National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171754
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1254 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

We continue to see some spotty showers across portions of NC and
NE LA this morning along a residual 850mb theta-e axis that should
continue to weaken as we go through the day. We continue to
advertise a slight chance of showers in this area and will hang on
to this for the remainder of the day. Hourly forecast temperatures
are in the ballpark with observed 16z readings so will hold onto
the current forecast without making any changes attm.

13

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Surface high pressure across the northeast Gulf of Mexico combined
with a surface low across the Texas Panhandle will allow for an
enhanced pressure gradient that will support persistent southerly
flow and continued moisture advection across the region today.
Near zonal flow aloft will allow for near neutral stability
with a few showers possible across northeast Louisiana this
afternoon along a weak surface boundary. Temperatures today are
forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s.

Pattern to remain nearly unchanged overnight. Overcast conditions
to prevail areawide with temperatures forecast to fall to around
70 degrees.

A 1020MB surface high to surge south across the Plains on Thursday
forcing the previously mentioned surface low across the Texas
Panhandle to eject northeast leaving a cold front in its wake
along the leading edge of the approaching surface high. Front to
move into the Red River Valley of north Texas on Thursday
afternoon. Diurnal heating, combined with dewpoint values in the
upper 60s, will aid in destabilizing the environment along and
ahead of the front with strong to severe thunderstorms possible
along and north of I-30 across northeast Texas, southwest Arkansas
and southeast Oklahoma. Damaging winds and hail will be the main
threats. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Cold front is forecast to stall latitudinally across the ArkLaTex
from Friday through Sunday as upper-level flow becomes parallel to
the front in the wake of the departing vertically stacked mid-
level cyclone that will shift northeast into Canada. Instability
associated with the lingering front will be marginal on Friday
into Saturday. However, a shortwave trough will shift east across
central and south Texas allowing for widespread rain across the
ArkLaTex from Saturday into Sunday with conditions improving
through early next week as upper-level flow becomes northwest.

With a seasonably cool surface high prevailing building behind the
cold front and persisting across the region through most of the
long-term period, chilly overnight lows can be expected through
the weekend. By Monday morning, when the surface high becomes
centered over the ArkLaTex, overnight lows will average in the
low to mid 40s. Otherwise, high temperatures in the lower to mid
60s expected on Sunday. As the surface high shifts east, expect a
gradual warming trend through midweek. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Varying low, mid and high clouds continue to advance across the
airspace this afternoon, supporting mostly MVFR conditions. Recent
satellite imagery shows some scattering across area terminals so
brief VFR should prevail ahead of another return to BKN/OVC this
evening, resulting in a return to MVFR, possibly even some IFR
where VIS drops due to possible BR development as a result of the
low CIG layer promoted in guidance and height cross analysis.
This should carry through most of the overnight period before a
rebound in conditions after sunrise, but not by much as low clouds
and OVC should prevail.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  87  68  79 /  10  30  30  20
MLU  68  83  66  80 /  10  30  20  20
DEQ  66  83  58  71 /  10  30  60  20
TXK  69  84  64  73 /  10  30  60  20
ELD  66  84  63  74 /  10  40  50  20
TYR  70  85  65  78 /  10  30  30  20
GGG  70  85  66  79 /  10  30  30  20
LFK  70  87  67  85 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...53