Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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638 FXUS63 KTOP 290813 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 313 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... _ Patchy fog early early this morning in low lying areas. - Potential for some severe thunderstorms from Tuesday through Thursday as well as locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Early this morning a mid level trough was over the northern Plains into the southern Rockies. The surface front had moved off to the southeast of the area into Missouri and Oklahoma and high pressure was over western Kansas early this morning. The light to calm winds int he river valleys early this morning may lead to some fog formation and have kept in the forecast. Otherwise mostly sunny skies are expected with high temperatures warming into the 70s with warmest readings in the upper 70s in central Kansas. By late afternoon an inverted surface trough sets up across central into northeast Kansas. CAMS have developed some isolated showers from late afternoon into early this evening near the surface trough with the RAP showing inverted V type soundings. With dry air in the lower levels not expecting much in the way of precipitation from any of the showers or isolated storms, but gusty winds will accompany any of the showers. Focus then turns to Tuesdays severe weather potential as a mid level trough moves into the northern Plains and taking on a negative tilt as it moves eastward. An associated front will move southeast into north central Kansas Tuesday afternoon, with convection developing along the front and moving southeast across the northeast Kansas during the evening hours. Models show ample moisture return ahead of the front with dewpoint temps in the 50s to lower 60s. There will also be good moisture transport to support some locally heavy rainfall as well. Given forecast shear and instability support mainly damaging winds and large hail, given low level shear on forecast hodographs tornadoes will also be possible, especially near the Nebraska border. The front moves southward into southern Kansas Tuesday night then returns northward on Wednesday as a warm front. A surface low is forecast over southeast Colorado on Wednesday with the warm front in northern Kansas or southern Nebraska in the afternoon. A dryline sets up across southwest Kansas in the afternoon. Scattered storms are expected to develop in the warm sector as well as near the warm front. Forecast soundings and hodographs support all modes of severe weather. In addition moisture transport will increase across central and eastern Kansas will be supportive of efficient rainfall producing storms which may lead to additional flooding across the area. Drier air moves in behind the system for Friday bringing a reprieve from the wet weather. Variance amongst the models continues through the weekend, thus keeping probabilities of precipitation low. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. There may be some shallow ground fog at TOP and MHK in the 10Z-13Z time period. Winds light west to southwest under 10kts through the period. Winds may back to the south southeast after 00Z at TOP and FOE. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...53 AVIATION...53