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000
FXUS64 KOUN 191724
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The cooler-than-average weather will continue today behind the
cold front that moved through the area yesterday. At the surface
the winds will remain north or northeasterly through tonight, but
above the surface, southerly winds will develop with isentropic
lift above the cool airmass. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop this evening across north Texas and southern Oklahoma with
precipitation expanding north while becoming more widespread in
the south. Elevated instability looks to be sufficient to support
thunderstorms, but most models show it to be too low for severe...
although the NAM is much more aggressive with developing higher
elevated instability. It will be worth seeing what the 12Z
soundings look like and watch mesoanalysis trends given this NAM
signal, but at the moment the severe weather potential looks
relatively low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The showers and storms with the isentropic lift will continue into
Saturday and Saturday night until the mid-level trough currently
offshore in the Pacific moves east of the area. Saturday will be
cool with widespread clouds and scattered showers/storms and
Sunday will be cool as a surface ridge moves into the southern
Plains. Temperatures will begin to warm on Monday as the ridge
moves east and southerly low-level flow redevelops. Precipitation
chances redevelop Monday night as a cold front approaches from the
north, with precipitation chances lingering through Thursday with
another round of isentropic lift above the cold air mass once it
is spread through the area, then continue with the approach of an
mid-level trough mid-late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at all sites over the next 9 to
12 hours. The exception may be DUA/SPS where MVFR ceilings may
develop for a few hours this afternoon.

Later tonight (after 6z), moistening within an elevated frontal
zone should result in scattered shower and thunderstorm
development. This will likely persist into Saturday morning. MVFR
conditions are expected with the showers and storms which should
be more numerous across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas.
Shower and thunderstorm develop into central and northern Oklahoma
is less certain.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  49  56  44  61 /  60  70  40   0
Hobart OK         46  54  42  60 /  60  80  50   0
Wichita Falls TX  50  55  45  61 /  80 100  80   0
Gage OK           39  56  38  62 /  30  50  30   0
Ponca City OK     44  61  42  63 /  20  40  20   0
Durant OK         52  58  47  64 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...06