Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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586 FXUS64 KOHX 042316 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 616 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Scattered showers and storms have been focused along the I-40 corridor today. We`ll likely see the peak of the activity over the next couple of hours, then coverage should fall off as these storms weaken and move northeast. While there is little forcing and shear to work with today, some updrafts could become strong, producing lightning and subsevere gusty winds. Activity will gradually taper off this afternoon. Cloud cover is keeping temperatures from becoming too warm too fast, but we could still see highs in the upper 70s and lows 80s before the day ends. Rain chances remain low tonight for most of the area. Our southern counties retain the best chance for an overnight shower and storm heading into Sunday. Temperatures should be slightly warmer Sunday afternoon as the bulk of any precip remains outside of Middle TN. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Showers and thunderstorms build back into the area late Sunday night into Monday as a shortwave swings into the Tennessee Valley from the southwest. There may be enough instability and shear to support a few strong storms on Monday, but severe isn`t expected at that point. The better potential for strong to possibly severe storms exists on Tuesday and Wednesday. A low pressure system over the northern plains will swing a front through the Mississippi Valley Tuesday. We`ll just see the tail end of that...which will help push SBCAPE values over 2000 j/kg in our western counties along with an increase in bulk shear values (around 45 knots). PWATS are expected to be between 1.25 and 1.4 inches as well, so some strong to severe storms aren`t out of the question that afternoon, especially over our west where instability appears to be greatest. Wednesday will be similar, but with the higher CAPE values pushing further into Middle TN. Another developing low pressure system is expected to stir up storms to our west...where the better upper support exists, but we`ll still be close enough for some strong to severe storms to develop Wednesday afternoon and overnight. The good news is that we should see a break in precip after Wednesday night`s system. Some models are slow to move the rain out, but at some point Thursday or Friday we should see a reprieve from the repeated rounds of showers. Temperatures are also expected to back off as we head into Friday thanks to a passing upper wave and northwest winds aloft. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish across the area over the next 1-2 hours. IFR/LIFR can be expected in any thunderstorms due to heavy rain, low cigs, and low vis. Overnight will be mainly dry but a few showers may linger in eastern areas. Patchy fog will develop after 09z mainly south of I-40 and west of I-65, MVFR/IFR conditions possible in any fog. Fog will lift by 13z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop again tomorrow after 21z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 86 65 82 / 20 40 80 90 Clarksville 63 83 64 80 / 20 40 80 80 Crossville 60 80 60 77 / 50 40 80 90 Columbia 62 86 63 82 / 20 40 80 80 Cookeville 61 81 63 78 / 40 40 80 90 Jamestown 60 81 60 77 / 40 40 80 90 Lawrenceburg 62 84 63 81 / 20 30 80 80 Murfreesboro 62 86 63 83 / 30 30 80 90 Waverly 62 84 63 81 / 10 50 80 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Whitehead LONG TERM....Whitehead AVIATION.....Mueller