Extended Streamflow Guidance
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FGUS65 KSTR 071337
ESGCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT


                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         MAY 7, 2019

The 2019 spring runoff potential due to snowmelt is higher than usual at
this time for the Gunnison, San Juan, and Upper Colorado mainstem river
basins, somewhat elevated in the Dolores river basin, and near normal in the
Yampa/White river basin.

Currently, the following sites are forecast to have mean daily peak flows at or
above the flood flow at the given exceedance level:

Colorado River near Cameo                10%

In general, above average peaks are expected across western Colorado, with
highest flows, compared to average, forecast in the Gunnison river basin. Spring
flows are expected to be higher compared to last year in western Colorado. Areas
that typically experience high water in normal or above normal snow years will be
susceptible during peak runoff this year. Instantaneous peaks can be higher than
mean daily peaks, especially in headwater basins.

Spring temperatures and rain events greatly affect the pattern of snowmelt
runoff and consequently the magnitude of peak flows. It is important to keep in
mind that an extended period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall
during the melt period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.

Water year precipitation to date (October-April) is above average in all
basins across western Colorado with values between 110 and 130 percent of
average. April precipitation was near to below average:

Yampa/White               100%
Upper CO Mainstem         105%
Gunnison                  105%
Dolores/San Miguel         80%
San Juan                   75%

May 1st snow water equivalent (SWE) was above average across western Colorado:

Yampa/White               105%
Upper CO Mainstem         120%
Gunnison                  150%
Dolores/San Miguel        180%
San Juan                  150%

The current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are
above average across western Colorado river basins. Forecast volume
ranges, as a percent of average:

Yampa/White               100-120%
Upper CO Mainstem         105-130%
Gunnison                  120-160%
Dolores/San Miguel        120-150%
San Juan                  115-140%

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

Specific forecast procedures and flood flow levels do not exist for all streams.


MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS

LOCATION                   FLOOD     FCST   FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     DATE      90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930 2019-05-01   2300   2600   3000   3500   4000
ELK - MILNER, NR            5920 2019-05-01          3500   4000   4500   5000
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21200 2019-05-01          9000  10000  11000  12000
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR    15400 2019-05-01          4000   4500   5000   6000
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK     20700 2019-05-01         13000  14000  15000  17500
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          8510 2019-05-01   2400   2600   2800   3000   3500
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       2250 2019-05-01    430    450    480    540    600
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1650 2019-05-01    760    830    900   1000   1150
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    340 2019-05-01    100    110    120    130    150
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6500 2019-05-01   3100   3600   4000   4600   5500
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     17000 2019-05-01   7000   8000   9500  11000  13000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3100 2019-05-01   1900   2050   2200   2500   2800
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17000 2019-05-01   6000   6500   7000   8000   9000
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000 2019-05-01  15000  17000  19500  22000  26000
EAST - ALMONT               3160 2019-05-01   1900   2200   2400   2800   3000
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  14000 2019-05-01   3100   3500   3900   4300   5200
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1500 2019-05-01    250    270    330    350    400
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  21000 2019-05-01  10000  13000  13600  14000  14500
DOLORES - RICO, BLO         1790 2019-05-01    900   1000   1100   1300   1500
DOLORES - DOLORES           6800 2019-05-01   2700   3000   3200   3700   4000
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   -999 2019-05-01   1100   1200   1300   1500   1700
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46000 2019-05-01  24000  30000  34000  37000  42000
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   4700 2019-05-01   2200   2400   2700   3100   3600
ANIMAS - DURANGO           10400 2019-05-01   4200   4700   5400   5800   6300
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         9000 2019-05-01   4400   4900   5800   6400   7100
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR         1100 2019-05-01                  310    370    500


CBRFC/Moser


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