653
FXUS62 KTBW 272345
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
745 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 734 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Dry warm but rather typical late April pattern continues. High
pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region through
Monday with large scale subsidence creating generally partly
cloudy skies and temperatures several degrees above normal each
day. High broken cloudiness over the area this evening and
overnight will move east of the state on Sunday. Gradient remains
rather tight, and although winds will decrease to around 10 MPH by
midnight, gusty east winds will redevelop on Sunday.

A weak progressive U/L trough will push across the forecast area
on Tuesday with a slight chance of a shower, mainly over the
interior. High pressure surface and aloft will build back over the
area on Wednesday and will persist through the end of the week,
with highs around 90 away from the coast each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Persistent springtime upper ridging continues to stretch from the
N Carib, over the FL Peninsula and up into the Eastern Seaboard
with subsidence aloft to keep the warm and mainly dry conditions
in place through the weekend. At lower levels breezy easterly
flow continues around the strong high pressure center in the W
Atlantic as a result of the tight pressure gradient. Have seen
some light low topped sprinkles on radar in this flow as well but
don`t expect much in the way of measurable rain and will keep
blind 10 PoPs mainly interior areas.

The upper ridge will finally get suppressed early-mid-week as a
shortwave moves through the Deep South. Surface high pressure in
the W Atlantic weakens but will continue to dominate at the low
levels keeping the area warm and dry while the sea breeze returns
at least to coastal areas. Some models hinting at isolated
interior seabreeze showers Tuesday afternoon but will hold less
than 20 PoPs for now in those areas.

By late week, ridging becomes reestablished aloft to keep the
warm/dry sensible wx conditions in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with SCT-BKN250
tonight, becoming SCT040-050 SCT250 at all terminals on Sunday.
Breezy east winds will continue.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure with a tight pressure gradient continues over the E
Gulf waters with winds around 20 kts and seas 4-7 ft to produce
hazardous SCA conditions through the evening surge and tonight.
Brief decrease in E winds Sun morning before another afternoon/evening
increase with periods of SCEC/SCA likely into early next week.
High pressure remains in the region as winds slightly decrease into
mid week with the afternoon sea breeze returning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry springtime high pressure remains in the region with
daily minimum RH values at or just below critical levels each
afternoon. Easterly winds become occasionally gusty each afternoon
into evening with high dispersions in some areas. Even though
fuels remain just moist enough to preclude red flag warnings, an
elevated fire weather risk remains with these conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  87  67  87 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  68  87  66  88 /   0  10   0   0
GIF  66  85  64  87 /   0  10   0   0
SRQ  68  90  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  61  87  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  71  86  70  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis