the
  60s and 70s by Friday.

- Chances (40-70%)for precipitation return to the region late
  this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

500 hPa analysis shows a powerful shortwave trof approaching the
Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic states. Weak ridging has built
in behind it, leading to a significant warm-up for parts of the
Central Plains.

Surface analysis reveals a stationary front draped west to east
across the area with southeasterly flow and temps are generally
within a few degrees of 50F for areas north of the boundary. On
its other side, winds are south *west* erly. Temps there are as
warm as 70F along the Kansas state line. Overall, the day is
pleasant with wind speeds mostly under 10mph. Many agencies are
taking the opportunity to complete prescribed burns today.

Worth noting: Kansas`s Flint Hills regularly perform prescribed
fires in spring and we anticipate that the number of these fires
will be dramatically increasing over the next two weeks. Expect
southerly winds to bring occasional smoke and/or haze to parts
of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa as a result. The smokiest
days may fall shy of forecast highs due to any unanticipated
reduction in insolation.

Have brought overnight lows both tonight and Friday night close
to the 75th percentile of model solutions for the majority of
the area where snow cover no longer remains. Bias correction is
pushing solutions much too low.

.FRIDAY...

Kansas smoke should not affect the area by Saturday thanks to
the cold front progged to push through the area on Friday. Temps
will be cooler in northeast portions of the area with lingering
snow cover and the earlier arrival of the front. Expect the
front`s arrival at OFK by 2pm... near LNK and OMA by 6pm.. and
out of the CWA by midnight. This will leave a range of high
temperatures varying from upper 40s near Niobrara to mid-70s by
the time you get to FNB. We are forecasting negligible PoPs of
10% or less. Cloud cover will be much more prevalent.

.THE WEEKEND...

Temps will slip close to seasonal norms behind Friday`s
departing wave. The next waves of precipitation are possible
late Saturday night and again on Sunday night and Monday as a
positively tilted trof develops over the California coast and
southwest flow develops through the Central Plains. Sunday night
may bring a few rumbles of thunder with any shower activity -
especially in southwest Iowa.

Significant differences develop from the different
deterministic models with regards to timing, placement, and even
p-type. Letting the massive model mash-up we call the NBM do
its work, it suggests about 1 in 5 solutions would give 1" of
snow accumulation in Knox/Antelope/Cedar counties. FWIW, the
GFS seems most gung-ho. In reality, expect flakes mixing in
with rain and very little to no accumulation for most locales.
Giving timing concerns, have basically broad- brushed much of
Saturday night thru Monday for precip chances. Expect model
solutions to converge over the next 48 hours.

.NEXT WEEK...

Model consensus suggests a high probability of quickly warming
temperatures over next week`s second half with temps in the low
70s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
increasing clouds tonight in the FL150-250 layer. LLWS is
expected to develop around 29/05z and persist until 29/12z-29/14z
at the terminal locations. South or southeast winds will remain
below 12kt through the forecast period. The exceptions are for a
brief period of time late Friday morning at KOMA, and behind a
cold front at KOFK Friday afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Mead


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