Area Forecast Discussion
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887
FXUS61 KPBZ 260533
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
133 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry weather for Thursday before rain
chances return Friday with low pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Persistent stratocu in NW flow across portions of the area
should slowly decrease overnight as sfc high pressure builds in.
Lows are expected to be around 5 degrees below average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave ridging and a brief spell of high pressure at the
surface will keep the area dry Thursday. A slow moving southern
stream system is projected across the Mid-Atlantic Region Thursday
night. Models differ slightly on the exact track as it turns
the corner and begins to phase with the broader trough. This
track will play a vital role in just how far west the
precipitation shield will come. Will carry a blend, but will
favor the easternmost models (NAM, EC). Regardless, rain chances
will increase later in the day Friday and Friday night as the
broader trough axis crosses the area. This will also usher in
cooler than average temperatures for the early part of the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence through the extended period as the rainy and
cool end of the week gives way to a warm and dry trend. High
pressure will begin to build at the surface late Saturday night
into Sunday. This will bring an end to precipitation chances and
establish clearing sky. Temperatures will temporarily be held
in check Sunday with lingering northwest flow aloft, but this
will quickly change heading into the middle of next week. A
building ridge will pass to our east by Tuesday evening
enhancing warming with southwest flow. Highs will soar into at
least the mid and upper 70s by Wednesday. The next appreciable
chance of precipitation will come by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stratocumulus continue to linger across the region this morning,
mainly from PIT on north. MVFR to spotty IFR ceilings are
resulting. The clouds will begin to break up towards morning as
high pressure starts to build in. Some patchy MVFR mist is
possible in the hours leading up to sunrise as well. By later in
the morning, VFR conditions can be expected across the region
for the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be light overall.

OUTLOOK...
The next chance for general restrictions is expected with the
crossing of weak low pressure on Friday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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