Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 251141
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
741 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area early this week gives way to a
weakening cold front moving through during Wednesday night.
Strengthening low pressure then passes offshore to our south
and east Thursday night into Friday, followed by weak low
pressure approaching from the west this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecast is mainly on track. Minor adjustments were made to
hourly temperatures and dewpoints based on the latest obs and
trends.

High pressure ridges in from the NE. Somewhat breezy, mainly at the
coastal areas, with NE winds. Sunny today, except some cirrus
filtering the sun across eastern LI and SE CT. Highs around 50. Low
level moisture then pushes in from the east with clouds increasing
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Shallow moisture trapped under an inversion keeps us cloudy Tuesday
through Wednesday. Weak isentropic lift arriving from the east
introduces a slight chance of light rain or drizzle over LI and
southern CT starting Tuesday afternoon. This threat then increases
and spreads west to the rest of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Moisture will be deepening west to east on Wednesday
ahead of a cold front. Threat of rain therefore trends higher
towards the western zones on Wednesday, but capped PoPs at 50%. Also
expecting areas of fog starting Tuesday night when the turbulent
mixing potential near the bottom of the low level inversion lessens.
We could be stuck with the fog well into the day Wednesday with
light winds and plenty of low level moisture.

High temperatures slightly below normal on Tuesday, then milder on
Wednesday with widespread 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weakening cold front will pass through Wednesday night, which will
bring the potential for some light rain. A wave of low pressure will
develop farther south along the boundary as an upper level trough
approaches. The low will strengthen quickly south and east of the
area with the upper level trough becoming negatively tilted. This
feature will bring light to moderate rain to the area Thursday into
Thursday night, with the higher chance for moderate rain across the
eastern half of the area. Guidance is in decent agreement showing
higher rainfall amounts for the eastern half of our area. See
hydrology section below.

The low will slowly exit to the northeast and keep the pressure
gradient over the area tight. Expect gusty NW-W conditions Thursday
night through Saturday, with periods of 30 to 35 mph gusts.

A quick moving shortwave approaches behind the departing system
along with associated weak surface low. Moisture and lift are
limited, with the higher values just southwest of the area. Stuck
with slight chance PoPs Saturday into Saturday night.

High temperatures wont vary too much through the long term period.
Highs will be right around or above normal, in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure noses down from the north today and slowly
retreats through tonight.

VFR today into tonight, with MVFR cigs moving in from east to
west early Tuesday morning.

Northeast winds today, with speeds increasing along the coast.
Gusts around 20kt-25kt are expected to develop this morning,
with the best chances at the coastal terminals. Gusts likely
continue tonight for KBDR, KISP and KGON. Less confident in
gusts west of these terminals tonight.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts mainly 20 to 25 KT today. Higher confidence at KJFK and
KLGA, but may be more occasional at KEWR and KTEB. A few higher
gusts are possible early this morning.

Lower confidence in gusts tonight. Will likely be more
occasional.

Amendments possible late tonight into early Tuesday morning
with MVFR cigs moving in.


OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: MVFR with a chance of light rain/drizzle. There is a chance
of IFR late in the day and Tuesday night.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of light rain and drizzle.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR with rain likely.

Friday: MVFR with a chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA for all but NY Harbor and western LI Sound today as a tighter
pressure gradient and stronger winds will be generally over the
eastern half of the waters. There may be occasional gusts to 25kt
for these two zones, but not enough to go with a SCA. Winds drop off
a little tonight, more so over most non-ocean waters, but given
elevated seas due to swell entering from the east, have extended the
SCA over eastern LI Sound through Tuesday. Gusts to 25kt also still
probable through at least tonight and perhaps into a part of
Tuesday. SCA on the ocean has been extended through Tuesday as well
for gusts and/or elevated seas due to swell. A gust or two to gale
force cannot be ruled out over the eastern ocean waters, but not
enough to upgrade to a gale warning. SCA on the ocean will likely
need to be extended into Tuesday night and perhaps even Wednesday
as a swell keeps seas elevated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Light to moderate rain is possible Thursday, mainly east of NYC and
the Lower Hudson Valley. NBM probabilities show about a 70% chance
for Long Island and Southern CT to see 1 inch of total rainfall and
a 30 to 40% chance for 2 inches. Given this will fall over a 24 to
36 period, there are no hydrologic concerns at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of high astronomical tides and swell/tidal piling is
expected to bring a round of widespread minor coastal flooding with
tonight`s high tide cycle, and the potential of additional
widespread minor flooding with both daytime and nighttime high tide
cycles on Tuesday.

For tonight, advisories have been issued from the south shore back
bays of SW Suffolk County westward through NY Harbor. Advisories are
also in effect for a large portion of western Long Island Sound.
There is even a chance that moderate flooding thresholds are briefly
touched for southern Nassau and Queens. Finally, statements have
been issued for SE and NW Suffolk county, where flooding is expected
to be only isolated.

The forecast for tonight was based heavily on what would be
approximately the 65th percentile of Stevens Institute NYHOPS, which
was overall higher than an even blend of ESTOFS, ETSS and 50th
percentile NYHOPS. A downward adjustment for both of Tuesday`s
cycles was made with some uncertainty in the amount of tidal piling
occurs after tonight`s first round of flooding, and at least in the
case for Tuesday daytime, the astronomical tides will be lower than
tonight`s. Additional minor flooding will nevertheless still be
possible for both of Tuesday`s cycles with the highest confidence of
occurrence across southern Nassau and Queens and lower NY
Harbor.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for NYZ071-073-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ072-074-075.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for NYZ080.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Tuesday for NYZ178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ332-350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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