Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 230644

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
244 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Early this morning, nrn Michigan is on the backside of upper
troughing over the eastern conus. Sfc high pressure centered over
north central Canada extends southward through the western Great
Lakes and into the nrn Gulf of Mexico. The air mass remains on the
dry side with PWATS around 0.25", but there was an easily
identifiable shortwave/closed low aloft seen on satellite imagery,
swirling and dropping SE down the backside of the upper troughing
into nrn Lake Huron. This wave was resulting in some higher level
cloud cover from Whitefish Bay into NE lower Michigan. There was
also a sfc trough/cold front draped from srn Quebec through the nrn
Great Lakes and into Ontario. Very quiet weather for us.

Hardly any change in the weather for today and tonight. The
aforementioned wave/closed low presses through the eastern Great
Lakes this morning, and will be followed by another weaker wave for
tonight. The air mass will remain moisture-starved, actually
becoming slightly drier today. There is just no moisture coming in
with these waves that are originating in nrn Canada. Skies will
continue to be rather clear. The only thing to look for will be the
small possibility of some lake cloud generation in northerly flow
regimes. This may occur as the sfc troughing/cold front sags into
nrn Michigan toward daybreak and into this morning, behind the
departing circulation/wave aloft. 925mb temperatures drop to around
-10C, more than sufficient for shallow overlake instability. A
similar set up will be in place for late tonight into Saturday
morning. The dry air may overpower any moisture flux however.

Not much change in temperatures either. Highs today in the low 30s
north to the upper 30s south. Lows tonight generally around 10F in
eastern upper to the teens most areas in nrn lower.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Primary Forecast Concern...Minimal.

Strong surface high pressure continuing to ridge in from the north
will yield more quiet weather this weekend. Temperatures will remain
a few degrees below normal Saturday and have lowered temps Saturday
night. As the high finally slides off to our east Sunday
temperatures will moderate and likely end up closer to normal.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...Milder Temperatures Next Week...

Primary Forecast Concern...Minimal.

High pressure will depart to the east. This will allow for low
pressure and an associated weak cold front to move across the region
Tuesday into Wednesday. Will will then have to see if another area
of low pressure affects the region Thursday. Rain chances will
increase late Monday night with rain expected on Tuesday into the
first half of Tuesday night. Rain chances will then linger into
Wednesday. Temperatures will be above normal through this entire
period. The next shot of colder air is likely to arrive at some
point during the Easter weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A disturbance aloft with some higher level cloud will exit the
region this morning. An associated moisture-starved sfc trough/cold
front will lay out over nrn Michigan this morning. There is a small
chance for some MVFR lake cloud around APN due to shallow overlake
instability. There will be a similar set up for late Friday night
into Saturday morning. Odds are that the air mass will be too dry
for this lake induced cloud. Northerly winds generally at or below
10kts through the period.


Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Winds are generally expected to remain below advisory criteria
through Saturday morning, before chances increase a bit for low end
advisory speeds later Saturday afternoon through Sunday. The
pressure gradient tightens more significantly Sunday night into
Monday, and there is a pretty good chance headlines will be needed.
This all occurs out ahead of a low pressure system that will likely
bring rain Monday night through Tuesday night, with maybe some snow
mixing in at night.




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