Extended Streamflow Prediction
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000
FGUS65 KSTR 031818
ESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

APRIL 3, 2019

ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - AS OF APRIL 1 2019:


Precipitation:

Seasonal October-March precipitation was 135 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, 110 percent of average for the Gila Basin and
130 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. March precipitation was
100 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 125 percent in the
Gila River Basin, and 110 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin.

Streamflow:

March Streamflow was around 310 percent of median in the Salt-Verde,
270 percent in the Gila, and generally 205 percent in the Little Colorado.

April 1st Snow:

Basin snowpack conditions were near 120 percent of median in the
Salt-Verde River Basin, the Little Colorado River Basin was around
165 percent and the upper Gila basin was 40 percent of median.

Soil Moisture:

Modeled soil moisture states have increased dramatically over the past
couple of months.

Climate Conditions:

Weak El Nino climate conditions suggest chances for above average precipitation
in Arizona.

Forecast Summary:

The April-May forecast volumes were between 6 to 120 percent of median in the
Little Colorado Basin, 56 to 156 percent of median in the Salt-Verde
Basin. In the Gila Basin, volumes were between 37 and 119 percent.


SPECIFIC SITE FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

Afos message output for EGDD: /nvm1/users/tracy.cox/wsup/wy19/lc/lcapr.drv
Developed:                    Apr 1 2019

LOWER Colorado
                           Period     50%  %MED    10%    30%    70%    90%    MED
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Little Colorado River
  Lyman Lk, abv, St. John  Apr-Jun    4.2   120    7.0    5.3    4.1    4.1    3.5
Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv      Apr-May   0.03    30   0.05   0.04   0.02   0.01   0.10
Chevelon Ck
  Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cy  Apr-May   0.11     6   1.28   0.17   0.11   0.10   1.70
Gila River
  Gila, nr                 Apr-May   19.7   119     29     24   19.7   19.6   16.5
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, bl  Apr-May     23   110     35     28     23     22     21
San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr             Apr-May    2.7    37    3.5    3.0    2.7    2.6    7.3
  Clifton                  Apr-May    8.6    50   16.4   12.7    8.6    8.5   17.3
Gila River
  Solomon, nr, Head Of Sa  Apr-May     35    90     50     42     34     34     39
  San Carlos Res, Coolidg  Apr-May   18.5   101     31     27   18.0   17.4   18.4
Salt River
  Roosevelt, nr            Apr-May    170   134    220    197    162    155    127
Tonto Ck
  Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck,   Apr-May    9.2   156   12.1   10.3    9.2    9.1    5.9
Verde River
  Tangle Ck, blo, Horsesh  Apr-May     20    56     41     30   19.8   19.7     36

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%MED  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 median.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
MED   median volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

****************************************************************************

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:

                       MARCH`19        SEASONAL
BASIN                 % Average       % Average

  Upper Gila            125             110
  Salt-Verde            100             135
  Little Colorado       110             130

***************************************************************************

SNOWPACK SUMMARY:

                      APRIL 1 2019
BASIN                  % Average

  Upper Gila              40
  San Francisco            5
  Salt-Verde             120
  Little Colorado        165


***************************************************************************

OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:

                       MARCH`19
BASIN                  % Median

  Gila                   270
  Salt-Verde             310
  Little Colorado        205

**************************************************************************

For additional forecast information refer to the Water Supply section of
the CBRFC web page at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

CBRFC

NNNN

$$



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