Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 191025
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
525 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure
builds over the area. The winds will become gusty later this
morning, with gusts around 20kts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: Cooler than normal and dry. A dry cold front
across the central portions of our CWA early this morning will push
southeast of our area shortly after sunrise. In it`s wake a gusty
north wind will usher in cooler and drier air. In addition, a large
>1034mb surface high will drop out of the northern Plains today to
the western Great lakes region tonight maintaining the surge of cold
air into our CWA into Friday morning. Our normal afternoon highs run
in the mid to upper 70s. Under near full insolation today,
temperatures will be more than ten degrees cooler than normal.
Skies will remain clear tonight and under a light northeast wind,
temperatures will drop into the lower 40s at most locations. A few
spots may briefly dip into the upper 30s but frost formation is not
anticipated. Normal morning lows run in the low to mid 50s. /22/
Friday through Wednesday night...Upper and surface ridging will
continue to prevail across the area on Friday and Friday night.
Highs will be a little warmer on Friday, topping out in the upper
60s/low 70s. These conditions will continue into Saturday, but the
global models are in pretty good agreement that the upper ridge will
give way to a cut-off low, that will approach the area Saturday
afternoon into the evening hours.

Friday through Wednesday night...Upper and surface ridging will
continue to prevail across the area on Friday and Friday night.
Highs will be a little warmer on Friday, topping out in the upper
60s/low 70s. These conditions will continue into Saturday, but the
global models are in pretty good agreement that the upper ridge will
give way to a cut-off low, that will approach the area Saturday
afternoon into the evening hours.

The models continue to be in good agreement of tracking this system
across north Mississippi Saturday night/Sunday. Showers and
thunderstorms will move into the western portions of the area late
on Saturday and continue to progress eastward Saturday night into
Sunday afternoon. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms continue
to look possible, with the GFS indicating 7.0-7.5 C/KM lapse rates
Sunday morning. There continues to be some negative factors
though. The associated surface low will deepen and move across
the area, and the strongest shear moves out of the area before
the instability moves in. Will continue to hold off mention of
severe in the HWO/Graphicasts as there continues to be some
uncertainty.

The upper low will continue to move east Sunday night and Monday,
with some light rainshowers possible as moisture wraps around the
low. Light rainshowers will continue to be possible on Tuesday as
another short wave moves across the area. Another weak cold front
will drop across the area on Wednesday and this may kick off a few
more light afternoon showers. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  42  70  48 /   0   0   0   1
Meridian      66  40  70  46 /   0   0   0   1
Vicksburg     64  41  69  49 /   0   0   0   1
Hattiesburg   71  43  71  49 /   0   0   0   1
Natchez       65  42  69  49 /   0   0   0   1
Greenville    62  40  67  48 /   0   0   0   2
Greenwood     62  40  69  47 /   0   0   0   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

15



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