Area Forecast Discussion
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610
FXUS64 KEPZ 240916
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
316 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
West to southwest winds will bring very warm mostly dry weather
across southern and west Texas through early next week. An upper
level disturbance may produce breezy to windy conditions on
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Outflow boundaries from convection over eastern New Mexico and
west Texas have pushed into the CWA early this morning. Associated
east to southeast surface winds have spread to the Rio Grande
with shallow low level moisture covering the region. By the mid
afternoon heating and adiabatic lapse rates to near 500 mb will
allow deeper southwest winds aloft to mix down to the surface with
dry air advection pushing associated dry line back to the east.
By late this afternoon though expect surface dewpoints will be
around 40 F in eastern portions of Otero and Hudspeth Counties
which when combined with warm surface temperatures will make air
mass weakly unstable. Thus expect a few thunderstorms across this
area late this afternoon and tonight. Elsewhere air mass will
remain much drier and thus stable.

Tonight and Friday yet another unseasonably deep upper low will
drift slowly east into central California with warm air advection
aloft supporting ridging and associated height rises through the
central and southern Rockies. Subsidence, westerly winds and
abundant sunshine will bring very warm dry conditions all
locations on Friday as dry line moves east of the CWA.

Saturday and Sunday upper low continues slow eastward movement
across Nevada into Utah. This scenario will cause winds aloft to
strengthen across the CWA with downslope winds causing lee surface
troughing through eastern New Mexico. This pattern should sustain
west to southwest winds with continued inflow of very warm dry
air mass. In addition mixing heights to around 500 mb plus
stronger gradients may induce breezy to marginally windy
conditions on Saturday.

Another trough approaches the west coast early next week with high
pressure aloft developing over central Mexico. Westerly flow
should therefore continue with more dry weather and warm above
normal temperatures later periods.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 24/12z-25/12z.
Very isolated areas of MVFR or IFR conditions in showers and
thunderstorms eastern Otero and eastern Hudspeth counties mainly
from 20z-03z. Otherwise widespread VFR conditions with skies CLR-
SCT070. Winds mostly 5-15 kts except for stronger gusts near
storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There will be slight chances for showers and thunderstorms over
eastern portions of Otero and Hudspeth counties this afternoon and
this evening with dry lightning possible. Other west to southwest
winds will bring very warm mostly dry weather with above normal
temperatures and low humidity across southern and west Texas
through early next week. An upper level disturbance may produce
breezy to windy conditions on Saturday resulting in Red Flag
conditions over some locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 95  66  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           92  64  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              94  58  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              92  60  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              72  48  74  52 /  20  20   0   0
Truth or Consequences   93  59  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             87  52  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  94  54  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               92  54  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      94  65  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               93  61  97  64 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Hancock            96  66  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              91  63  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  95  63  98  65 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            94  62  95  65 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          93  63  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           94  56  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   95  56  96  60 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                95  57  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               94  64  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 79  53  84  56 /  30  20   0   0
Mescalero               80  52  84  55 /  20  20   0   0
Timberon                79  51  83  54 /  20  20   0   0
Winston                 88  49  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               90  55  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               92  56  94  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            86  47  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  87  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   91  46  91  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              89  49  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 89  53  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  94  54  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 94  54  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          93  54  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              89  53  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



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