Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 211026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
626 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Snow will continue through this morning before beginning to
taper off this afternoon. High pressure and a drier airmass
will build into the region Thursday and Friday. An approaching
low pressure system will bring a mix of rain and snow to the
region for the weekend.


The mid level low appears to be centered just east of CVG early
this morning. Widespread snow is continuing to rotate around it
with the steadier/heavier bands pivoting down across mainly
western portions of our area. It looks like some of the pcpn
across our southeast may still be mixing with rain at times,
but would expect this to change over to all snow over the next
few hours.

So far the snow has had a little bit of a tough time accumulating
on the warmer ground and there does appear to be some melting
still occurring. As a result, most reports across western
portions of our area have generally been in the 1.5 to 2 inch
range so far. Would expect to see the more steady precipitation
persist through mid morning or so before beginning to taper off
from the west as the low shifts off to the east. The 00Z models
were in good agreement showing the axis of best accumulations
in our area extending from the Miami/Whitewater Valleys down
into southeast Indiana and far southwest Ohio into some of
our western Kentucky counties. Total accumulations will remain
difficult due the warm ground. However, we have been slowly
cooling both the air temperature and ground temperature so think
between now and daybreak we could still see another couple of
inches of accumulation possible across our north and west. Once
the sun comes up, additional accumulations will become less
efficient from mid morning onward. Will go ahead and stick with
headlines as they currently stand and try to make some tweaks to
total accumulations based on what has already fallen.


Clouds will begin to clear from the west later tonight with
mostly sunny skies expected on Thursday as high pressure and a
drier airmass begins to build in to the area. Lows tonight will
be in the low to mid 20s with highs on Thursday ranging from
the upper 30s to around 40 in the northeast to the low to mid
40s across the south.


Northwest flow will continue Thursday night into Friday with another
upper level disturbance diving southeast towards New York. This will
push another cold front through the area Friday morning. This type
of weather pattern setup will allow for chilly conditions with highs
in the 40s, but plenty of sun as the Ohio Valley remains in strong
upper level subsidence or ageostrophic convergence.

On Saturday a potent upper level low off the Pacific Northwest coast
will bring another wave across the region. The wave will be embedded
in a general upper level ridge which will help push the wave
southeast of the Ohio Valley (along with a long wave trough axis
over the Northeast). Overall, global models have been rather
unstable with the strength and path of this wave which is
unsurprising given its origin. The idea is that a surface low
pressure will form Saturday in Missouri and head towards south/
central Kentucky Sunday morning. During the day Saturday the warm
air advection wing/ widespread isentropic upglide will commence
across the region. The latest GFS and ECMWF would support all snow
for Ohio with northern Kentucky switching between snow and rain.
Given the uncertainty though in the eventual track of the shortwave
have just broad brushed snowfall totals.

Sunday the wave will move east of the area allowing for clearing
skies with highs in the upper 40s. On Monday the upper level low
that was off the west coast of the United States will push east with
mid level riding working in over the Ohio Valley. This means
temperatures will be on the rise with the next batch of
precipitation moving into the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence
here remains low though as the eventual track of the upper level low
is uncertain. The GFS and CMC has the front moving through on
Wednesday were as the ECMWF has the front washing south across the
area on Thursday evening.


Low pressure will continue to push east of the region through
this afternoon. This will allow for snow across the area this
morning to begin to taper off from west to east as we head into
this afternoon. Until then, we will see IFR cigs and vsbys
prevail through the first few hours of the TAF period. We should
then see a gradual improvement into MVFR this afternoon. High
pressure will begin to build in from the west tonight into
Thursday with VFR conditions expected through the second half of
the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Saturday
and Saturday night.


OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ070-
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ066-


LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...JGL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.