Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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122 FXUS62 KTBW 010738 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 338 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 .DISCUSSION... Troughing remains in place aloft east of the region early this morning and will slowly be replaced by weak ridging through the rest of the week before some shortwave energy moves by to our north this weekend. Ridging then takes hold again early next week. At the surface, high pressure over the Atlantic will generally remain in control, with an east to southeast flow giving way to the west coast sea breeze each day. We will see rain chances each day, though some days with higher chances than others. For today, expect a pretty similar setup as yesterday, with some showers and a thunderstorm or two over the interior late in the day. East flow will increase a bit for Thursday and a bit more for Friday, leading to isolated shower activity shifting closer to the west coast. We might see a slight uptick in the number of showers for the weekend, then we go right back to about a 20 PoP or lower through early next week. Overall, not much to speak of with fairly typical early May weather. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Similar to yesterday, a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two will likely form over the interior and southwest Florida regions and could near some of the TAF sites, but coverage is not expected to be high. && .MARINE... East to southeast winds will remain over the waters through the next several days, giving way to the sea breeze each afternoon. No headlines are expected through the next week or so. && .FIRE WEATHER... Relative humidity values will drop near critical levels over inland areas for the next several afternoons, but no Red Flag conditions are expected. Some patchy fog will be possible for the next couple of nights. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 71 90 72 / 10 0 20 0 FMY 89 70 90 70 / 20 10 20 10 GIF 90 68 91 68 / 20 10 20 0 SRQ 88 69 89 70 / 10 0 10 0 BKV 90 63 92 65 / 10 0 20 0 SPG 86 73 88 74 / 10 0 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ 05/Carlisle