Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
000
FXUS64 KOHX 231720
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1220 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 947 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024
All showers have left the mid state following last evening`s
trough passage. High pressure centered over the Upper Midwest is
now building into the region, so we can enjoy decreasing
cloudiness today, along with a brisk northerly wind and cooler
temperatures. Overnight readings will drop into the 30s, but we`ll
start to pick up some return flow tomorrow and appreciably warmer
weather. Much of Middle Tennessee will experience an elevated fire
danger tomorrow owing to increased wind speeds and very low RH
values.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 947 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024
Surface winds will further increase on Monday with the approach of
our next cold front. It is likely that we are going to need a
Wind Advisory for portions of Monday/Monday night/Tuesday as the
pressure gradient tightens up ahead of the surface boundary. The
NBM has consistently given us a high probability of >40 mph wind
gusts, especially on Monday night. Afternoon RH values on Monday
will remain very low in areas east of I-65, where we will once
again experience an elevated fire danger, and borderline red flag
danger along the Cumberland Plateau. We do expect widespread
showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday, although the
risk of severe storms remains very low. There will be some
lingering PoPs Tuesday evening, but the bulk of our QPF will occur
during the 24-hour period from 00Z Tuesday until 00Z Wednesday.
Storm total QPF for this event is rather substantial, ranging from
~1.25" along the Cumberland Plateau to ~2.5" around Waynesboro
and Lawrenceburg. The remainder of the week looks to be rain-free,
with only low rain chances for next weekend. Temperatures should
warm back up to the 70s by Saturday. At this time, the
atmospheric models point to a much more potent active weather
system the first part of the following week, which takes us into
April.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024
Other than some brief MVFR cigs at CSV for the start of this TAF
period, VFR conditions are expected at airports through tomorrow
morning with a few stratocumulus clouds this afternoon, and some
cirrus overnight into tomorrow. Strong and gusty north winds this
afternoon will subside and veer to northeast after 00Z, then
increase again and become easterly after 12Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 35 68 48 67 / 0 0 0 0
Clarksville 33 64 49 66 / 0 0 0 10
Crossville 30 62 42 61 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 33 67 48 66 / 0 0 0 0
Cookeville 32 65 46 63 / 0 0 0 0
Jamestown 29 63 42 63 / 0 0 0 0
Lawrenceburg 33 66 48 65 / 0 0 0 0
Murfreesboro 33 68 48 66 / 0 0 0 0
Waverly 34 66 50 66 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Shamburger