Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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489
FXUS61 KBTV 211342
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
942 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather returns to the North Country as high pressure
builds in. Temperatures remain below normal over the weekend
but a warming trend will lead to near to slightly above normal
temperatures mid week. Expect plentiful sunshine through the
middle of the workweek before rain returns to the region
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 942 AM EDT Saturday...Going forecast remains in overall
good shape. With wall to wall late April sunshine in most areas
temperatures are climbing quickly, especially in snow-free areas
and are already nearing prior forecast highs in a few spots.
This required a slight upward adjustment to maximum values by
2-3 degrees while maintaining overall spatial variability shown
in the prior forecast. I also lowered surface dewpoints slightly
based off current observational trends and the expectation that
near-surface lapse rates will trend superadiabatic in the lower
few hundred meters by this afternoon. Blended MET and LAMP MOS
output served as a good proxy for these small changes. Have a
great day.

Prior discussion...
Latest WV/IR satellite still shows a pocket of cloud cover
holding on over the North Country. That has kept temps from
dropping that quickly this evening and so lows will only fall
into the upper 20s to low 30s for most the area. By daybreak the
clouds should begin to deteriorate as high pressure and dry air
builds in. Expect mostly clear skies for the region with some
partly clouds skies holding on over the Northeast Kingdom. The
warm air wont quite reach the area today so I anticipate another
below normal day with highs in the mid to upper 40s.

High pressure will continue to build into the region and winds
this evening will decouple allowing for radiational cooling to
take place under mostly clear skies. Expect chilly conditions
in the typical colder locations of the Northeast Kingdom and
parts of the Adirondacks.

Sunday looks to be a wonderful day as high pressure dominates
and we should reach upper 40s to low 50s across the North
Country under full sun. Light northwesterly winds will prevail
winds with relative humidities dropping into the 30% range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...Deep-layer ridge building ewd from
the Great Lakes region will bring long-awaited pleasant spring
conditions Sunday night thru Tuesday. Dry air mass and mostly
clear skies will result in large diurnal ranges. Looking for
lows in the 20s to lower 30s Sunday night...warming to the upr
50s to lower 60s Monday afternoon. Should see light S-SW winds
developing by Monday afternoon. Will see lows mainly in the 30s
Monday night. Temperatures warm into the low-mid 60s for
Tuesday, with continued air mass modification and S-SW return
flow of 5-10 mph as high pressure departs east and southeast of
New England. This will be the first 60+ degree temps at the
Burlington International Airport (BTV) since 2/21 (69F). PoPs
NIL thru the short-term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...Will begin to see increasing clouds
Tuesday night from SW-NE associated with a potential phasing of
southern and northern stream shortwave troughs across the Upper
Ohio Valley. The 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF - unsurprisingly for a
potential phasing scenario - differ significantly on potential
details and timing of precipitation Wed- Friday. The 00Z GFS
suggests light precipitation on Wednesday, and again Friday. The
00Z ECMWF suggest a more phased soln with a consolidated
coastal low Wednesday into Thursday, with drier weather for
Friday. Overall predictability of the pattern is considered
lower than normal. At this point, have indicated low likely PoPs
(50- 60%) for Wed/Wed night, followed by chance PoPs (30-40%)
Thu-Fri for periods of rain showers. Not expecting any heavy
precipitation at this time. Abundant clouds and potential
precipitation should bring slightly cooler temperatures, with
highs mainly in the mid-upr 50s for Wednesday, Thursday, and
Friday, and lows in the upr 30s-mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period. Ceilings through 12z should be in the 5-8kft range and
then clouds will become scattered after 12z and we should see
mostly clear skies below 20kft through the remainder of the
period. Winds will become light and variable by 06z
tonight...then increase from the northwest after 14z but at
speeds of 10 knots or less and then become light and variable
again overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...JMG/Deal
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Deal



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