Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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259
FXUS61 KRLX 210231
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1031 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through the weekend. Next system arrives Monday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1030 PM Friday...

Adjusted hourly temperatures per latest sfc obs and HRRR model.
Rest of forecast remains representative.

As of 115 PM Friday...

High pressure remains in place through the near-term with clear
skies and dry conditions. Northwesterly winds continue today and
gradually lessen to light and variable over night. This combined
with clear skies and dewpoints below freezing indicate a good
radiational cooling night especially in sheltered valleys. As a
result, have followed the low-end of temperature guidance and
decreased incised valleys an additional degree or two to account
for this. This of course is a 2 meter temperature and extra
consideration should be taken by users for potentially lower
near-ground temperatures affecting vegetation.

As a result a Freeze Warning has been posted for most of the
area where the grow season has been included, with a frost
advisory covering the remaining zones. This now includes
Dickenson (frost), Buchanan (freeze) in VA and Wyoming, McDowell
(both freeze) in southern WV. NE KY, Lawrence OH, and Wayne WV
are also under a frost advisory.

Very dry air lurks just aloft, but low-level weak winds
especially tonight and tomorrow make it tough to mix these lower
values down to the surface especially as winds decrease through
tomorrow. However, it bears watching as there have been
localized low dew points observed today where mixing is
evidently happening. Current forecast indicates minRH in the
mid- to upper-20`s today with slightly lower minRH in the low-
to mid-20`s tomorrow with greater afternoon warming.

High cirrus clouds start to creep in from the WNW Saturday
afternoon ahead of a ridge aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM Friday...

Upper-level ridge builds over area early in the period and
remains in place into Monday. At the surface, an area of low
pressure will push east across the lower Mississippi River
valley into the southeastern states.

Dry weather Saturday night into Sunday will give way to
precipitation chances increasing from the southwest late Sunday
night into Monday.

Temperature guidance looks good and was generally followed.
Readings should be near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM Friday...

Upper level systems and a cold front pushing east will result in
unsettled weather through the period. As a result, expect
daytime temperatures will be below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 735 PM Friday...

CAVU.

High pressure continues to build over the region providing
clear skies and light to calm flow. Widespread VFR conditions
through the period.

A low pressure system in the southern stream will approach from
the southwest Sunday night bringing pcpn spreading from south
to north on Monday. MVFR conditions expected under light rain
becoming with periods of IFR Monday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR/IFR possible should BR/FG occur
tonight, however fog formation is unlikely at this time.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 04/21/18
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible Monday and Monday night under moderate
rainfall.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ006>011-013>020-
     024>031-033-034.
     Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ005.
OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>086.
     Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ087.
KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ004.
     Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ003.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MC
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ARJ



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