Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 231423
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1023 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Quiet weather continues. Morning composite analysis reveals fairly
sharp upper level ridge axis stretching up through the Midwest
into south-central Canada. Downstream expanse of high pressure
stretches from the Hudson Bay region south to the Gulf Coast,
along with a nice pocket of dry air across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. Upper ridge axis will slowly build into the Great
Lakes over the next one to two days, maintaining this run of
quiet weather, along with warming temps/increasing humidity as we
get on the backside of the surface high.

So, no big forecast issues. That said, we will have to keep an eye
on Lake Michigan marine stratus, just offshore from Manistee to
Leelanau counties and some of which is scraping the Frankfort
area this morning. Potential is there for marine stratus/fog to
spread inland tonight as overall low level synoptic flow turns
into the west. Will see how it goes.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Impactful weather: Areas of fog, some dense, mainly along the
coastlines.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper level ridging was stretched through the central plains early
this morning, with troughing across eastern Canada down through the
mid Atlantic. At the sfc, high pressure and a core of dry air was
over much of the Great Lakes region. With light winds and little to
no forcing anywhere around, skies were mostly clear and the weather
absolutely quiet. Temperatures have cooled into the 40s with some
lower 50s, and the clear/calm conditions has resulted in areas of
fog, some of it dense in coastal and low lying areas.

Not much to talk about in the weather through tonight with the sfc
high pressure and dry air remaining over nrn Michigan. This will
result in the continued mostly clear skies with just some passing
very thin cirrus. However, some late night fog in low lying areas is
once again expected in decent radiational cooling and light winds.
Also, dew points will slowly rise with time, reaching the lower 50s,
and likely resulting in more areas of fog out over the Great Lakes.
A slight W/SW wind will more likely impact coastal areas around Lake
Michigan and through the Straits. The upper ridging will slowly work
in over the region, resulting in a continued trend of warming
temperatures. Highs today will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s,
with cooler temperatures in coastal areas due to lake breezes coming
in off the Lakes. Diurnal swings around 30F in another night of good
radiational cooling will result in lows in the middle 40s to lower
50s tonight. Coolest in low lying areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

...Shower & storm chances return Thursday night-Friday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Elevated fire danger possible;
otherwise, none.

Pattern Forecast: Upper level ridging is expected to become centered
atop the forecast area late Thursday/Thursday night while an
expansive area of high pressure continues to drive northern
Michigan`s weather for the first half of the forecast period.
Changes arrive as early as late Thursday night through Friday as a
well-defined shortwave and attendant developing area of low pressure
gradually approaches the region from the west aiding to increase
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances at various times through
the upcoming weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: PoPs/thunder chances Thursday
night through Friday.

Quiet weather is expected to continue Thursday as northern Michigan
lies on the western periphery of an expansive area of high pressure
stretching from the Midwest eastward through the Mid-Atlantic/
Northeast. Mostly sunny skies, light winds and temperatures climbing
well above normal will be the rule. Highs expected to max out some
10-20 degrees above late May normals...ranging from the mid-upper
70s across eastern upper and the Tip of the Mitt to the low-mid 80s
along and south of M-32. Coolest readings likely to be found nearest
the lake shores as late afternoon temperatures gradually fall in
many Great Lakes collar counties as developing lake breezes push
inland.

Winds gradually transition to south-southwesterly throughout the day
Thursday aiding to increase moisture advection across western
sections of the forecast area as changes get underway as early as
late Thursday night/early Friday. Approaching aforementioned
shortwave troughing and disorganized area of low pressure are set to
cross the area late Friday with leading scattered shower chances,
especially across far northern locales tied to the area of greater
forcing/instability. See no reason to deviate from inherited chance
PoPs across eastern upper and the Tip of the Mitt after midnight
Thursday night through Friday mornign before slowly sagging further
south across far northwest lower by Friday afternoon (and beyond).
Despite the greatest instability centered well to our west, model
soundings suggest upwards of 100-350 J/kg of MLCAPE gradually
pressing into far western and northern areas during the day Friday,
so wouldn`t be surprised to see a few thunderstorms mixed in as
well. Friday`s high temperatures expected to be very warm once
again...ranging from the mid-70s across eastern upper to the low-
upper 80s (flirting with 90 in downsloping areas of northeast
lower?) across much of northern lower (cooler near the coasts once
again).

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Unsettled weather is expected to occasionally continue through the
upcoming holiday weekend as several mid level perturbations are
expected to race across the northern tier of the CONUS. Won`t be a
total washout of a weekend, but periodic shower and thunderstorm
chances are expected Friday night through at least Sunday. High
temperatures expected to remain above normal...generally ranging
from the mid 70s to low 80s through the weekend into the start of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 612 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

...Some fog issues, otherwise VFR...

High pressure, relatively dry air and light winds will hold over the
TAF period. This will result in mostly clear skies, but sfc dew
points will slowly rise and areas of fog will be a bit more common
at night. This will especially be true over the cold Great Lakes,
and will impact primarily MBL/coastal areas. The light winds will
lead to lake breezes/onshore flow this afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

A weak pressure gradient in high pressure will hold over the region
through Thursday, resulting in little to no chances for any wind or
wave issues. The gradient does tighten later Thursday night into
Friday ahead of the next low pressure and chance for showers and
ultimately a chance for Thunderstorms. Stable conditions over the
Great Lakes will likely prevent any advisory level winds, but the
greatest chance for advisory winds will be across the Lake Michigan
nearshore waters. While prolonged periods of rain are not expected,
at least some showers and thunderstorms are possible through much of
the upcoming holiday weekend.&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BA
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD


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