Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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453 FXUS64 KTSA 050521 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1221 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The earlier thunderstorms that produced a few reports of hail up to dime size in northwest AR this evening have moved out of the forecast area, leaving us with a temporary lull. Regional radar trends show showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across southwest and south central OK, and with the approach of an upper level system later tonight this will expand further into parts of eastern OK, primarily after Midnight, and become rather widespread by morning. Sent an update earlier to remove POPs through 03z, with the rest of the forecast unchanged. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across the area Sunday morning, shifting to the north and east with time along with the movement of the upper level support. Some redevelopment potential may exist during the late afternoon hours, depending on how much instability can develop behind the earlier batch of storms. Flash flooding will be the main concern, however, given the widespread rains that could be locally heavy and the antecedent conditions. Attention then turns to the potential for significant severe weather late Monday and into Monday night. Some data are indicating potential for showers and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas early in the day in response to increasing mid level moisture. However, do not think it will be substantial enough to warrant the high POPs offered by the NBM during the day and as a result, have cut back on those. Thunderstorms are expected to develop as early as late afternoon but more likely early to mid evening along and ahead of an approaching cold front/dryline. Areas north of I-40 continue to look most likely to see thunderstorms given the main upper system is located well north of the area. Even in areas further south, however, the environment supports a high end severe threat with any storm that develops. This threat looks to continue into the overnight, waning toward Tuesday morning. Additional mainly afternoon and evening storms remain expected through mid week until the main upper level system finally shifts east. These storms will also pose a severe weather threat, although specifics may depend on how things evolve earlier in the week. Expect cool and dry weather to move in late in the week and into the weekend, likely a very welcome break for all. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Widespread showers and storms will spread across eastern OK / northwest AR tonight through mid afternoon Sunday. The combination of periodic thunderstorms and MVFR to IFR ceilings will impact flight conditions area wide. Expecting low ceilings to persist in wake of departing precip with continued flight level impacts through Sunday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 61 82 68 87 / 20 30 70 10 FSM 63 83 70 87 / 30 30 50 20 MLC 64 82 70 86 / 20 30 40 10 BVO 58 81 62 85 / 20 30 70 10 FYV 62 82 66 84 / 40 30 60 30 BYV 60 80 66 83 / 50 30 60 30 MKO 61 80 68 85 / 20 30 60 20 MIO 60 80 64 83 / 30 30 80 30 F10 61 80 68 85 / 20 30 50 10 HHW 64 79 69 85 / 20 30 30 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020- 029. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...07