Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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021 FXUS65 KPSR 062158 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 258 PM MST Mon May 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue through the next week with an increase in gusty winds expected in some areas Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through midweek before rising above normal by the end of the week. By the weekend and into the beginning of next week, afternoon highs are expected to climb to around 100 degrees across parts of the lower deserts. && .DISCUSSION... The upper low responsible for bringing strong winds to the Southwest over the weekend is now seen ejecting northeast into the Northern Plains this afternoon. Much lighter winds have prevailed locally, though temperatures will remain below seasonal normals for today. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid 80s across the lower deserts before returning to near normal readings tomorrow. Mostly clear skies will continue as dry northwesterly flow aloft persists. Going forward, ensemble and deterministic guidance favor a troughing pattern persisting over the Desert Southwest through much of the week. Guidance suggest that shortwave energy pushing into the Pacific Northwest will dig southward into the Great Basin Tuesday. As this occurs, a piece of energy from the upper low currently moving into the Northern Plains will split off and retrograde toward the Desert Southwest before phasing with the aforementioned shortwave energy during the middle part of the week. The other piece of energy associated with the upper low will continue eastward. The local response to this will be a tightening gradient heading into the middle part of the week. Increasing gusts will begin Tuesday afternoon as the strongest gusts favor higher terrain areas across Arizona with some gusts up to 25-30 mph possible across southern Gila County. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, strong low-level northerly winds will increase down the Lower Colorado River Valley, though the timing of this isn`t ideal for better momentum transfer to the surface. Nonetheless, gusty winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible (>40%) with the strongest winds favoring ridgetop locations along/near the Lower Colorado River Valley. Additionally, the strong northerly wind component will promote CAA into southeast California and southwest Arizona where highs are forecast to cool into the mid/upper 80s to around 90 degrees Wednesday. As we head into the end of the week, the upper level circulation over the Southwest will gradually weaken with heights gradually rising over the region. Temperatures will respond accordingly, rising into the mid to upper 90s by the weekend and potentially to around 100 degrees in some lower desert locales by Sunday/Monday. Otherwise, dry conditions will persist through the next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1740Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Winds will follow their typical diurnal tendencies through the TAF period. Wind speeds will pick up a little bit this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon (around 8-13 kt), otherwise wind speeds will generally be aob 5 kt. Skies will remain clear through the TAF period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Northerly winds will become westerly/southwesterly this evening through the overnight hours before becoming southerly at the tail-end of the TAF period. Wind speeds will generally be aob 8 kt, with periods of variability expected, especially at KBLH. Skies will remain clear through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions and overall light winds outside of afternoon breeziness will continue through the rest of today. The weather pattern into the middle of the week will lead to another round of breezy conditions starting Tuesday with afternoon gusts commonly reaching to around 20 mph to as high as 25-30 mph in some locations. Strong gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible (>40%) overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for areas along the Lower Colorado River Valley with the strongest winds favoring ridgetops. Temperatures will warm back to around seasonal normals going into the middle part of the week with highs as warm as the lower 90s across the lower deserts. MinRHs will be in the 5-10% range through at least mid week across the lower deserts to around 10-15% over higher terrain areas, with overnight recoveries between 20-40%. Winds during the latter half of the week will return to more typical seasonal trends with daily afternoon gusts up to around 20 mph. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Berislavich FIRE WEATHER...Smith/Kuhlman