Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 211105
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
605 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.AVIATION...Generally VFR conditions are expected through the
period, however isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon. Periods of however vis and ceilings can be
expected in and around storms. Near calm winds this morning will
become light and generally south late morning to mid day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Higher chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected the next
few days as a weak upper trof axis meanders across the region.
As depicted by nearly all short range guidance, best chances
today appear to lie across E/SE TX amid relative deeper MSTR pool
and remnant outflows from convection yesterday. Highest PoPs shift
eastward TUE and WED as the trof axis nudges a bit in that
direction as well. Little overall change in temperatures is
expected the next several days, with highs around 90 and lows in
the upper 60s north/lower 70s south. Any moderation will occur via
convection and/or cloud cover.

Considerable uncertainty enters the forecast toward the end of the
week and especially into the weekend as there is a fair amount of
spread/divergence in global model solutions regarding the
evolution of an upper low and associated SFC feature. GFS is by
far the weakest solution, depicting more of an elongated trof over
the central Gulf and a weak SFC low that lifts quickly NWD to the
east of FL. ECMWF is the strongest, with a vertically stacked low
over SC LA by SUN. The CMC is between these two, but is closer to
the ECMWF than the GFS. Leaned heavily on a consensus of the
ECMWF/CMC and WPC for the Day 4-7 forecast, which in terms of
sensible weather elements, was fairly close to the previous
forecast. Further revisions to these periods are likely over the
next few days as a hopefully better guidance consensus takes
shape.

13

MARINE...
Weak high pressure will continue to ridge over the coastal waters
through mid-week, with a mainly light southeast flow expected.
Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase by
Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the week as ridging
aloft weakens. Marine interests should monitor the forecast for
the weekend

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  69  92  69 /  30  10  40  20
LCH  90  71  90  72 /  30  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  30  10  50  20
BPT  89  71  90  72 /  50  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05



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