Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Miami FL
212 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook...
...Flood Risk is Below Average for South Florida...

SYNOPSIS...
South Florida observed below normal rainfall since November 2017,
as cold fronts have been mostly dry when moving through the
region. This has allowed for the development of abnormally dry
conditions (D0) over most of South Florida except for Glades
County.

Here are some rainfall totals and departures from normal at
several sites across South Florida from November 1st, 2017 to
February 28, 2018.

                            RAINFALL TOTAL    :    DEPARTURE
AIRPORTS

PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL        :     8.04    :    -6.04
NAPLES MUNICIPAL                :     1.78    :    -5.66
FT LAUDERDALE-HOLLYWOOD INTL    :     9.50    :    -2.79
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL             :     6.45    :    -2.73

SECONDARY OBSERVATION SITES

ORTONA LOCK (HENDRY)            :     4.03    :    -3.96
LA BELLE (HENDRY)               :     4.50    :    -3.85
MOORE HAVEN LOCK (GLADES)       :     3.22    :    -4.13
OPA LOCKA (MIAMI-DADE)          :     3.72    :    -6.45
HOMESTEAD (MIAMI-DADE)          :     3.99    :    -3.77
MIAMI BEACH (MIAMI-DADE)        :    11.36    :    +2.15
TAMIAMI AIRPORT (MIAMI-DADE)    :     5.25    :    -3.86
PERRINE (MIAMI-DADE)            :     6.79    :    -2.30
NORTH PERRY AIRPORT (BROWARD)   :    10.21    :    -1.65
FT LAUDERDALE EXEC (BROWARD)    :    16.83    :    +6.74
HIALEAH (MIAMI-DADE)            :     6.32    :    -4.22
PALM BEACH GARDENS (PALM BEACH) :    10.66    :    -1.65


                                  PERCENT OF NORMAL
                                 NOV 1,2017 - FEB 28,2017

NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT      24% (2ND driest dry season so far)
OPA LOCKA                     37% (4TH driest dry season so far)
MOORE HAVEN LOCK              44% (14TH driest dry season so far)
ORTONA LOCK                   50% (7TH driest dry season so far)
HOMESTEAD                     51% (4TH driest dry season so far)
LA BELLE                      54% (19TH driest dry season so far)
PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL      57% (28TH driest dry season so far)
TAMIAMI AIRPORT               58% (9TH driest dry season so far)
HIALEAH                       60% (17TH driest dry season so far)
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL           70% (27TH driest dry season so far)
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL 77% (10TH driest dry season so far)
PERRINE                       79% (26TH driest dry season so far)
NORTH PERRY AIRPORT           86% (9TH driest dry season so far)
PALM BEACH GARDENS            87% (9TH driest dry season so far)
MIAMI BEACH                  123%
FORT LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE    167%



HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS...
The wells over most of South Florida are running at near normal
levels, except over far southeastern Miami-Dade County where
they are in the 10th to 30th percentile range.

The most recent underground water reservoir levels in Palm Beach
County were around 16.6 feet which is near normal. In Broward County,
the levels were around 11.7 feet which is 0.7 feet above normal.
In Miami-Dade County, the underground water reservoirs levels were
around 9.7 feet which is 0.4 feet below normal.

The level of Lake Okeechobee was around 14.9 feet as of March 1,
around 0.4 feet above the normal level of 14.5 feet. The level of
Fisheating Creek was 1.4 feet as of March 1, around 0.6 feet below
the normal level of 2.0 feet for this time of year.


FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
As of February 28th, the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI)
was between 500 to 600 range over most of South Florida, with slightly
lower levels of 450 to 500 in Glades and Palm Beach counties. This
puts most of South Florida in a high to very high fire danger level,
except for Glades and Palm Beach counties where the fire danger level is
moderate.


RESPONSE/ACTIONS...
The South Florida Water Management District has continued
the yearly watering restrictions for South Florida. For more
information on the watering restrictions, please visit the South
Florida Water Management District web site at
http://www.sfwmd.gov/waterwatch.

OUTLOOK...
A strong cold front for this time of year will be moving through
South Florida on Friday, with high pressure building into the area
from the north for this weekend into early next week. This front
will be mainly a dry front as only scattered, fast moving showers
are expected.

The Climate Prediction Center`s precipitation outlook for the
next 6 to 14 days calls for an increased likelihood of above-normal
rainfall across South Florida. However, the outlook in general for
March through May is for continued below normal rainfall. As a result,
drought development is likely over the region into the spring.

There is an above normal potential of significant wildland fires,
especially in April and May, based on the increased likelihood of
dry conditions continuing this spring.

The next update on the drought conditions for South Florida will
be around the middle of March, unless conditions change before
that time. Stay tune to NOAA weather radio and other local media
for further details and updates.

$$

Baxter/Molleda



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