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000
FXUS64 KSHV 200917
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
417 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Very diffuse frontal boundary has cleared our southernmost zones
this morning with spotty post-frontal showers starting to expand
across parts of East Texas and North Louisiana. This trend will
continue to ramp up over the next 24 hours in terms of convective
coverage and intensity as a series of upstream shortwave impulses
translate eastward across Texas into the Lower MS Valley. Although
convection will gradually overspread the entire region later today
and tonight, pockets of heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms
are expected to become more focused along and south of the I-30
corridor where 1-2 inches of rainfall will be common along with
localized higher amounts near 3+ inches.

The bulk of this rainfall should occur from this afternoon through
early Sunday morning before the primary trough axis finally pivots
overhead and gradually brings an end to the rainfall. Cloud cover
will eventually follow suit by Sunday afternoon with at least some
sunshine returning late in the day. As a result, afternoon warming
will allow high temperatures to climb into the 60s areawide versus
slightly milder rain-cooled air across the majority of the region
today. The exception will be across our far southern zones closer
to the frontal boundary where cool air advection hasn`t been quite
as pronounced given how diffuse the front has become. Regardless,
we will maintain below average temperatures areawide with morning
lows bottoming out in the 40s near 50 degrees across the region.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Gradual clearing of cloud cover will continue on Sunday night with
even cooler temperatures expected on Monday morning. Lower to mid
40s will be common across the entire region, likely the last time
we`ll see temperatures in this range until sometime later in the
fall season if climo is any indication (our average lows for this
time of year = lower to mid 50s). After the cool start on Monday
morning, it`s all uphill from there as a strong warming trend will
commence and continue through the remainder of next week.

Advancing high pressure will shift east of the area by late Monday
and allow for a return to southerly flow. Looking aloft, weak NW
flow will maintain dry conditions through at least Tuesday before
a shortwave trough well to our north swings south from the central
Canadian provinces into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region.
This trough will help to propel a weak cold front south into our
region by Wednesday and should allow for some isolated convection
across our northern zones from mid to late week. However, this is
a fairly low confidence forecast with some question as to how far
south this front will manage to advance before stalling out and
lifting back northward by the end of the week. This appears to
coincide with a much stronger trough ejecting out of the Rockies
into the Great Plains on Friday into Saturday. Medium-range model
guidance continues to exhibit some timing discrepancies this far
out in time, but early signals indicate this could be a favorable
setup for severe weather. Given the extent of warm air advection
by late week, this potential will be monitored closely over the
coming week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, IFR setting in with -DZ/BR. Few shwrs
here and there next few hrs w/ increasing coverage and intensity
toward daybreak. Embedded TS too 15-21Z as an upper disturbance in
SW TX rides over the sfc front, now sinking toward I-10. A second
stronger disturbance arrives overnight Saturday with more convection
into early on Sun. Meanwhile, the NE winds extend up to 2kft with
super wet SW flow by 3kft and throughout your climb, due W for
FLs 30-50KT from FL200-FL350. FZL is 135 w/ mid level dry air.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  51  67  46 /  90 100  20   0
MLU  62  49  64  43 /  80 100  30   0
DEQ  58  43  66  40 /  80  80   0   0
TXK  58  48  66  43 /  90  90  10   0
ELD  58  46  65  40 /  80 100  20   0
TYR  61  49  65  45 / 100  90  10   0
GGG  61  49  65  44 / 100 100  10   0
LFK  72  51  66  45 /  70 100  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24