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000
FGUS63 KKRF 211506
ESGKSR

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1058 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  05/25/2019  - 08/23/2019

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:CHAPMAN CR AT CHAPMAN KS 4NNW
CHPK1              19.0  26.0  37.0   >98   31   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LYON CR AT JUNCTION CITY KS 7S
JNCK1              21.0  35.0  39.0   >98   30    8    5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT JUNCTION CITY KS 4SSW
JUCK1              22.0  32.0  44.0   >98   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS R AT FT RILEY KS
FTRK1              21.0  26.0  33.0   >98   18   28    5   <5   <5
:WILDCAT CR AT MANHATTAN KS SCENIC DR
MWCK1              14.0  17.0  23.0   >98   24   34   12   16    8
:KANSAS R AT MANHATTAN KS
MHKK1              18.0  26.0  42.0   >98   23    7   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS R AT WAMEGO KS NO.2
WMGK1              19.0  26.0  38.0   >98    6   36   <5   <5   <5
:VERMILLION R AT LOUISVILLE KS 5NE
LOUK1              30.0  34.0  44.0   >98   51  >98   35   <5   <5
:ROCK CR AT LOUISVILLE KS
LISK1              27.0  33.0  43.0    12    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS R AT BELVUE KS 4SE
BVUK1              20.0  28.0  33.0   >98    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CROSS CR AT ROSSVILLE KS
RSSK1              25.0  29.0  31.0    18    9    6   <5   <5   <5
:MILL CR AT PAXICO KS 1SW
PXCK1              21.0  31.0  33.0   >98   40    7    5   <5   <5
:KANSAS R AT TOPEKA KS
TPAK1              26.0  27.0  44.0   >98    5  >98    5   <5   <5
:SOLDIER CR AT DELIA KS 3E
DELK1              26.0  26.5  29.5    26   17   20   15   <5   <5
:SOLDIER CR AT TOPEKA KS 4NW
TOPK1              29.0  34.0  40.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:DELAWARE R AT MUSCOTAH KS 2S
MSCK1              27.0  28.0  36.0   >98   32  >98   24   <5   <5
:KANSAS R AT LECOMPTON KS 1NE
LCPK1              17.0  23.8  38.0   >98   13   10   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS R AT LAWRENCE KS HWY 40
LWRK1              18.0  20.0  29.0   >98   20  >98    8   <5   <5
:WAKARUSA R AT LAWRENCE KS 4S
LAWK1              23.0  25.0  45.0    28   13   19   11   <5   <5
:STRANGER CR AT EASTON KS
ESTK1              17.0  18.0  23.0   >98   71  >98   69   24   21
:STRANGER CR AT TONGANOXIE KS 4E
TNGK1              23.0  30.0  35.0   >98   49   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS R AT DESOTO KS 1N
DSOK1              26.0  33.0  36.0   >98    5   21   <5    8   <5
:KANSAS R AT KC KS TURNER BR
TNRK1              41.0  47.5  54.0   >98    5  >98   <5    5   <5
:KANSAS R AT KC KS 23RD ST
KCKK1              33.0  54.0  55.0   >98   32    6   <5    5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0525 Z DH12 /DC1905202258/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 05/25/2019  - 08/23/2019

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:CHAPMAN CR
CHPK1      22.2/   22.2/   22.2/   22.2/   22.2/   22.7/   23.1

:LYON CR
JNCK1      23.7/   23.7/   23.7/   23.7/   27.4/   34.1/   37.0

:SMOKY HILL R
JUCK1      23.0/   23.0/   23.0/   23.0/   23.4/   24.3/   25.6

:KANSAS R
FTRK1      25.2/   25.2/   25.2/   25.4/   26.7/   29.0/   31.6

:WILDCAT CR
MWCK1      15.3/   15.3/   15.3/   15.3/   19.3/   25.9/   27.4

:KANSAS R
MHKK1      22.8/   22.8/   22.8/   22.8/   23.9/   25.2/   27.1
WMGK1      25.9/   25.9/   25.9/   25.9/   26.3/   26.9/   28.4

:VERMILLION R
LOUK1      37.8/   37.8/   37.8/   37.8/   38.8/   41.9/   42.6

:ROCK CR
LISK1      20.0/   20.0/   20.0/   20.0/   22.1/   27.9/   29.8

:KANSAS R
BVUK1      24.2/   24.2/   24.2/   24.2/   24.6/   25.2/   26.7

:CROSS CR
RSSK1      22.4/   22.4/   22.4/   22.4/   23.0/   27.6/   29.4

:MILL CR
PXCK1      23.8/   23.8/   23.8/   23.8/   26.6/   30.2/   31.9

:KANSAS R
TPAK1      33.0/   33.0/   33.0/   33.0/   33.8/   34.3/   36.7

:SOLDIER CR
DELK1      24.5/   24.5/   24.5/   24.5/   26.1/   28.1/   28.7
TOPK1      16.3/   16.3/   16.3/   16.3/   17.9/   21.5/   25.2

:DELAWARE R
MSCK1      28.3/   28.3/   28.3/   28.3/   28.3/   31.6/   33.2

:KANSAS R
LCPK1      22.8/   22.8/   22.8/   22.8/   23.1/   23.9/   24.8
LWRK1      25.5/   25.5/   25.5/   25.5/   26.5/   27.3/   28.4

:WAKARUSA R
LAWK1      18.5/   18.5/   18.5/   20.6/   23.2/   27.9/   28.5

:STRANGER CR
ESTK1      21.7/   21.7/   21.7/   21.7/   22.8/   23.5/   25.7
TNGK1      26.1/   26.1/   26.1/   26.1/   26.2/   27.0/   28.2

:KANSAS R
DSOK1      31.7/   31.7/   31.7/   31.7/   32.0/   35.2/   38.3
TNRK1      48.4/   48.4/   48.4/   48.4/   48.4/   50.4/   53.5
KCKK1      49.5/   49.5/   49.5/   49.5/   49.6/   51.6/   54.8
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0525 Z DH12 /DC1905202258/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 05/25/2019  - 08/23/2019

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:CHAPMAN CR
CHPK1       5.8/    5.2/    5.1/    4.9/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8

:LYON CR
JNCK1       6.5/    6.3/    6.1/    6.0/    6.0/    5.9/    5.9

:SMOKY HILL R
JUCK1      11.5/    7.3/    6.9/    6.1/    5.6/    5.5/    5.0

:KANSAS R
FTRK1      11.4/    9.3/    9.1/    8.7/    8.4/    8.2/    8.2

:WILDCAT CR
MWCK1       3.6/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3

:KANSAS R
MHKK1      11.6/    9.5/    9.3/    8.9/    8.6/    8.4/    8.4
WMGK1       8.5/    7.4/    6.8/    6.3/    6.0/    5.9/    5.8

:VERMILLION R
LOUK1       8.2/    7.6/    7.3/    7.0/    6.9/    6.7/    6.7

:ROCK CR
LISK1       9.0/    9.0/    8.8/    8.8/    8.7/    8.7/    8.7

:KANSAS R
BVUK1      11.4/    9.5/    8.9/    8.4/    8.1/    7.9/    7.8

:CROSS CR
RSSK1       8.0/    7.7/    7.6/    7.5/    7.5/    7.4/    7.4

:MILL CR
PXCK1       3.2/    2.9/    2.6/    2.3/    2.1/    1.5/    1.5

:KANSAS R
TPAK1      11.9/    9.6/    8.7/    8.2/    7.8/    7.6/    7.5

:SOLDIER CR
DELK1       7.0/    6.8/    6.6/    6.6/    6.5/    6.5/    6.4
TOPK1       0.6/    0.5/    0.3/    0.2/    0.2/    0.2/    0.2

:DELAWARE R
MSCK1       2.5/    2.3/    2.2/    2.1/    1.9/    1.7/    1.7

:KANSAS R
LCPK1       7.9/    6.2/    5.3/    5.0/    4.6/    4.4/    4.3
LWRK1      14.2/   13.4/   13.0/   12.8/   12.7/   12.7/   12.6

:WAKARUSA R
LAWK1       4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.4/    4.4/    4.3/    4.3

:STRANGER CR
ESTK1       2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    1.9/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7
TNGK1       2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    1.7/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5

:KANSAS R
DSOK1      10.4/    8.7/    7.8/    7.5/    7.1/    7.0/    6.8

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$



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