Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
953
UXUS97 KPUB 081205
SRGPUB
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0605 MDT Wednesday, May 8, 2024
This forecast is for the Air Force Academy for Wednesday, May 8, 2024:
If the trigger temperature of 36.9 F/2.7 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1119 ft/min (5.7 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 20732 ft MSL (13124 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 58.0 F/14.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0745 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1600 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ Between 20 mph and 30 mph
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 18789 ft MSL (11181 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 05/09..... Poor
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:52:25 / 19:59:05 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 6 min 40 sec (846 min 40 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:55:45 MDT... 68.38 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 05/08/2024 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 16088 ft MSL (8480 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 19009 ft MSL (11400 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +2.7
K index......................... -14.8
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -51.7 -61.1 245 25 13 2.8 1.6 M M M M M
45000 -47.4 -53.3 280 42 22 1.7 0.9 M M M M M
40000 -47.8 -54.0 250 55 28 -0.3 -0.2 M M M M M
38000 -47.8 -54.0 245 65 34 0.7 0.4 M M M M M
36000 -47.4 -53.3 250 77 40 0.7 0.4 M M M M M
34000 -47.0 -52.6 250 89 46 2.3 1.3 M M M M M
32000 -44.4 -47.9 250 93 48 4.3 2.3 M M M M M
30000 -41.9 -43.4 245 97 50 4.7 2.6 M M M M M
29000 -40.3 -40.5 245 93 48 5.4 3.0 26.8 80.2 9.6 M M
28000 -38.6 -37.5 245 89 46 5.4 3.0 25.1 77.2 8.4 M M
27000 -37.0 -34.6 250 84 43 5.4 3.0 23.5 74.4 7.2 M M
26000 -35.4 -31.7 250 80 41 5.4 3.0 22.0 71.5 6.1 M M
25000 -33.8 -28.8 250 76 39 5.4 3.0 20.3 68.5 4.7 M M
24000 -32.1 -25.8 250 72 37 5.4 3.0 18.7 65.7 3.5 M M
23000 -30.4 -22.7 250 69 35 6.5 3.6 17.3 63.1 2.4 M M
22000 -28.0 -18.4 255 66 34 6.4 3.5 15.7 60.3 1.1 M M
21000 -26.1 -15.0 255 65 33 6.6 3.6 14.6 58.3 0.2 M M
20000 -24.6 -12.3 260 62 32 4.7 2.6 13.0 55.4 -1.3 1058 5.4
19500 -23.8 -10.8 260 61 31 4.8 2.6 12.1 53.8 -2.0 1022 5.2
19000 -23.1 -9.6 260 59 30 4.8 2.6 11.3 52.3 -2.8 986 5.0
18500 -22.4 -8.3 260 58 30 4.7 2.6 10.5 50.9 -3.5 950 4.8
18000 -21.7 -7.1 260 57 29 5.4 3.0 9.7 49.5 -4.2 913 4.6
17500 -20.9 -5.6 260 56 29 5.5 3.0 9.0 48.1 -4.9 874 4.4
17000 -20.1 -4.2 260 56 29 6.2 3.4 8.3 46.9 -5.6 835 4.2
16500 -19.0 -2.2 265 54 28 7.1 3.9 7.8 46.1 -6.1 789 4.0
16000 -18.0 -0.4 265 53 27 7.1 3.9 7.4 45.3 -6.5 742 3.8
15500 -17.2 1.0 270 50 26 4.1 2.3 6.7 44.0 -7.2 703 3.6
15000 -16.5 2.3 270 47 24 4.4 2.4 5.8 42.4 -8.0 668 3.4
14500 -15.8 3.6 275 44 23 4.3 2.4 4.9 40.8 -8.9 634 3.2
14000 -15.2 4.6 275 41 21 4.0 2.2 4.0 39.3 -9.8 600 3.0
13500 -14.3 6.3 275 38 19 9.4 5.1 3.4 38.2 -10.4 559 2.8
13000 -12.8 9.0 270 34 18 11.6 6.4 3.5 38.3 -10.4 499 2.5
12500 -11.9 10.6 260 30 15 4.9 2.7 3.0 37.4 -11.0 456 2.3
12000 -10.5 13.1 260 28 15 9.0 5.0 2.9 37.3 -11.2 399 2.0
11750 -9.8 14.4 255 28 14 10.1 5.5 2.9 37.2 -11.2 371 1.9
11500 -9.0 15.8 260 27 14 9.8 5.4 3.0 37.3 -11.2 341 1.7
11250 -8.4 16.9 260 28 14 7.7 4.2 2.9 37.2 -11.3 314 1.6
11000 -7.9 17.8 265 28 14 6.9 3.8 2.7 36.8 -11.6 291 1.5
10750 -7.3 18.9 265 28 15 6.8 3.7 2.4 36.4 -11.8 269 1.4
10500 -6.9 19.6 270 29 15 4.9 2.7 2.2 35.9 -12.2 248 1.3
10250 -6.6 20.1 275 30 15 6.3 3.5 1.8 35.2 -12.6 230 1.2
10000 -6.0 21.2 275 29 15 8.4 4.6 1.6 35.0 -12.8 205 1.0
9750 -5.4 22.3 275 29 15 8.3 4.6 1.5 34.7 -12.9 180 0.9
9500 -4.7 23.5 275 28 14 8.9 4.9 1.4 34.6 -13.1 153 0.8
9250 -4.1 24.6 275 27 14 9.2 5.1 1.4 34.5 -13.1 126 0.6
9000 -3.3 26.1 280 26 14 10.7 5.9 1.4 34.5 -13.2 96 0.5
8750 -2.5 27.5 280 26 13 9.8 5.4 1.5 34.6 -13.1 65 0.3
8500 -1.9 28.6 280 25 13 8.0 4.4 1.4 34.5 -13.3 38 0.2
8250 -1.3 29.7 280 24 12 8.9 4.9 1.3 34.3 -13.4 12 0.1
8000 -0.6 30.9 280 23 12 7.3 4.0 1.2 34.1 -13.5 M M
7750 -0.3 31.5 280 18 10 0.1 0.0 0.8 33.4 -14.0 M M
7500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
05/08/2024 at 0900 MDT | 05/08/2024 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +3.6 LI... +4.6 | CAPE... +8.7 LI... +6.1
CINH... -1.2 K Index... -18.0 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -8.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -52.3 -62.1 235 22 11 2.6 1.5 | -52.3 -62.1 250 18 9 2.5 1.4
45000 -48.4 -55.1 280 22 11 1.9 1.1 | -48.6 -55.5 265 20 10 2.0 1.1
40000 -46.4 -51.5 255 45 23 1.3 0.7 | -45.9 -50.6 250 42 22 1.7 0.9
38000 -45.6 -50.1 255 55 28 1.2 0.6 | -45.3 -49.5 255 49 25 0.2 0.1
36000 -44.9 -48.8 255 60 31 1.2 0.6 | -45.2 -49.4 255 54 28 0.2 0.1
34000 -44.2 -47.6 255 66 34 1.6 0.9 | -45.1 -49.2 260 58 30 -0.1 -0.0
32000 -42.9 -45.2 250 64 33 2.1 1.2 | -45.3 -49.5 265 56 29 -0.3 -0.2
30000 -41.6 -42.9 250 62 32 2.7 1.5 | -45.5 -49.9 270 53 27 2.8 1.5
29000 -40.3 -40.5 250 59 30 4.7 2.6 | -43.6 -46.5 270 49 25 6.8 3.8
28000 -38.9 -38.0 255 55 28 4.7 2.6 | -41.5 -42.7 275 44 23 6.9 3.8
27000 -37.5 -35.5 255 51 26 4.7 2.6 | -39.4 -38.9 280 40 21 6.9 3.8
26000 -35.9 -32.6 255 47 24 6.1 3.4 | -37.1 -34.8 285 37 19 8.5 4.6
25000 -34.1 -29.4 260 42 22 6.1 3.3 | -34.6 -30.3 290 34 17 8.5 4.7
24000 -32.3 -26.1 260 38 19 6.1 3.3 | -32.0 -25.6 295 31 16 8.5 4.7
23000 -30.5 -22.9 265 34 17 5.7 3.1 | -29.0 -20.2 300 27 14 7.5 4.1
22000 -28.3 -18.9 270 29 15 5.8 3.2 | -26.8 -16.2 300 25 13 7.5 4.1
21000 -26.6 -15.9 275 26 13 5.9 3.2 | -24.6 -12.3 305 22 11 7.4 4.1
20000 -25.0 -13.0 280 24 13 4.9 2.7 | -22.5 -8.5 305 20 10 7.0 3.8
19500 -24.3 -11.7 275 24 13 4.9 2.7 | -21.4 -6.5 305 19 10 7.0 3.8
19000 -23.6 -10.5 275 24 12 4.9 2.7 | -20.4 -4.7 310 18 9 7.0 3.8
18500 -22.8 -9.0 275 24 12 5.0 2.8 | -19.3 -2.7 310 17 9 7.5 4.1
18000 -22.2 -8.0 275 24 12 2.5 1.4 | -18.6 -1.5 310 17 9 2.0 1.1
17500 -21.9 -7.4 275 22 11 2.2 1.2 | -18.2 -0.8 315 17 9 2.5 1.4
17000 -21.6 -6.9 280 21 11 2.4 1.3 | -17.9 -0.2 315 17 9 1.3 0.7
16500 -21.2 -6.2 280 19 10 2.7 1.5 | -17.8 -0.0 315 17 9 0.5 0.3
16000 -20.8 -5.4 285 16 8 2.8 1.6 | -17.8 -0.0 315 17 9 0.9 0.5
15500 -20.1 -4.2 295 16 8 7.0 3.9 | -17.5 0.5 315 17 9 2.8 1.5
15000 -19.1 -2.4 305 16 8 6.5 3.6 | -17.1 1.2 310 16 8 2.3 1.3
14500 -18.0 -0.4 310 17 9 8.6 4.7 | -16.2 2.8 310 16 8 9.7 5.3
14000 -16.7 1.9 315 19 10 8.6 4.7 | -14.9 5.2 315 15 8 9.0 5.0
13500 -15.4 4.3 320 22 11 8.8 4.8 | -13.5 7.7 315 15 8 9.6 5.3
13000 -14.1 6.6 315 24 13 8.2 4.5 | -12.1 10.2 315 15 8 8.8 4.8
12500 -12.5 9.5 315 26 13 10.7 5.9 | -10.3 13.5 315 15 8 12.2 6.7
12000 -11.4 11.5 315 28 14 7.6 4.2 | -9.0 15.8 315 15 8 8.3 4.6
11750 -10.8 12.6 310 29 15 8.3 4.6 | -8.4 16.9 315 15 8 9.7 5.3
11500 -10.1 13.8 310 30 15 9.7 5.3 | -7.5 18.5 315 15 8 11.0 6.0
11250 -9.4 15.1 305 29 15 8.8 4.8 | -6.8 19.8 315 15 8 9.5 5.2
11000 -8.8 16.2 305 28 14 8.1 4.4 | -6.1 21.0 315 15 8 9.2 5.1
10750 -8.2 17.2 300 27 14 8.4 4.6 | -5.4 22.3 315 15 8 9.4 5.1
10500 -7.5 18.5 300 26 13 8.2 4.5 | -4.7 23.5 320 15 7 9.3 5.1
10250 -6.9 19.6 295 24 12 9.5 5.2 | -4.0 24.8 320 14 7 10.0 5.5
10000 -6.1 21.0 295 24 12 10.8 5.9 | -3.2 26.2 320 14 7 10.8 5.9
9750 -5.3 22.5 290 23 12 10.2 5.6 | -2.4 27.7 320 14 7 10.3 5.6
9500 -4.6 23.7 290 23 12 9.7 5.3 | -1.6 29.1 320 14 7 9.8 5.4
9250 -3.9 25.0 290 22 11 10.0 5.5 | -0.9 30.4 320 14 7 10.2 5.6
9000 -3.1 26.4 290 22 11 11.2 6.1 | -0.1 31.8 320 14 7 11.2 6.1
8750 -2.2 28.0 290 21 11 10.7 5.9 | 0.8 33.4 320 14 7 11.0 6.0
8500 -1.5 29.3 290 21 11 10.2 5.6 | 1.6 34.9 320 14 7 11.1 6.1
8250 -0.7 30.7 290 21 11 9.4 5.2 | 2.4 36.3 320 14 7 9.5 5.2
8000 0.0 32.0 290 20 10 12.3 6.8 | 3.2 37.8 320 13 7 14.0 7.7
7750 1.3 34.3 290 18 9 23.4 12.9 | 4.8 40.6 320 13 6 30.7 16.8
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
05/08/2024 at 1500 MDT | 05/08/2024 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +11.2 LI... +4.9 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +1.6
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +6.1 | CINH... -1.1 K Index... +14.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -51.3 -60.3 245 15 7 1.6 0.9 | -52.3 -62.1 235 8 4 1.9 1.0
45000 -48.9 -56.0 255 18 9 1.0 0.5 | -49.5 -57.1 255 14 7 -0.2 -0.1
40000 -48.3 -54.9 250 42 22 0.4 0.2 | -49.5 -57.1 250 42 21 -0.0 -0.0
38000 -48.2 -54.8 250 50 26 -0.1 -0.0 | -49.5 -57.1 250 51 26 0.1 0.1
36000 -48.2 -54.8 255 57 29 -0.1 -0.0 | -49.4 -56.9 250 58 30 0.1 0.1
34000 -48.2 -54.8 255 63 32 1.9 1.0 | -49.3 -56.7 245 64 33 1.9 1.1
32000 -46.6 -51.9 260 61 31 2.7 1.5 | -47.2 -53.0 250 51 26 3.1 1.7
30000 -44.9 -48.8 260 58 30 5.5 3.0 | -44.9 -48.8 255 41 21 8.5 4.6
29000 -42.9 -45.2 265 53 27 6.5 3.6 | -42.6 -44.7 255 38 20 7.9 4.3
28000 -41.0 -41.8 270 48 25 6.5 3.6 | -40.2 -40.4 255 35 18 7.9 4.3
27000 -39.0 -38.2 270 44 22 6.4 3.5 | -37.8 -36.0 255 33 17 7.9 4.3
26000 -36.7 -34.1 275 39 20 8.4 4.6 | -35.3 -31.5 260 32 17 8.7 4.8
25000 -33.5 -28.3 275 33 17 8.5 4.6 | -32.7 -26.9 260 32 16 8.7 4.8
24000 -31.0 -23.8 275 28 14 8.4 4.6 | -30.1 -22.2 260 31 16 8.8 4.8
23000 -28.3 -18.9 270 27 14 9.2 5.0 | -27.8 -18.0 260 31 16 7.3 4.0
22000 -25.6 -14.1 260 27 14 9.2 5.0 | -25.6 -14.1 265 31 16 7.3 4.0
21000 -22.8 -9.0 255 28 14 8.3 4.5 | -23.5 -10.3 265 31 16 7.2 4.0
20000 -20.8 -5.4 260 29 15 6.5 3.6 | -22.2 -8.0 260 30 16 3.6 2.0
19500 -19.8 -3.6 260 29 15 6.5 3.6 | -21.4 -6.5 260 30 15 3.7 2.0
19000 -18.9 -2.0 260 29 15 6.5 3.6 | -20.9 -5.6 255 29 15 3.7 2.1
18500 -17.9 -0.2 265 30 15 5.9 3.3 | -20.3 -4.5 255 29 15 4.4 2.4
18000 -17.6 0.3 265 28 14 -1.0 -0.5 | -19.6 -3.3 250 26 13 5.3 2.9
17500 -17.7 0.1 265 26 13 -0.6 -0.3 | -18.8 -1.8 250 22 11 5.1 2.8
17000 -17.7 0.1 265 23 12 1.3 0.7 | -17.9 -0.2 245 18 9 7.4 4.1
16500 -17.5 0.5 265 19 10 1.9 1.1 | -16.8 1.8 245 14 7 7.3 4.0
16000 -17.3 0.9 265 15 8 4.3 2.4 | -15.8 3.6 245 11 5 6.6 3.6
15500 -16.2 2.8 275 12 6 7.7 4.2 | -14.9 5.2 245 8 4 6.4 3.5
15000 -15.1 4.8 280 9 5 8.0 4.4 | -13.9 7.0 240 6 3 7.2 4.0
14500 -13.7 7.3 290 8 4 9.7 5.3 | -12.7 9.1 240 4 2 8.5 4.7
14000 -12.2 10.0 295 8 4 9.6 5.3 | -11.4 11.5 245 3 1 8.6 4.7
13500 -10.8 12.6 300 7 4 9.6 5.3 | -10.1 13.8 270 1 1 8.8 4.8
13000 -9.3 15.3 305 7 4 8.5 4.7 | -8.8 16.2 355 2 1 10.2 5.6
12500 -7.4 18.7 305 7 4 12.8 7.0 | -7.2 19.0 005 2 1 9.0 4.9
12000 -6.2 20.8 310 7 4 7.6 4.2 | -6.0 21.2 015 4 2 8.1 4.5
11750 -5.6 21.9 310 7 4 10.2 5.6 | -5.4 22.3 020 5 2 9.0 4.9
11500 -4.7 23.5 315 7 4 11.6 6.3 | -4.6 23.7 015 5 2 9.8 5.4
11250 -4.0 24.8 315 7 4 8.9 4.9 | -3.9 25.0 015 5 3 9.7 5.3
11000 -3.3 26.1 315 7 4 9.3 5.1 | -3.2 26.2 020 6 3 9.7 5.3
10750 -2.6 27.3 320 7 3 9.1 5.0 | -2.5 27.5 020 6 3 8.6 4.7
10500 -1.9 28.6 320 7 3 9.0 4.9 | -1.9 28.6 015 6 3 7.7 4.2
10250 -1.2 29.8 320 7 3 9.7 5.3 | -1.2 29.8 015 7 3 10.3 5.7
10000 -0.5 31.1 325 7 3 10.4 5.7 | -0.4 31.3 020 7 4 11.7 6.4
9750 0.3 32.5 325 7 3 9.9 5.5 | 0.4 32.7 020 7 4 9.5 5.2
9500 1.0 33.8 325 7 3 9.5 5.2 | 1.1 34.0 015 7 4 8.4 4.6
9250 1.8 35.2 330 7 3 10.2 5.6 | 1.7 35.1 015 7 4 9.7 5.3
9000 2.6 36.7 330 7 3 11.3 6.2 | 2.5 36.5 015 7 4 10.9 6.0
8750 3.4 38.1 330 7 3 10.7 5.9 | 3.3 37.9 015 7 4 9.9 5.4
8500 4.2 39.6 335 7 3 10.4 5.7 | 4.0 39.2 015 7 4 9.7 5.3
8250 4.9 40.8 335 7 3 9.4 5.2 | 4.7 40.5 015 7 4 9.0 4.9
8000 5.7 42.3 335 7 3 12.3 6.8 | 5.4 41.7 015 7 4 10.0 5.5
7750 7.0 44.6 340 6 3 22.9 12.6 | 6.3 43.3 015 7 3 14.6 8.0
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC). It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at
North Latitude: 38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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