Extended Streamflow Prediction
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000
FGUS65 KSTR 051731
ESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

MARCH 5, 2019

ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - AS OF MARCH 1 2019:


Precipitation:

Seasonal October-February precipitation was 145 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, 105 percent of average for the Gila Basin and
140 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. February precipitation was
270 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 160 percent in the
Gila River Basin, and 260 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin.

Streamflow:

February Streamflow was around 435 percent of median in the Salt-Verde,
100 percent in the Gila, and around 600 percent in the Little Colorado.

March 1st Snow:

Basin snowpack conditions were near 125 percent of median in the
Salt-Verde River Basin, 90 percent of median in the upper Gila,
and 125 percent of median in the Little Colorado River Basin.

Soil Moisture:

Modeled soil moisture states were much below average at the
beginning of the water year. However, soil moisture states have increased
dramatically over the past couple of months. March through May runoff
volumes are primarily influenced by the frequency and magnitude of winter
rain events.

Climate Conditions:

Weak El Nino climate conditions suggest chances for above average precipitation
in Arizona.

Forecast Summary:

March-May streamflow forecast volumes between 57 and 144 percent of median
in the Little Colorado Basin, 150 to 305 percent of median in the Salt-Verde
Basins. In the Gila Basin, March-May volumes were between 59 and 109
percent.

SPECIFIC SITE FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

Afos message output for EGDD: /nvm1/users/tracy.cox/wsup/wy19/lc/lcmar.drv
Developed:                    Mar 1 2019

LOWER Colorado
                           Period     50%  %MED    10%    30%    70%    90%    MED
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Little Colorado River
  Lyman Lk, abv, St. John  Mar-Jun    3.4    57    6.5    4.8    2.9    2.4    6.0
Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv      Mar-May   0.30   130   1.00   0.59   0.24   0.19   0.23
Chevelon Ck
  Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cy  Mar-May     20   144     44     28   16.2   10.9   13.9
Gila River
  Gila, nr                 Mar-May     37   109     77     53     29     23     34
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, bl  Mar-May     43   100     83     60     36     27     43
San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr             Mar-May    9.0    59     20     14    7.3    5.1   15.2
  Clifton                  Mar-May     28    74     62     41   20.0   14.1     38
Gila River
  Solomon, nr, Head Of Sa  Mar-May     78    88    148    111     65     47     89
  San Carlos Res, Coolidg  Mar-May     54   102    134     88     41     27     53
Salt River
  Roosevelt, nr            Mar-May    360   150    540    460    295    225    240
Tonto Ck
  Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck,   Mar-May     67   305    138     97     49     37     22
Verde River
  Tangle Ck, blo, Horsesh  Mar-May    275   257    455    360    210    163    107

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%MED  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 median.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
MED   median volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.


****************************************************************************

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:

                      FEBRUARY`19      SEASONAL
BASIN                 % Average       % Average

  Upper Gila            160              105
  Salt-Verde            270              145
  Little Colorado       260              140

***************************************************************************

SNOWPACK SUMMARY:

                     MARCH 1 2019
BASIN                  % Average

  Upper Gila              90
  San Francisco          135
  Salt-Verde             125
  Little Colorado        125


***************************************************************************

OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:

                      FEBRUARY`19
BASIN                  % Median

  Gila                   100
  Salt-Verde             435
  Little Colorado        600

**************************************************************************

For additional forecast information refer to the Water Supply section of
the CBRFC web page at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

CBRFC

NNNN

$$


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