Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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654 FXUS64 KSHV 231513 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1013 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 No update is needed to the overnight forecast package at this time. /44/ && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Quiet morning for us in the wake of exiting high pressure of 1024mb edging into Georgia now. Return flow off the Gulf began yesterday afternoon and several sites have a little light S/SE wind present at this time. A little more wind can be found in E TX with some gusts likely there later today. Guidance is all close with a warm afternoon in the mid to upper 70s. Skies are mostly clear now and will stay this way for a while with some high clouds later on and some scattered fair wx cu with afternoon heating. Overnight air temps will start to see warmer readings with upper 50s and lower 60s as dew points continue upwards. Some morning low clouds and patchy fog can be expected for daybreak on Wednesday that will linger into the mid morning. The warmer start will edge highs into the lower 80s for many of our sites. A broad upper ridge over TX and the plains states will be slowly working our way with rising heights locking in the warmer trend through the rest of this week. A frontal boundary will drop down through the MS River valley and tail end Charlie some convection over E OK and W AR early on Wednesday for our northern tier of Counties early in the day. This activity should remain rather tame with a General Risk outlooked for us on the SPC day 2. This convection will sink a little farther southward with weak NW flow and a cool pool nudge down into E TX and N LA with peak heating. So slight and chance pops return, but amounts should be fairly light with limited moisture available until the next weekend push. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 This chance for rainfall will reestablish along I-30 as the boundary touches and goes in a short term period. We will keep a little unsettled across our northern tier for the remainder of the work week as the boundary washes out. Then the next upper trough will emerge off the front range with a lee surface low destined for the high plains. Once again the tail end of the convective push will sag much deeper into our area during Friday and Saturday. Diminishing intensity and coverage of convection as the parent low heads into the MidWestern and Great Lake States. Then late in the weekend, the secondary upper low in a broad long wave will usher the convective potential back into our area fully for Sunday and Monday. We will see more real estate in our area sporting a Slight Risk from SPC during this time. Once again seeing evidence of the lifting storm track typical in mid to late Spring. The WPC days 1-7 QPF have quite a gradient across our region from inches in SE OK to goose eggs in the Parishes. However, this is good to hang on to timely rainfall so as to avoid pushing the limits of our high temperature records. We may even have to return to the Drought Monitor for some of our Parishes, where coverage will initially suffer until the sea breeze becomes active along with daily pop up activity as the Westerlies continue to run out of gas for our area during late Spring. /24/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 656 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 For the 23/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected to continue with mostly SKC through the first third of the period. Expect a cu field to develop by late morning across our western airspace and gradually expand east throughout the afternoon and early evening. This will result in some low VFR cigs late in the period. In addition, some mid-level altocu may also spread into our airspace from the W/NW by late this afternoon followed by low stratus with MVFR after midnight across our western terminals. Near calm to light S/SE winds this morning will increase to between 10-15 kts with higher gusts starting around 23/15Z through 24/00Z before decreasing to less than 10 kts through the end of the period. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 79 63 82 65 / 0 0 20 10 MLU 76 57 81 61 / 0 0 20 10 DEQ 76 59 76 60 / 0 10 40 30 TXK 78 61 79 63 / 0 10 30 20 ELD 77 57 78 59 / 0 0 30 10 TYR 78 63 81 65 / 0 0 10 0 GGG 78 62 81 64 / 0 0 20 10 LFK 80 61 83 63 / 0 0 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...23