Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 262226
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
626 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers diminish throughout this evening in advance of a cold front.
The front crosses Wednesday with isolated showers in the mountains.
Building high pressure then brings mainly dry weather through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 PM Tuesday...

Updated PoPs to represent increased rain chances early this
evening across portions of the region as a warm front quickly
slides north of the area. Drier conditions will build in quickly
thereafter. Much of the forecast area has received a beneficial
wetting to soaking rain today, with 0.50-1.00" across much of
the central/northern CWA (locally higher in spots). Moderate
rises on the susceptible creeks/rivers in Washington County,
Ohio (Duck Creek / Little Muskingum River) are currently being
observed. Will continue to monitor this, as there is the potential
for gauge levels to approach Minor Flood Stage later this
evening into tonight. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 123 PM Tuesday...

Lingering light showers continue as a weak cold front arrives to the
Middle Ohio valley early this evening. Little rain accumulations are
expected with this front. The cold front slowly exits east of the
Appalachians Wednesday evening. Surface high pressure builds from
the west providing relatively dry weather conditions later on
Wednesday. A low chance for lingering rain showers exist for
Wednesday mainly near the mountains. Although clouds could clear out
across the lowlands Wednesday night and Thursday, low level clouds
will remains over the higher elevations through the period.

A mild night is expected with about 10 degrees above normal
temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will generally be in mid 60s to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1248 PM Tuesday...

Low pressure will exit to the east Thursday and high pressure will
build back in from the west with increasing 500-mb heights. This
should allow for some gradual clearing areawide with sunshine
returning by the late morning and early afternoon hours. Thursday`s
temperatures will run on the cooler side for late March with highs
in the upper 50s across the lowlands and the lower 50s in the
mountains. Average highs for late March are generally in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1248 PM Tuesday...

Dry conditions are expected Friday, but winds will turn gusty as low
pressure strengthens off of the Atlantic coast and high pressure
expands over the Southeast, creating a strong pressure gradient over
our area. The highest threat of gusty winds remains in the higher
elevations, but the lowlands will also be quite breezy. Rain chances
will increase again Saturday as a wave of upper-level energy
approaches from the west and a stationary front drapes across the
middle Ohio Valley and the central Appalachians. From Saturday
onward, we`ll enter into an unsettled pattern with rain chances just
about each day heading into the new work week. Models currently show
a large area of low pressure tracking through the area next Tuesday,
with high pressure building behind the front by the middle of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 123 PM Tuesday...

Periods of rain showers continue lifting north across the area
as a cold front crosses slowly east through tonight. Brief
periods of MVFR/IFR conditions possible under heavier showers.
Otherwise, precipitation will fall from an upper cloud deck,
gradually lowering into MVFR/IFR ceilings mainly over the higher
elevations tonight into Wednesday morning.

Guidance suggests strong wind above 2,000 feet, mixing down
some this afternoon especially along showers. Expect winds to
subside this evening and tonight, as the atmosphere tries to
decouple. This will allow for LLWS to occur at times at least
across the middle Ohio Valley.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Winds will fluctuate. Brief MVFR
visibility and perhaps ceiling are possible through this
evening. Timing of MVFR ceilings tonight may vary, and there is
a chance MVFR mist to form.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible early Thursday morning in and near
the mountains with low stratus.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 620 PM Tuesday...

Scattered showers move across the region through this evening in
advance of a cold front, with much of the area having received a
wetting to soaking rain today. Breezy conditions across portions of
the area will gradually taper throughout tonight, with the same
being true for rainfall. The potential for a few lingering showers
continues in and near the mountains into Wednesday as the cold front
gradually moves through.

Building high pressure will then bring a mainly dry finish to the
work week amid near seasonable temperatures. Relative humidity
values lower into the 25-35% range Thursday afternoon, but under
generally light surface flow. Friday afternoon will be on the breezy
side amid relative humidity values in the 30-40% range. The chance
for showers returns this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ
FIRE WEATHER...GW


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