Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 271803
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
103 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The main concern in the short term forecast will be the potential
for strong (marginally severe) thunderstorms for areas generally
east of an Abilene to Junction line. As mentioned in previous
discussions, an upper level shortwave is making its way through
the area. And although there is limited moisture available, lift
and cold temperatures aloft are expected to result in isolated to
scattered thunderstorms for our eastern counties. Short range CAMs
continue to show the best coverage and most intense storms just
east of our area. Storms are expected to develop by 4 or 5 PM this
afternoon. Most of the activity, with the exception of a few
lingering showers, should be east of our forecast area by 8 PM.

A weak cold front will move through behind the trough this
evening turning winds to the north at 10 mph or less. Lows will
range from the upper 30s in our northwestern counties to the lower
40s for southern and eastern areas. For Thursday, dry weather is
expected with continued warming, as highs get into the mid and
upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

A pattern shift is expected to start on Thursday as a broad
upper- level ridge will take over the southern Plains. This should
allow for warm southerly flow to resume at the surface. Highs
should climb up to the upper 70s and low 80s on Thursday and
Friday as a warmer airmass is advected into west Texas. A
southwesterly low- level jet should develop late Thursday night
into Friday morning. As a result, winds on Friday could be 20-30
MPH with stronger gusts possible, especially at higher elevations.

Looking ahead to Saturday and Sunday, temperatures should push
into the upper 80s to near 90 with otherwise dry conditions as the
mid-level flow becomes quasi-zonal. Models show a deep trough
moving into the Desert Southwest on Monday and into Tuesday, which
could be the next best chance for rain and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Generally VFR conditions expected at all sites through Thursday
morning. There may be a few TSRA this afternoon and evening,
mainly near KBBD. Other than that, just some mid and upper level
clouds moving through associated with an upper level trough moving
through the area. West winds will have a few gusts to near 20
knots this afternoon, before diminishing to less than 10 knots out
of the north/northwest shortly after 00Z tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     41  74  55  79 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  38  78  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    40  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   41  73  52  77 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater  39  74  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       41  75  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       41  75  53  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...20


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