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000
FXUS62 KTBW 141751
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
151 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Surface high pressure will continue to drift away from the Florida
peninsula through this evening and move into the Atlantic waters as
its associated ridge axis becomes established across central Florida
tonight into Monday. The Atlantic ridge axis then shifts northward
into mid week as mid level ridging in the Gulf of Mexico builds
across the region with the low level flow becoming increasingly
southeasterly. This synoptic pattern will favor an extended period
of above average temperatures and stable conditions with large scale
subsidence preventing any mention of rain chances throughout at
least the middle of the week.

By late week, ridging aloft will start to break down as an upper
level trough swings across the Great Lakes and the flow aloft
transitions to more of a zonal orientation. As this occurs, there
will be some modest moisture recovery with dewpoints returning to
about the mid 60s and there also appears to be some southern
stream shortwave energy embedded in the flow aloft, which appears
to at least trigger a few sprinkles of QPF in some recent
guidance. However, there is not enough confidence to add any PoPs
to the forecast at this time as deep moisture remains rather
lacking. Somewhat "better" rain chances then appear to arrive at
the end of the extended forecast period with models showing a cold
front approaching from the north by the end of next weekend,
though for now a consensus blend of PoPs only introduces about
about a 10% probability or less in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period with winds
onshore through this evening with the sea breeze but winds become
variable overnight and weaken to 5 kts or less. Winds then start
east-southeast Monday morning but shift to onshore at coastal
sites by Monday afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland with
winds around 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions across the
coastal waters for this upcoming week. Winds will primarily be out
of the east-southeast in the morning hours at the start of each
day and switch onshore as the afternoon sea breeze develops.
Overall, an extended period of favorable marine conditions will
be in place with seas 2 feet or less and winds remaining below 15
kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

An exceptionally dry airmass remains in place with widespread
critically low relative humidity values that are expected to
continue into the new week. While a slow and gradual trend in
moisture recovery will occur by mid week, minimum relative
humidity values will still likely be below 40 percent all week
long, particularly in interior areas. However, wind speeds will
generally remain light enough to preclude any red flag concerns,
though with an extended period of dry weather, fire weather concerns
may increase as fuels become increasingly drier.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  63  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  61  87  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  60  87  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  60  86  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  54  87  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  66  83  67  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle