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000
FXUS62 KTAE 210749
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
349 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A cold front will finally make its way through the region today
and with it will come another shot at showers and perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder. Severe weather is not expected though storms
may be able to produce some gusty winds and perhaps small hail if
we`re able to destabilize a bit. Rain chances will increase
throughout the day, with drier air moving in by the late afternoon
and evening hours from west to east. Skies should gradually clear
behind the front and cooler air filters in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The cold front will have completed its passage by the start of
the Short Term and we can expect cooler and drier conditions
through the day. Surface high pressure will be settling over the
region as upper level ridging will be building through the day.
High temperatures on Monday will be slightly cooler than NBM
guidance in the upper 60s to low-mid 70s as cooler air will still
be filtering in from the north. We drop into the upper 40s Monday
night into Tuesday morning, and will be in the low 50s along the
immediate coast. We will quickly warm back into the upper 70s and
low 80s for Tuesday and heading into the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The surface high will keep us dry for several days. A weak cold
front will pass through the region on Wednesday, but will have
little to no effect on expected conditions. Temperatures will be
warming back into the mid 80s and upper 80s heading into the
weekend while overnight lows will be relatively steady in the
upper 50s to low 60s. No appreciable rain chances are expected for
the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Rain and any associated thunderstorms have generally pushed to
our north this morning, the exception being the southern end of
the system clipping our northern most GA counties. Conditions vary
between VFR and MVFR for cigs at the moment, which can be seen
via the night fog satellite product. Expect conditions hold like
that for a couple of hours, before cigs start to drop to MVFR and
IFR. There are a few models that try to hint at fog development as
we approach close to sunrise; however, confidence was not high
enough to keep the 1SM in the forecast thus it was bumped up a few
miles. Any fog that does develop should be relatively short
lived. A front will then make its way through the region bringing
showers and perhaps some vicinity thunderstorms to the TAF sites.
Guidance shows cigs generally around MVFR or IFR conditions for
much of the day until the front clears. Trended towards most TAF
sites improving to VFR conditions around 0Z, though confidence is
medium in this occuring.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible later today for the
afternoon and evening hours as a cold front makes its way through
our marine zones. Elevated winds and seas are expected as the
showers/storms move through. Following the cold front, cautionary
conditions are likely for all our marine zones with advisory level
conditions possible for our waters west of Apalachicola on
Monday. Winds and seas will return to be favorable by mid week
with seas of 1-2 feet and varying winds of 5-10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A frontal system will work through the region today and will
bring scattered rain showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder
with it. Behind it, dry weather returns for the forecast period.
Elevated to high dispersions are possible today for the I-75
corridor from about Cook and Berrien counties down into the
eastern FL Big Bend counties. Area wide high dispersions are
forecast for Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Rain chances continue through this evening. The quick nature of
the system will keep rainfall accumulations light between
0.25-0.75 inches. It is possible that there may be isolated higher
amounts if there are training showers.


Regarding river conditions; the Apalachicola, St Marks,
Withlacoochee, Aucilla, and Ochlockonee rivers remaining in flood,
the Suwanee has now risen into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville,
and Branford. Expect possible rises to continue down the Suwannee
with additional points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   80  54  73  50 /  60  10   0   0
Panama City   76  53  73  53 /  60  10   0   0
Dothan        69  47  70  48 /  60   0   0   0
Albany        70  50  69  47 /  70  10   0   0
Valdosta      81  55  71  49 /  70  20   0   0
Cross City    82  56  75  49 /  40  40  10   0
Apalachicola  78  56  74  59 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday
     for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery