Extended Streamflow Guidance
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000
FGUS63 KKRF 211535
ESGMOM

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1058 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  05/25/2019  - 08/23/2019

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:MISSOURI R AT SOUTH SIOUX CITY NE
SSCN1              30.0  33.0  36.0    19    5    9   <5   <5   <5
:MISSOURI R AT DECATUR NE
DCTN1              35.0  38.0  41.0    21    5    8   <5   <5   <5
:MISSOURI R AT BLAIR NE 2E
BLAN1              26.5  28.2  33.0    49    8   28    6   <5   <5
:MISSOURI R AT OMAHA NE
OMHN1              29.0  32.0  40.0    40   14   20    6   <5   <5
:MISSOURI R AT NEBRASKA CITY NE
NEBN1              18.0  23.0  27.0   >98   35  >98   16   <5   <5
:MISSOURI R AT BROWNVILLE NE
BRON1              34.0  38.5  43.0   >98   43  >98   21   28    8
:MISSOURI R AT RULO NE
RULN1              17.0  21.0  26.0   >98   50  >98   39   31    8
:MISSOURI R AT ST JOSEPH MO
SJSM7              17.0  21.0  27.0   >98   55  >98   31  >98   14
:MISSOURI R AT ATCHISON KS NO.1
ATCK1              22.0  27.0  30.0   >98   44  >98   20  >98   10
:MISSOURI R AT LEAVENWORTH KS
LEVK1              20.0  24.0  30.0   >98   30  >98   19  >98    5
:MISSOURI R AT KANSAS CITY MO
KCDM7              32.0  35.0  49.0   >98   17  >98    7    6   <5
:MISSOURI R AT SIBLEY MO 1E
SBEM7              22.0  29.0  31.0   >98   50  >98   15  >98    6
:MISSOURI R AT NAPOLEON MO
NAPM7              17.0  25.0  30.0   >98   60  >98   19  >98   <5
:MISSOURI R AT WAVERLY MO
WVYM7              20.0  29.0  31.0   >98   63  >98   15  >98    5
:MISSOURI R AT MIAMI MO
MIAM7              18.0  28.0  29.0   >98   62  >98   13  >98    6
:MISSOURI R AT GLASGOW MO
GLZM7              25.0  27.0  32.0   >98   53  >98   44  >98   22
:MISSOURI R AT BOONVILLE MO
BOZM7              21.0  35.0  36.0   >98   53  >98   <5   24   <5
:MISSOURI R AT JEFFERSON CITY MO
JFFM7              23.0  25.0  30.0   >98   43  >98   34  >98    8
:OSAGE R AT ST THOMAS MO
STTM7              23.0  30.0  35.0    17    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:OSAGE R AT MARI-OSA CAMPGND MO
MOAM7              19.0  22.0  25.0   >98   42  >98   11  >98    8
:MISSOURI R AT CHAMOIS MO 1NE
CMSM7              17.0  28.0  31.0   >98   55  >98    5  >98   <5
:MISSOURI R AT GASCONADE MO 1NE
GSCM7              22.0  34.0  37.0   >98   55  >98    5   24   <5
:MISSOURI R AT HERMANN MO
HRNM7              21.0  26.0  33.0   >98   54  >98   22  >98    5
:MISSOURI R AT WASHINGTON MO
WHGM7              20.0  28.0  31.0   >98   41  >98    5  >98   <5
:MISSOURI R AT ST CHARLES MO 1E
SCLM7              25.0  30.0  36.0   >98   48  >98   15  >98   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0525 Z DH12 /DC1905202258/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 05/25/2019  - 08/23/2019

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:MISSOURI R
SSCN1      23.6/   23.6/   23.6/   24.0/   26.5/   32.5/   34.9
DCTN1      31.2/   31.2/   31.2/   31.6/   33.9/   37.5/   40.0
BLAN1      25.7/   25.7/   25.7/   26.3/   28.9/   30.6/   32.4
OMHN1      27.8/   27.8/   27.8/   28.3/   30.9/   34.1/   35.1
NEBN1      23.1/   23.1/   23.1/   23.3/   24.6/   25.9/   26.4
BRON1      41.4/   41.4/   41.4/   41.5/   43.5/   45.9/   48.9
RULN1      25.5/   25.5/   25.5/   25.5/   26.1/   26.7/   27.6
SJSM7      29.7/   29.7/   29.7/   29.7/   29.9/   31.8/   36.1
ATCK1      31.5/   31.5/   31.5/   31.5/   31.6/   32.5/   34.2
LEVK1      30.1/   30.1/   30.1/   30.1/   30.2/   32.6/   38.2
KCDM7      44.9/   44.9/   44.9/   44.9/   45.0/   47.1/   50.5
SBEM7      34.7/   34.7/   34.7/   34.7/   34.8/   35.1/   35.6
NAPM7      30.9/   30.9/   30.9/   30.9/   30.9/   31.1/   31.4
WVYM7      32.1/   32.1/   32.1/   32.1/   32.1/   32.1/   32.2
MIAM7      31.3/   31.3/   31.3/   31.3/   31.4/   31.8/   32.1
GLZM7      39.3/   39.3/   39.3/   39.3/   39.3/   39.4/   39.5
BOZM7      35.7/   35.7/   35.7/   35.7/   35.9/   36.3/   36.5
JFFM7      35.9/   35.9/   35.9/   36.0/   36.2/   36.8/   37.3

:OSAGE R
STTM7      17.5/   17.5/   17.7/   18.7/   22.6/   24.0/   25.5
MOAM7      25.7/   26.0/   26.2/   26.6/   32.0/   32.8/   33.7

:MISSOURI R
CMSM7      31.4/   31.4/   31.4/   31.5/   31.7/   32.2/   32.5
GSCM7      36.8/   36.8/   36.8/   36.8/   37.0/   37.4/   38.1
HRNM7      36.1/   36.1/   36.1/   36.2/   36.4/   37.0/   37.8
WHGM7      32.5/   32.5/   32.5/   32.6/   32.8/   33.4/   34.4
SCLM7      37.6/   37.6/   37.6/   37.7/   38.0/   38.7/   39.8
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0525 Z DH12 /DC1905202258/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 05/25/2019  - 08/23/2019

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:MISSOURI R
SSCN1      16.7/   15.2/   11.7/    9.0/    7.8/    4.7/    4.7
DCTN1      24.8/   22.8/   19.4/   16.6/   15.1/   10.5/   10.5
BLAN1      18.3/   16.2/   13.5/   11.4/   10.4/    6.2/    6.2
OMHN1      17.9/   14.6/   10.4/    7.4/    6.1/    4.7/    4.7
NEBN1      13.2/   10.1/    7.1/    5.1/    3.6/    2.5/    2.5
BRON1      28.2/   25.0/   22.0/   19.1/   16.5/   16.5/   16.5
RULN1      14.7/   12.1/    9.8/    8.0/    6.5/    3.4/    0.7
SJSM7      14.7/   12.4/    9.9/    7.9/    6.3/    3.4/    0.7
ATCK1      15.8/   12.9/    8.6/    5.7/    3.7/    0.7/    0.0
LEVK1       9.7/    6.8/    3.0/    0.6/   -1.3/   -4.5/   -6.0
KCDM7      20.1/   16.0/   14.8/   11.8/   10.2/    8.8/    5.6
SBEM7      19.0/   14.3/   13.1/    9.8/    8.0/    6.3/    2.4
NAPM7      16.4/   12.6/   11.7/    9.0/    7.5/    6.3/    4.1
WVYM7      20.3/   16.7/   15.9/   13.5/   12.0/   10.7/    8.1
MIAM7      17.8/   12.7/   11.6/    8.4/    6.7/    4.7/    1.5
GLZM7      21.1/   16.8/   15.6/   12.7/   10.9/    9.4/    6.7
BOZM7      17.4/   13.8/   12.3/    9.7/    8.1/    6.9/    4.7
JFFM7      17.2/   14.0/   11.3/    8.6/    6.8/    5.4/    3.3

:OSAGE R
STTM7       3.5/    3.4/    3.2/    3.0/    2.4/    1.3/    1.1

:MISSOURI R
CMSM7      13.8/   10.4/    5.9/    3.6/    0.2/   -1.5/   -3.0
GSCM7      17.7/   12.7/    6.7/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0
HRNM7      17.9/   14.5/    9.9/    7.5/    4.6/    3.0/    1.6
WHGM7      14.8/   11.0/    6.4/    4.3/    1.4/   -0.0/   -1.0
SCLM7      22.0/   18.6/   14.5/   12.7/    9.8/    8.4/    7.2

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$



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