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000
FXUS64 KSJT 151116
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
616 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...Severe Thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and tonight...

The WV imagery is showing a strong trough over the southwest US,
with southwest flow over the Southern High Plains. At the surface, a
dryline extended form southwest Kansas south into western Texas. To
the east of the dryline southerly winds was transporting low level
moisture north across much of our area with dewpoints in the lower
to mid 60s.

The weather gets more active today with severe weather possible late
this afternoon and tonight. A strong upper level disturbance, with a
negative tilt/strong mid level jet streak, will rotate out to the
northeast across the Southern and Central Plains Monday afternoon
through Tuesday. At the surface, will see a spring like pattern
across the Southern Plains with southerly flow(wind gusts 35 to 40
mph possible Monday evening) across our area to the east of a
dryline over west Texas. The combination of moderate instability,
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s and the dryline moving
east will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing
during the late afternoon and evening, as a Pacific cold front
overtakes the dryline and upper level dynamics increase. Most of the
Hi-res models are mainly targeting the Big Country, possibly the
northern Concho Valley with the best coverage of convection. A few
storms may be severe mainly north of a Mertzon to San Angelo to
Brownwood line as strong vertical wind shear will be in the area. A
few supercells possible during initial development and convection
developing into a few cluster of storms during the mid evening and
overnight. The main hazards will be very large hail, damaging winds
and isolated tornadoes. Another very warm day with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Main upper level low moves northeast across the central US and
effectively dry slots West Central Texas. Dry westerly surface
winds will boost temperatures up into the 80s in most areas, and
even the 90s across the Hill Country which is particularly
susceptible to the west winds and downsloping. Model blends are
showing the hottest day to be Thursday with 850 MB temperatures
soaring above 25C across the western Concho valley and Big
Country, helping push temperatures well above the 90 degree mark.

Stronger cold front arrives on Saturday, setting the stage for a
more widespread rainfall event as low level moisture rises up and
over the frontal boundary. Models have their differences this far
out with just where the front may stall and where the overrunning
precip will set up, but model blends have boosted POPs up some for
the weekend and will go with that for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Expect stratus across the southern terminals this morning. A few
hours of MVFR are possible at KSJT terminal. Expect VFR conditions
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening across
much of the area. A few storms may be severe. Have a mention of
thunder for a few hours at the KABI/KSJT terminals. Also, expect
south winds with gusts to 25 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     89  58  88  58 /  30  40   0   0
San Angelo  92  59  89  58 /  10  40   0   0
Junction    91  67  93  62 /  10  30   0   0
Brownwood   86  64  87  57 /  20  40   0   0
Sweetwater  88  57  87  57 /  30  40   0   0
Ozona       88  58  87  60 /  10  20   0   0
Brady       87  67  88  63 /  10  40   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21