Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 261127
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
727 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks north through western Maine today with
another round of showers possible this afternoon. This system
will slowly exit the region late Thursday allowing clearing
Thursday night into early Friday. Another area of low pressure
will move into the region late Fri and Friday night. Some
instability showers are possibly mainly in the afternoon and
evening Saturday. A cold front with cooler drier air arrives on
Sunday. A warming trend is expected to begin early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
730AM UPDATE...
Last batch of steady rain moving through southwest Maine and
coastal New Hampshire now. Will leave the Flood Watch up for
western Maine despite updated forecasts now calling for river
crests to stay below flood stage. Since more rain is moving in,
there is a chance we see another spike on the rivers which are
already close to flood. Have updated the forecast to adjust
precipitation chances this morning, again trying to show this
last batch of rain moving in with convective showers likely this
afternoon.

530AM UPDATE...
Another batch of steadier rain is moving in from Cape Cod,
likely affecting far eastern New Hampshire and most of western
Maine for the next few hours. Have updated the forecast to try
to show this in the hourly precipitation chances a bit better.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
Area of steady rain has moved east into central and eastern
Maine, while behind it only a few isolated showers exist. Expect
the steady rain to continue to slowly push east this morning,
while fog develops in the wake of it. Fog should dissipate after
sunrise, hanging on longest across interior western Maine.

Surface low pressure lifts north through the area today while
upper level low pressure tracks east out of the Great Lakes and
into northern New England. As the upper low arrives, expect
areas of showers to develop. With cold air moving in aloft and
warm/moist air at ground level, cannot rule out a thunderstorm
this afternoon. Given cold temperatures aloft, small hail is
possible with any heftier showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
Upper low moves east tonight with some clearing expected.
Temperatures fall back into the low 40s with some upper 30s
possible, buoyed in part by remnant low level moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...

*Continued shower activity through the weekend will contribute
 to rises on area rivers and streams
*Significant warm up expected early next week

Low pressure associated with a northern stream short wave will
be ejecting northeast late Thursday night into the wee hours
Friday morning. Subsidence behind this system will allow for
some clearing skies early Friday before additional moisture
arrives ahead of the next weather maker. This system will be
ushered in on a southern stream wave along the mid Atlantic
coast line, similar to out current storm system.

Widespread showers are forecast for our entire area over the
weekend. Coastal low pressure will likely stay just offshore
until crossing the Gulf of Maine and into Maine Saturday
morning. Sprawling high pressure over the Plains and western
Great Lakes region will interfere with farther movement
inland. An additional mesolow deepens over the eastern Great
Lakes and will follow suit, bringing with it a trailing cold
front. QPF amounts will be in the 1-2" range for the Friday to
Sunday time frame, delivering another good soaking rain and
adding to already high running creeks and streams. We may see
some snow mix in over the mountains Sunday night as cooler air
arrives behind the multiple FROPAs, but accumulations will be
light.

During this time temperatures will be below normal for highs
due to clouds and precipitation. Overnight lows will be chilly,
especially Monday morning, which will see some freezing
temperatures over western NH and northern ME. Ironically, our
frost/freeze program for crops does not start until May 1, so
take care to cover any sensitive plants.

Monday through mid week we will see some very warm readings with
highs in the 70s areawide with perhaps an 80 degree location or
two.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Steadier rain moves into central and eastern Maine
this morning, while some fog develops behind it. This fog should
lift a few hours after sunrise with VFR conditions developing
from southwest to northeast. But just as the sun begins to come
out, clouds will fill back in and showers form this afternoon.
Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm either.

Long Term...VFR early Friday with conditions lowering to
MVFR/IFR late Friday into Saturday in rain showers. VFR
conditions return for all terminals except perhaps KHIE Sunday.
Gusty NW winds will develop in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds gradually diminishing this morning, shifting
to the west by afternoon. Seas remain high through the day and
possibly into Friday.

Long Term...Seas over the outer waters will remain AOA 5 feet
Friday into Saturday so SCAs for seas will likely be needed.
On Sunday winds become westerly and should remain generally
below SCA conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Steadier rain has ended and rises on area rivers have been
noted. With the more persistent rain having exited New Hampshire
and most rivers there already cresting below flood stage, have
decided to drop the Flood Watch for northern New Hampshire.
Rivers in northwest Maine are rising or nearing their crest, so
will keep the Flood Watch up for these areas.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-021.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ151-
     153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Kimble
LONG TERM...Hanes



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