Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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AXUS74 KLZK 031753
DGTLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105-109-113-
115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-041200-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 03 2018

...MODERATE DROUGHT IN MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND A SEVERE DROUGHT IN
THE SOUTHWEST...

SYNOPSIS...

MUCH OF ARKANSAS HAD ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH
APRIL. THEN THE PATTERN CHANGED...AND A DRYING TREND FOLLOWED.
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARMED UP TO RECORD LEVELS. HOT WEATHER AND
AND A LACK OF RAIN DEPLETED SOIL MOISTURE AND STRESSED
VEGETATION.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF
DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2 /SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND D4
/EXCEPTIONAL/.

THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...VALID JULY 31ST 2018...
INDICATED WIDESPREAD D1 /61 PERCENT COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS...WITH
D2 /3 PERCENT COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...

A WEAK LA NINA /COOLER THAN NORMAL WATER ALONG THE EQUATOR IN
THE PACIFIC OCEAN/ WAS NEUTRALIZING /NEAR NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES/
EARLY THIS SUMMER. DURING THE FALL AND WINTER MONTHS...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A TRANSITION TO EL NINO /WARMER THAN NORMAL WATER/. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A WETTER PATTERN LATER THIS YEAR.

IN THE MEANTIME...IT WAS DRY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND WEST IN
JULY. RAINFALL WAS AROUND AN INCH TO MORE THAN TWO INCHES BELOW
AVERAGE AT EL DORADO /UNION COUNTY/...FORT SMITH /SEBASTIAN
COUNTY/...AND TEXARKANA /MILLER COUNTY/. THE SAME WAS TRUE IN
THE NORTHEAST.

THERE WAS A SURPLUS OF RAIN IN JULY FROM MENA /POLK COUNTY/
TO MOUNT IDA /MONTGOMERY COUNTY/...MURFREESBORO /PIKE COUNTY/...
AND ARKADELPHIA /CLARK COUNTY/. ABOVE AVERAGE LIQUID WAS ALSO
MEASURED THE NORTHWEST AT FAYETTEVILLE /WASHINGTON COUNTY/ AND
HARRISON /BOONE COUNTY/.

PRECIPITATION IN JULY 2018...

SITE                     AMOUNT    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/      4.31      3.46      +0.85        125
HARRISON /NC AR/          4.64      3.14      +1.50        148
JONESBORO /NE AR/         3.21      3.54      -0.33         91
FORT SMITH /WC AR/        2.31      3.30      -0.99         70
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/        3.29      3.27      +0.02        101
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/      3.12      3.41      -0.29         91
TEXARKANA /SW AR/         2.47      3.44      -0.97         72
EL DORADO /SC AR/         1.06      3.56      -2.50         30
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/        3.48      3.93      -0.45         89

IT WAS A DRY THREE MONTH PERIOD FROM MAY THROUGH JULY...
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAINFALL WAS 50 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE OR LESS AT EL DORADO /UNION COUNTY/ AND TEXARKANA
/MILLER COUNTY/.

PRECIPITATION FROM MAY 1 - JULY 31 2018...

SITE                     AMOUNT    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/     12.21     14.48      -2.27         84
HARRISON /NC AR/          9.09     12.07      -2.98         75
JONESBORO /NE AR/        10.52     11.90      -1.38         88
FORT SMITH /WC AR/        9.05     13.05      -4.00         69
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/        8.61     11.79      -3.18         73
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/      7.66     12.80      -5.14         60
TEXARKANA /SW AR/         6.10     12.98      -6.88         47
EL DORADO /SC AR/         5.10     13.51      -8.41         38
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/        7.96     12.56      -4.60         63

FOR THE YEAR...ALL WAS POSITIVE THROUGH APRIL. RAINFALL WAS ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL STATEWIDE...INCLUDING A SURPLUS OF MORE THAN
A FOOT OF LIQUID AT PINE BLUFF /JEFFERSON COUNTY/. A SWITCH WAS
THROWN IN MAY...AND THE PICTURE WAS FAR MORE NEGATIVE. YEARLY
PRECIPITATION EXCESSES HAVE TURNED INTO SHORTAGES IN PARTS OF
THE REGION.

DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL RAINFALL IN 2018 /THROUGH JULY 31ST/...

SITE                  1/1 TO 4/30   5/1 TO 7/31   1/1 TO 7/31

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/     +2.39        -2.27         +0.12
HARRISON /NC AR/         +4.00        -2.98         +1.02
JONESBORO /NE AR/        +9.44        -1.38         +8.06
FORT SMITH /WC AR/       +2.24        -4.00         -1.76
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/       +9.05        -3.18         +5.87
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/     +4.88        -5.14         -0.26
TEXARKANA /SW AR/        +7.69        -6.88         +0.81
EL DORADO /SC AR/        +8.03        -8.41         -0.38
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/      +13.49        -4.60         +8.89

AS IT DRIED OUT LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES DID NOT COOPERATE. RECORD
WARMTH IN MAY/JUNE AND A LACK OF WATER MADE IT TOUGH FOR PLANTS
TO THRIVE.

RECORD WARM MAYS/JUNES IN ARKANSAS...

YEAR              AVG TEMP            DEPARTURE

2018                77.4                +4.8
1953                76.5                +3.9
2010                76.4                +3.8
1998                76.3                +3.7
1896                75.8                +3.2
1918                75.8                +3.2
2012                75.6                +3.0
1911                75.4                +2.8
1943                75.4                +2.8
1977                75.4                +2.8
1914                75.3                +2.7

SOIL MOISTURE/HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY/FIRE DANGER...

AS OF AUGUST 3RD...THERE WAS A MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER IN
HALF OF ARKANSAS /38 COUNTIES/. BURN BANS WERE POSTED IN
4 COUNTIES.

SOIL MOISTURE WAS CLOSE TO NORMAL /30TH TO 70TH PERCENTILE/ IN
FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND ALSO IN THE FAR WEST.
ELSEWHERE...VALUES WERE IN THE 10TH TO 30TH PERCENTILE.

STREAMFLOW ALONG AREA TRIBUTARIES WAS VERY LOW /LESS THAN THE
10TH PERCENTILE/ AT SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. IN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION...VALUES WERE CLOSE TO
AVERAGE /25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE/...AND BELOW AVERAGE /10TH
TO 24TH PERCENTILE/ IN SPOTS.

FORECAST...

LONG RANGE DATA IS SHOWING BELOW AVERAGE RAIN IN AUGUST AND
MAYBE SEPTEMBER. THIS IS DUE TO A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH HOT/DRY CONDITIONS COMMON UNDER THE HIGH.
IF THE DATA IS CORRECT...DROUGHT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND WORSEN LOCALLY.

IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE MILD/WET PERIODS...MAINLY WHEN THE
HIGH TEMPORARILY WOBBLES AWAY /TO THE WEST OR EAST/. THIS WAS
THE CASE IN LATE JULY. ALSO...A MORE ACTIVE/RAINY PATTERN MAY
SET UP BY OCTOBER.

THE WILDCARD WILL BE THE TROPICS...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IF TROPICAL SYSTEMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE INLAND. IT WAS VERY SLOW IN
THE TROPICS THROUGH JULY...WITH ONLY THREE NAMED STORMS.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK HOMEPAGE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

DROUGHT INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO WFO LITTLE ROCK CWA
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK/DROUGHT.HTM

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:
HTTPS://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV/DROUGHT/

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER:
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/MAP/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SOUTHERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER:
HTTPS://WWW.SRCC.LSU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:
HTTPS://WWW.USGS.GOV/

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
8400 REMOUNT ROAD
NORTH LITTLE ROCK AR 72118

PHONE: 501-834-0308
EMAIL: SR-LZK.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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