Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 161717

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
117 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 957 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Snow showers are diminishing this morning to flurries, and the
flurries to nothing as the 850 mb temperatures slowly warm to -5C
or so by this afternoon. Not to mention the dry air that is
associated with the sfc and 850 mb highs, which will continue into
the region today and remain into early next week. Cloud cover will
also diminish today as the lake effect begins to wane with the
warming 850 mb temperatures.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper troughing was over the NE conus as well across the Pac NW/nrn
Rockies, with weak mid level ridging across the central part of the
country. In the lower levels, there was still some ill-defined low
level troughing stretched back across the nrn Great Lakes, from deep
low pressure north of New England. The low level cold pool was
starting to depart east, but there was still more than sufficient
overlake instability and resulting moisture flux off the Great Lakes
that is stuck under a shallow inversion. This has continued to
result in lake strato-cu and light snow/flurries in NW/NNW flow
regimes, primarily in NW lower (ice in eastern Lake Superior is
limiting lake effects in eastern upper). High pressure and clear
skies was seen back to the NW in central Canada.

The low level troughing will gradually fade into/past daybreak as
the aforementioned high pressure edges closer to nrn Michigan. Winds
will become increasingly anticyclonic while drier and modifying air
gradually erodes the lake strato-cu and light snows. Did have to
extend the lifetime of clouds/snow in the NNW flow lake effect
regimes (no surprise), but nonetheless, skies will become
sunny/clear all areas through the day. The dry air and higher
pressure will be overhead tonight, and outside of some potential
higher level clouds, skies will be more clear than anything else.

Highs today in the lower to middle 30s most areas, upper 30s in
downsloping areas nearer Saginaw Bay. Lows tonight in the teens to
lower 20s.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...Quiet and slightly warmer weekend weather...

High Impact Weather Potential...None

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Broad area of surface high pressure will
sit over the Upper Great Lakes through the weekend. A moisture-
starved cold front will drop south across northern Michigan early
Saturday morning, while a closed low over Iowa shears out as it is
carried into the Ohio Valley. Saturday night an elongated shortwave
and weak surface reflection will drop through southern Ontario, kept
out of northern Michigan by a stronger upstream ridge over the
central US. This system will drag another moisture-starved cold
front through the area on Sunday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Quiet weather through the weekend with
minimal forecast concerns thanks to a rather dry airmass overhead
and weak forcing. Forecast soundings across northern Michigan show a
pretty dry column through the period, with only a small increase in
clouds across the northern half of the forecast area Saturday
evening into the overnight as the weak system passes by to our
northeast. Otherwise plenty of sunshine expected through the
weekend, which will help boost daytime highs above freezing for a
large portion of the forecast area, especially by Sunday. Saturday`s
highs generally in the low 30s north to low 40s south, and by Sunday
in the mid 30s north to the mid 40s south (maybe flirting with 50 in
some spots?).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Quiet stretch of weather continues into the start of the work week
as another strong surface high crosses Ontario. Main system of
interest through the period will be a low ejecting out of the Plains
Monday into Tuesday. As it crosses the Ohio Valley, a potent wave
will race across the southern US, intensifying the aforementioned
system as it lifts into the Northeast. Models continue to hint at a
weaker, secondary surface low developing on the backside of the main
system Tuesday night into Wednesday, though it is now progged to
stay well south of northern Michigan. Otherwise surface high
pressure allows for another dry day on Thursday. Temperatures will
run near or slightly below normal through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

High pressure will be in the region for the next several days
which will lead to vfr category conditions through the next 24
hours. Otherwise, the only concerns have been the diminishing lake
clouds near TVC, which shouldn`t be more than scattered clouds
during this afternoon, and winds at APN that are 14G25kt early
this afternoon. As the high continues to move into the region, and
the sun sets, the winds will decouple and settle as the gradient
relaxes this evening.


Issued at 622 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Lingering light lake effect snow showers/flurries and MVFR CIGS
will gradually diminish/end this morning, as high pressure and
drier low level air build into the region. VFR Conditions then
expected for the remainder of the TAF period, with skies generally
clear. Maybe some increase in higher level cloud tonight. Gusty
westerly winds subsiding somewhat today.




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