Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FNUS71 KALY 141238
FWSALY

Spot Forecast for Albany Pine Bush S-130/S-190 Rx...Albany Pine Bush
National Weather Service Albany NY
838 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at alb.stormreport@noaa.gov, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry and somewhat mild conditions are expected this morning with
temperatures mainly in the 40s.  Colder air will move southward across
the region later with a wintry mix of precipitation especially north and west
of the mid Hudson Valley late this afternoon into tonight.  A strong surface
high over southeast Canada will continue to funnel southward chilly
air for the second half of the weekend with the mixed precipitation
consisting of rain, freezing rain, and sleet continuing, as the
front attempts to lift north.  The frontal boundary will move
northward Sunday night into Monday, but a strong low pressure system
and a cold front will bring a some heavy rainfall, windy conditions
and a slight chance of thunderstorms to open the week.

The combination of precipitation, mountain snow cover, and high
RH values will keep fire weather concerns extremely
limited at this time.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................MISSING.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 14 to 17 mph.
Surface winds.......North winds 14 to 17 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 14 to 17 mph with gusts to around
                    25 mph.
Mixing height.......800-1500 ft AGL increasing to 1900-3000 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 17 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.02 inches.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain likely in the
                    evening. Light freezing rain and light sleet
                    through the night.
CWR.................MISSING.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Min temperature.....Around 31.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds 13 to 17 mph.
Surface winds.......Northeast winds 13 to 17 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds 13 to 17 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph.
Mixing height.......400-2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 13 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.15 inches.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Light freezing rain
                    and light sleet in the morning, then rain,
                    light freezing rain and light sleet likely in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................MISSING.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 35.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Eye level winds.....East winds 12 to 17 mph.
Surface winds.......East winds 12 to 17 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......East winds 12 to 17 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph.
Mixing height.......400-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 14 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.19 inches.

$$
Forecaster...MSE
Requested by...Tyler Briggs
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1806680.0/ALY
.EMAIL tbriggs@albanypinebush.org,tbriggs@albanypinebush.org


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