Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 261934
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
134 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
131 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

- Warmer and dry Wednesday and Thursday

- Chances for precipitation increase Thursday night into Friday, and
cooler air moves back in

- Chilly with chances for rain/snow Easter weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A broad trough covers the CONUS, with its low pushing
into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, cold high pressure is
sinking into the northern plains. Winds are northwesterly 5 to 15
mph, and a bit stronger across central SD. Under mostly sunny
skies, temperatures this afternoon range from the teens across
central SD to the 30s over northeastern WY.

Upper ridging builds over the western states Wednesday, shifting
over the central US Thursday. Thus, weather midweek will be dry and
increasingly warm. However, lingering moisture could contribute some
upslope snow showers over the northern Black Hills Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures Wednesday, especially across the western SD
plains, will depend on the pace at which the warm air advects.
Ensemble temperature spreads increase out towards central SD, which
will be along the line between cold and warm air. Therefore, highs
Wednesday could range from near 30 across central SD to near 50
across northeastern WY. Warmer temps will be more widespread
Thursday, with highs expected to be in the 50s and 60s (although
north central SD may stay in the 40s).

Southwest flow sets up late Thursday into Friday, as another
upper low moves ashore over CA. Weak shortwave energy ahead of the
low, along with a cold front, could help produce some light
rain/snow showers Thursday night into Friday. The intrusion of
cold air beneath the warmer air aloft could also lead to some
freezing rain across north central SD, which is supported by the
NAM forecast sounding and LREF.

Colder temperatures and increased chances for snow are expected for
Easter weekend as the upper low approaches and possibly links up
with a Canadian low. There is still plenty of uncertainty with the
track of this system and how much precip will be rain vs. snow, but
will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1128 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Dye


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