Extended Streamflow Guidance
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER NORTON MA
430 PM EDT WED MAY 01 2019

...FOR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USE ONLY...

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /9/

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN MAINE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN REGION OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...UPPER REACHES OF THE
HUDSON RIVER ALONG THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED FOR THE SEASON.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

APRIL 2019 WAS CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE NERFC AREA. IN ADDITION TO
MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...THE DAILY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY WAS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL.

APRIL 2019 TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES HAVE MOSTLY RANGED FROM 1F TO 4F
ABOVE NORMAL. THE GREATEST ABOVE NORMAL DEPARTURES WERE FOUND ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES (0 TO -1F) WERE
FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS MAINE.

APRIL 2019 PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE RANGED FROM NEAR NORMAL UP
TO 4.00 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THE GREATEST DEPARTURES WERE FOUND
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.

COUNTIES WITH THE HIGHEST APRIL PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES INCLUDE
HAMPDEN...HAMPSHIRE...NORFOLK AND WORCESTER COUNTIES IN
MASSACHUSETTS...HARTFORD...LITCHFIELD...TOLLAND AND WINDHAM COUNTIES
IN CONNECTICUT...PROVIDENCE...KENT AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN RHODE
ISLAND...RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT...WASHINGTON AND
WARREN COUNTIES IN NEW YORK.

SINCE THE LAST OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED APRIL 18TH...AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURES HAVE RANGED FROM NEAR NORMAL UP TO 5.0 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MILDEST DEPARTURE WAS +5.0F AT BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT.
THE EXCEPTIONS WERE SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES UP TO
-0.5 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AT CARIBOU MAINE AND BUFFALO NEW YORK.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HAS CONTINUED SINCE LAST OUTLOOK WAS
ISSUED. THIS HAS HELPED KEEP MOST AREA PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES SINCE LAST OUTLOOK HAVE
RANGED FROM 0.25 INCH TO 2.50+ INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THREE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS OCCURRED ON THE 19TH-20TH...22ND-
23RD AND 26TH-27TH. YET A FOURTH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT WAS
OCCURRING MAY 1ST-2ND WITH 0.25 TO 1.00+ INCH OF QPF EXPECTED.

A WEAK EL NINO CONTINUES AS ABOVE AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR THE EQUATOR.
MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE WEAK EL NINO HAS ALLOWED FOR AN ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO) HAS RETURNED TO ITS NEGATIVE PHASE ALLOWING FOR RECURRING
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

LONG RANGE MODELS...MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST DATA AND
TELECONNECTION INDICES CURRENTLY SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
IS ANTICIPATED WITH CHANCES FOR SOME ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON INDIVIDUAL LOW TRACKS
ALTHOUGH A NEGATIVE NAO SIGNAL TYPICALLY FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

IMPACT OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND PHASING OF
JET STREAM DISTURBANCES...OF WHICH THERE IS STILL SOME
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

IT APPEARS AT LEAST THREE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE LIKELY
DURING THE OUTLOOK...MAY 3-4...MAY 5 AND AROUND MAY 7-8. SOME OF THE
ENSEMBLE DATA IS HINTING AT AT LEAST ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING WEEK TWO BUT CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON
DETAILS AS THERE IS A WIDE DISPARITY OF SOLUTIONS.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR 6 MAY
THROUGH 14 MAY 2019 IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ASSESSMENT FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW COVER DECREASED FROM 34 TO 12 PERCENT ACROSS THE NERFC AREA
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS FROM APRIL 18TH TO MAY 1ST. IN
ADDITION THE AVERAGE AREAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT DECREASED FROM 1.5
INCHES TO 0.3 INCH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT MELT AND RUNOFF HAS OCCURRED DUE TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL EVENTS APRIL 19-20TH AND APRIL 26TH-27TH.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE STILL 125 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY IN DEEP WOODED AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. LOWER ELEVATIONS AND OPEN
AREAS HAVE MOSTLY BARE GROUND NOW.

...NEW YORK STATE...

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS MOST OF NEW YORK STATE.

PATCHY SNOW COVER REMAINS ACROSS DEEP WOODED AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OF THE CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN ALONG THE UPPER REACHES OF THE HUDSON RIVER NEAR
NEWCOMB. BASIN AVERAGE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM A TRACE UP
TO 2 INCHES.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...VERMONT...

THE GROUND IS NOW BARE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE...PARTICULARLY LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND OPEN AREAS. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN ACROSS DEEP WOODED AREAS AND 1 TO 2+ FEET
ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AREAS. MOUNT MANSFIELD ELEVATION
4400 FT REPORTED A 78 INCH SNOW DEPTH AS OF 28 APRIL 2019. THIS SNOW
DEPTH WAS AROUND TWO FEET ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

BASIN AVERAGE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS DEEP WOODED AREAS AND THE HIGH TERRAIN. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW WATER REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. HIGHEST BASIN AVERAGE
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS WERE FOUND NEAR WATERBURY RESERVOIR...DALTON
AND NORTH STRATFORD ALONG THE UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER.

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE EXCEPT DEEP WOODED AND
MOSTLY HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS DEEPER WOODED AREAS TO
LOCALLY 1 TO 2+ FEET ACROSS SOME OF THE PEAKS. BASIN AVERAGE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS VARY FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THESE
AREAS...EXCEPT AROUND 5 INCHES IN THE UPPER REACHES OF WOODSTOCK.

SECOND LAKE IN PITTSBURG RECENTLY HAD 65 PERCENT SNOW COVER...7.7
INCHES OF AVERAGE SNOW DEPTH AND 2.9 INCHES OF AVERAGE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT.

MOOSE FALLS IN COOS COUNTY RECENTLY HAD 100 PERCENT SNOW COVER...21
INCH SNOW DEPTH AND 8.9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS WERE FOUND ALONG THE UPPER
REACHES OF THE MERRIMACK AND PEMIGEWASSETT RIVERS IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NEAR WOODSTOCK...UPPER REACHES OF THE SACO RIVER AT CONWAY
AND THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT NORTH DALTON AND NORTH STRATFORD. SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WERE RANGING FROM 125
TO 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL.

...MAINE...

BARE GROUND EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN MAINE.

SNOW COVER ACROSS WESTERN MAINE IS NOW MOSTLY PREVALENT ACROSS
DEEPER WOODED AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS DEEP WOODED AND HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS TO 1 TO 2+ FEET ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN
WESTERN MAINE...BUT LOCALLY SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS SOME OF THE PEAKS.
THE UPPER REACHES OF THE SWIFT RIVER AT ROXBURY INDICATED A SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE
FOUND HERE AND ALONG THE SAINT JOHN AT NINE MILE BRIDGE...KENNEBEC
RIVER AT THE FORKS AND BIG BLACK RIVER.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS...

APRIL 2019 EXHIBITED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH
INCREASING SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN BASINS.

MOISTURE STATES HAVE MOSTLY INCREASED OR REMAINED STEADY IN SOME
AREAS THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY INFORMATION FROM 29 APRIL 2019 INDICATE THAT
WETTER THAN NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
NERFC AREA. THE MOST NOTABLE INCREASE HAS OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS EXIST FROM NEAR
LAKE ONTARIO TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION OF NEW YORK.

DEVELOPING GREENUP AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
INCREASED ABSORPTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BASINS. EVEN SO...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN APRIL HAS
KEPT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WETTER THAN NORMAL.

THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX LOOKS AT MOISTURE STATES
FROM WEEKS TO SEVERAL MONTHS IN THE PAST. THE LATEST PDSI FROM 27
APRIL 2019 INDICATED MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW YORK STATE REMAINING REMAINING EXTREMELY MOIST. SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...DOWNEAST MAINE AND WESTERN NEW YORK REMAIN VERY MOIST.
UNUSUALLY MOIST CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR MAINE...
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS. PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN VERMONT WERE EXHIBITING NEAR
NORMAL MOISTURE STATES.

TAKING A LOOK AT GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS THE REGION
COURTESY OF THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY ( USGS )...MOST
AREAS ARE INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS HEADING INTO EARLY MAY.

SOME EXCEPTIONS EXIST PARTICULARLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW YORK ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...ALSO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. SOME NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL GROUNDWATER LEVELS EXIST IN THESE AREAS.

GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE NOW HIGHEST ACROSS MAINE....PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.

IN NEW YORK STATE...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE...
PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY REGIONS. RECHARGE FROM MELT NEAR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING APRIL HAS MOSTLY HELPED INCREASE LEVELS.

THE WOODGATE NY GROUNDWATER LEVEL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS
WAS CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND THE HIGHEST MEDIAN
LEVEL FOR LATE APRIL IN ITS 89 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD. GRIFFIN NY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS WAS REPORTING BETWEEN 90TH TO HIGHEST
MEDIAN LEVELS FOR LATE APRIL IN ITS 35 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD.

THE UPTON NY GROUNDWATER SITE ON LONG ISLAND OBSERVED 75TH-90TH
PERCENTILE LEVELS IN ITS 64 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD FOR LATE APRIL.

MORAVIA NY ALONG THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES WAS REPORTING ITS LOWEST
MEDIAN TO 10TH PERCENTILE LEVEL FOR LATE APRIL IN ITS 42 YEAR PERIOD
OF RECORD.

IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL.

IN CONNECTICUT...GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL HEADING INTO EARLY MAY.

SOUTHBURY WAS REPORTING ITS HIGHEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR
LATE APRIL IN ITS 25 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD. CLINTON WAS ALSO
REPORTING ITS HIGHEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR LATE APRIL IN ITS
27 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD.

ELSEWHERE GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE GENERALLY AVERAGING WITHIN THE
75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE FOR LATE APRIL.

IN RHODE ISLAND...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL HEADING INTO EARLY MAY.

BURRILVILLE IN PROVIDENCE COUNTY WAS REPORTING ITS HIGHEST MEDIAN
GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR LATE APRIL IN ITS 24 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD.

RICHMOND IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WAS REPORTING BETWEEN 90TH TO HIGHEST
MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR LATE APRIL IN ITS 41 YEAR PERIOD OF
RECORD. WESTERLY IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WAS REPORTING BETWEEN 90TH TO
HIGHEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR LATE APRIL IN ITS 51 YEAR
PERIOD OF RECORD.

ELSEWHERE GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE AVERAGING WITHIN 75TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILE RANGES FOR LATE APRIL.

IN MASSACHUSETTS... GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL...
GENERALLY 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE RANGES FOR MID APRIL IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING CAPE COD. GROUNDWATER LEVELS ACROSS
FAR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS WERE AVERAGING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

PETERSHAM IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS WAS REPORTING ITS HIGHEST MEDIAN
GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR LATE APRIL IN ITS 35 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD.

IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

IN VERMONT...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL.
GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE INCREASED ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS
DUE TO COMBINED RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING APRIL.

THE GROUNDWATER LEVEL SOUTH OF GLOVER IN ORLEANS COUNTY HAS
INCREASED TO BETWEEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND HIGHEST MEDIAN LEVEL
FOR LATE APRIL.

IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST
OF THE STATE.

IN MAINE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHEST MEDIAN LEVELS FOR LATE APRIL ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS MANY
NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

HIGHEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR LATE APRIL IN RESPECTIVE
MAINE LOCATION PERIODS OF RECORD...

FORT KENT 41 YEARS
KENDUSKEAG 39 YEARS
CALAIS 35 YEARS
HADLEY LAKES 32 YEARS
CLAYTON LAKE 29 YEARS
AMHERST 27 YEARS
MILLINOCKET 23 YEARS

SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAVE PRODUCED A
LARGE QUANTITY OF RUNOFF WHICH IN TURN HAS HELPED BOOST BASIN
GROUNDWATER LEVELS.

...RESERVOIR LEVELS...

LAKE AND RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE APRIL WITH NET INCREASES OBSERVED DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SOME
MELT AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. INDIAN LAKE IS NOW RUNNING 1.5
FEET ABOVE NORMAL. GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE WAS RUNNING ABOUT 4.3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL POOL LEVELS.

FURTHER NORTH...LAKE CHAMPLAIN AT BURLINGTON VERMONT IS NOW RUNNING
2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL AND WITHIN MINOR FLOOD AS OF 30
APRIL 2019.

THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM...COMPRISED OF 7 LARGE
RESERVOIRS IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE...WAS RUNNING AT 100.4
PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF 29 APRIL 2019. THIS WAS 2.0 PERCENT ABOVE
NORMAL. FIVE OF THE SEVEN RESERVOIRS ARE NOW RUNNING ABOVE THEIR
CAPACITY LEVELS INCLUDING SCHOHARIE....PEPACTON...CANNONSVILLE...
NEVERSINK AND CROTON. ASHOKAN AND ROUNDOUT ARE VERY CLOSE TO
CAPACITY AT THIS TIME.

IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RESERVOIR SYSTEMS IN THE KENNEBEC AND
ANDROSCOGGIN HAVE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE APRIL. THE
ANDROSCOGGIN RESERVOIR WAS RUNNING ABOUT 89 PERCENT OF CAPACITY
ON APRIL 29TH...ABOUT 23 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

LAKE WINNIPESAUKEE WAS ABOVE FULL RESERVOIR LEVEL FOR LATE APRIL
AND ABOUT 0.7 FOOT ABOVE THE MEAN LEVEL FOR LATE APRIL.

ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...QUABBIN RESERVOIR...THE MAIN WATER
SUPPLY RESERVOIR FOR MUCH OF GREATER BOSTON...WAS RUNNING AT 101.4
PERCENT CAPACITY AS OF 01 MAY 2019. THE WACHUSETT RESERVOIR WAS AT
94.5 PERCENT CAPACITY AS OF 01 MAY 2019.

IN RHODE ISLAND THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR...THE MAIN WATER SUPPLY
RESERVOIR FOR NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING PROVIDENCE...WAS AT
285.46 FEET AS OF 30 APRIL 2019 WHICH IS ROUGHLY 105.6 PERCENT
CAPACITY.

WE DO NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD WATER SUPPLY PROBLEMS
THE REMAINDER OF THIS SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

STREAMFLOWS ARE GENERALLY AVERAGING ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL NOW
DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL APRIL PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF DUE TO MELT.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE RIVER FLOODING OCCURRED DUE TO
RAIN AND MELT EVENTS ON THE 19TH AND 20TH AND AGAIN THE 26TH AND
27TH. THERE WERE STILL 5 RIVER POINTS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE OR
FORECAST TO GO TO MINOR FLOOD AT THE TIME OF THIS REPORT. MOST NERFC
BASINS HAVE BEEN IMPACTED BY FLOODING IN APRIL EXCEPT GREAT LAKES
BASIN.

MOST OF THE RIVER ICE IN NORTHERN MAINE HAS CLEARED OUT DUE TO THREE
RAIN AND MELT EVENTS APRIL 13-15TH...19TH AND 20TH AND THE 26TH AND
27TH. IN ADDITION THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE HAS INCREASED ROT.

PATCHY RIVER ICE REMAINS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE ACCORDING TO
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER OPEN AREAS WERE PREVAILING.

RIVER ICE IS NO LONGER OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESENCE OR A CONCERN
ACROSS THE NERFC AREA.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SOME DECENT SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER REMAINS PRIMARILY ACROSS DEEP
WOODED AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. SOIL MOISTURE AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WETTER THAN
NORMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL AS CURRENT AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS.
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUED MELT OF THE
REMAINING SNOWPACK WILL KEEP RUNOFF LEVELS ELEVATED AND THUS AN
ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS THESE AREAS.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL...IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...UPPER REACHES OF
THE HUDSON ALONG THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER.

CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND LEFTOVER MELT CHANNELING FROM LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TO THE RICHELIEU RIVER...THE UPPER HUDSON ALONG THE
ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER WILL KEEP AN
ELEVATED FLOOD THREAT MOSTLY NEAR TO SHORT TERM. CHANCES FOR SOME
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW LAKE AND RIVER LEVELS TO BE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL...IS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NERFC AREA. WETTER THAN NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE STATES AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTHEAST THIS SPRING. HOWEVER GREENUP HAS BEGUN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BASINS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED ABSORPTION AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF MOISTURE. SNOW IS GONE BUT WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED MOST AREAS.
LEFTOVER PATCHES OF ICE CONTINUE TO ROT AND THIN OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ICE HAS ALREADY BEEN FLUSHED OUT FROM
RECENT RAIN AND MELT EVENTS IN APRIL.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT IN
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT


        ***WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/NERFC/OPS/FP1_TODAY.JPG***

ALL IN LOWER CASE.

THIS IS THE LAST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK EXPECTED FOR
THE 2019 SEASON.

END/STRAUSS
$$



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