Extended Streamflow Guidance
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FGUS63 KKRF 201458
ESGMOM

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1058 PM CDT MON AUG 19 2019

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  08/24/2019  - 11/22/2019

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:MISSOURI R AT SOUTH SIOUX CITY NE
SSCN1              30.0  33.0  36.0     9   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MISSOURI R AT DECATUR NE
DCTN1              35.0  38.0  41.0    13   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MISSOURI R AT BLAIR NE 2E
BLAN1              26.5  28.2  33.0    26    5   15   <5   <5   <5
:MISSOURI R AT OMAHA NE
OMHN1              29.0  32.0  40.0    17   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MISSOURI R AT NEBRASKA CITY NE
NEBN1              18.0  23.0  27.0   >98   24    8   <5   <5   <5
:MISSOURI R AT BROWNVILLE NE
BRON1              34.0  38.5  43.0   >98   28    8   <5   <5   <5
:MISSOURI R AT RULO NE
RULN1              17.0  21.0  26.0   >98   31   51   13   <5   <5
:MISSOURI R AT ST JOSEPH MO
SJSM7              17.0  21.0  27.0   >98   21   38   15    9   <5
:MISSOURI R AT ATCHISON KS NO.1
ATCK1              22.0  27.0  30.0   >98   17   16   <5    8   <5
:MISSOURI R AT LEAVENWORTH KS
LEVK1              20.0  24.0  30.0    41   15   16   <5    5   <5
:MISSOURI R AT KANSAS CITY MO
KCDM7              32.0  35.0  49.0    29    5   20   <5   <5   <5
:MISSOURI R AT SIBLEY MO 1E
SBEM7              22.0  29.0  31.0   >98   30   31    9   24   <5
:MISSOURI R AT NAPOLEON MO
NAPM7              17.0  25.0  30.0   >98   46   33   10    9   <5
:MISSOURI R AT WAVERLY MO
WVYM7              20.0  29.0  31.0   >98   45   31    9   26   <5
:MISSOURI R AT MIAMI MO
MIAM7              18.0  28.0  29.0   >98   45   31    9   27    5
:MISSOURI R AT GLASGOW MO
GLZM7              25.0  27.0  32.0   >98   41  >98   35   41   20
:MISSOURI R AT BOONVILLE MO
BOZM7              21.0  30.0  34.0   >98   42   25   15   13   <5
:MISSOURI R AT JEFFERSON CITY MO
JFFM7              23.0  25.0  30.0   >98   32  >98   23   24   15
:OSAGE R AT ST THOMAS MO
STTM7              23.0  30.0  35.0     9    6    5   <5    5   <5
:OSAGE R AT MARI-OSA CAMPGND MO
MOAM7              19.0  22.0  25.0   >98   24   25   13   15   11
:MISSOURI R AT CHAMOIS MO 1NE
CMSM7              17.0  28.0  31.0   >98   40   20   10    8   <5
:MISSOURI R AT GASCONADE MO 1NE
GSCM7              22.0  34.0  37.0   >98   41    8    5   <5   <5
:MISSOURI R AT HERMANN MO
HRNM7              21.0  26.0  33.0   >98   40   52   18   18   10
:MISSOURI R AT WASHINGTON MO
WHGM7              20.0  28.0  31.0   >98   28   20   10   15    9
:MISSOURI R AT ST CHARLES MO 1E
SCLM7              25.0  30.0  36.0   >98   30   31   15   16    9

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0824 Z DH12 /DC1908192258/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 08/24/2019  - 11/22/2019

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:MISSOURI R
SSCN1      22.9/   22.9/   23.0/   23.2/   25.0/   29.2/   30.7
DCTN1      32.0/   32.0/   32.1/   32.2/   33.5/   36.2/   37.1
BLAN1      24.1/   24.1/   24.4/   24.7/   26.7/   29.1/   29.7
OMHN1      25.6/   25.6/   25.7/   26.2/   28.2/   30.2/   30.8
NEBN1      19.4/   19.4/   19.5/   20.5/   21.6/   22.7/   23.4
BRON1      35.4/   35.5/   35.5/   36.4/   37.2/   38.2/   39.8
RULN1      19.8/   19.8/   19.8/   21.0/   22.6/   24.2/   25.1
SJSM7      19.7/   19.8/   19.8/   20.7/   21.8/   26.7/   30.4
ATCK1      22.5/   22.5/   22.5/   23.0/   24.3/   29.3/   31.9
LEVK1      19.3/   19.3/   19.3/   19.6/   21.0/   26.5/   30.8
KCDM7      29.6/   29.6/   29.6/   29.6/   33.5/   36.4/   39.8
SBEM7      27.9/   27.9/   27.9/   27.9/   30.7/   32.4/   33.5
NAPM7      24.5/   24.5/   24.5/   24.5/   27.6/   29.4/   30.6
WVYM7      28.2/   28.2/   28.2/   28.2/   31.2/   31.8/   31.9
MIAM7      27.3/   27.3/   27.3/   27.3/   29.1/   29.9/   30.9
GLZM7      30.7/   30.7/   30.7/   30.7/   34.5/   38.1/   38.6
BOZM7      26.6/   26.6/   26.6/   26.6/   30.1/   34.6/   35.1
JFFM7      26.2/   26.2/   26.2/   26.3/   29.7/   35.0/   35.5

:OSAGE R
STTM7      14.1/   16.0/   16.4/   17.0/   18.0/   21.2/   32.6
MOAM7      20.1/   20.1/   20.1/   20.2/   22.0/   29.3/   36.3

:MISSOURI R
CMSM7      22.0/   22.0/   22.0/   22.8/   25.0/   30.9/   32.1
GSCM7      27.3/   27.3/   27.3/   28.0/   29.8/   33.9/   35.1
HRNM7      25.4/   25.4/   25.4/   26.3/   28.4/   36.2/   37.6
WHGM7      21.2/   21.2/   21.2/   22.4/   24.5/   32.4/   34.1
SCLM7      27.5/   27.5/   27.5/   28.3/   30.6/   37.5/   39.4
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0824 Z DH12 /DC1908192258/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 08/24/2019  - 11/22/2019

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:MISSOURI R
SSCN1      20.5/   18.6/   18.0/   17.8/   17.3/   17.1/   16.6
DCTN1      30.2/   28.9/   28.4/   28.1/   27.9/   27.7/   27.1
BLAN1      22.2/   20.8/   20.1/   19.8/   19.4/   19.2/   18.6
OMHN1      23.5/   22.2/   21.6/   21.2/   20.9/   20.6/   20.1
NEBN1      17.7/   17.2/   16.7/   16.3/   16.0/   15.8/   15.2
BRON1      34.0/   33.6/   32.9/   32.4/   32.0/   31.7/   31.1
RULN1      17.3/   16.6/   15.8/   15.3/   15.0/   14.7/   14.2
SJSM7      15.1/   14.5/   13.6/   13.2/   12.7/   12.4/   11.9
ATCK1      17.0/   16.2/   15.2/   14.5/   13.8/   13.4/   12.7
LEVK1      11.4/   10.5/    9.3/    8.5/    7.8/    7.5/    6.8
KCDM7      19.8/   17.8/   16.5/   16.1/   15.5/   15.2/   14.8
SBEM7      19.5/   16.9/   15.5/   14.9/   14.2/   13.9/   13.4
NAPM7      16.8/   14.5/   13.5/   13.1/   12.6/   12.3/   12.0
WVYM7      19.9/   17.9/   17.2/   16.5/   16.1/   15.8/   15.4
MIAM7      17.7/   15.4/   14.1/   13.3/   12.6/   12.3/   11.8
GLZM7      21.0/   19.4/   17.8/   17.2/   16.6/   16.4/   15.9
BOZM7      17.4/   16.2/   14.8/   14.1/   13.5/   13.2/   12.9
JFFM7      16.8/   15.6/   13.7/   12.9/   12.1/   11.8/   11.5

:OSAGE R
STTM7       3.6/    3.3/    3.0/    2.6/    2.5/    1.1/    1.1

:MISSOURI R
CMSM7      13.1/   12.3/    9.5/    8.2/    7.2/    6.9/    6.4
GSCM7      17.4/   16.4/   13.1/   11.5/   10.3/    9.9/    9.2
HRNM7      16.8/   15.8/   13.1/   11.7/   10.8/   10.4/    9.8
WHGM7      12.5/   11.4/    8.5/    7.1/    6.2/    5.7/    5.3
SCLM7      20.3/   19.5/   17.0/   15.8/   15.1/   14.7/   14.3

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$




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