Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 251401
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1001 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Three distinct upper level shortwaves were noticeable on satellite
and RUC analysis data this morning. One associated with deeper
moisture and sfc low pressure moving up the Atlantic coast. Another
two were resulting in weaker areas of sfc low pressure along a
frontal boundary that stretches from Quebec/eastern Great Lakes down
into the low to mid Mississippi valley. One of these weaker sfc low
pressures was just off to the east of Lake Huron. Portions of NE
lower were still seeing some spits of rain, within lingering low
level convergence, deeper moisture and departing upper divergence.
This should only take another couple hours to end, while a pocket of
deeper drier continues to work in from the west, out ahead of sfc
high pressure and upper level ridging from Ontario into the lee of
the nrn Rockies. Until then, gonna have to deal with some low level
clouds in shallow cooler air mass over much of nrn Michigan. Skies
will be trending sunnier through the afternoon however, as
temperatures climb into the upper half of the 40s to lower 50s.

The sfc high pressure and upper ridging will gradually build in over
nrn Michigan tonight resulting in clear skies and light winds. There
could perhaps be a little shallow ground fog in portions of
primarily NE lower, if clearing takes longer, leaving the BL not as
mixed out.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

...Clouds diminishing today...

High impact weather potential: none.

Primary low is over the Carolinas, with an inverted trof extending
up toward se lower MI. This trof then extends ne as a cold front
into southern Quebec, where a weak surface low is found
(associated with a digging northern stream shortwave). These
systems will move east away from MI, and though we remain under
the backwash with lingering clouds and light precip, improvement
is expected today.

A ridge of high pressure will gradually build across WI today,
before easing into lower MI tonight. This is accompanied by a 500mb
shortwave ridge arriving toward Thu morning. These features will
result in deep drying/subsidence thru the near-term period. That
said, to this point the models have been too eager to kick precip
out the door. It appears the models are doing a better job now, but
still might need to slow them down a bit more.

In nw lower and most of eastern upper, showers will end from w to e
by 12z/8am. Will need to hang onto some post-12z morning precip east
of an HTL-Lewiston-Huron Beach line, as well as in far se Chippewa
Co (se of Pickford). Given the mid levels dry below the sludgy low
levels do, there`s some possibility for a transition to some drizzle
before everything is done, especially in ne lower MI. In addition,
with precip lingering longer as cooler air advects in, could also
see a few snowflakes mix in before things wrap up. All precip should
be done by noon or 1 pm.

Nw lower will see partial clearing even by 12z/8am, though another
band of low/mid clouds will wrap back in later in the morning before
more emphatic clearing kicks in this afternoon. Eastern upper will
benefit from that clearing by midday, while ne lower kicks in mid
afternoon. Mainly clear skies for tonight, except for some cirrus/
mid clouds perhaps drifting back into eastern upper MI very late.
Some concerns that mixing/drying will be inhibited in ne lower MI
today long enough to contribute to some fog potential late tonight,
However, the days continue to get longer, and will not hit this yet.

Max temps mid 40s to lower 50s, warmest near Saginaw Bay. Min temps
20s to around 30f.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

...Occasional shower threat with up & down temperatures...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: Brief upper level ridging across Michigan on
Thursday will quickly be replaced by shortwave troughing as several
perturbations arrive out of Canada through the forecast period. The
initial trough is progged to extend from near James Bay
southwestward through International Falls into the central plains.
At the same time, a secondary wave is expected to be positioned
further northwest across Manitoba. Attendant cold front to the
initial wave is set to progress across northern Michigan from NE to
SE Thursday night into early Friday morning, along with an
increasing scattered shower threat and a return to below normal
temperatures to wrap up the work week. The secondary wave is
expected to drop overhead this weekend, aiding to enhance troughing
and continue below normal through at least Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: PoPs Thursday night into early
Friday.

Fairly quiet weather is anticipated Thursday with lots of sunshine
giving way to increasing cloudiness from northwest to southeast
toward sunset and beyond as the aforementioned cold front makes
progress toward the forecast area. Ribbon of limited moisture along
and ahead of the front is expected to yield only a scattered shower
threat, mainly after midnight through mid-Friday morning.

Low threat for a few additional light scattered showers Friday
evening into early Friday night ahead of the arrival of the
aforementioned secondary wave, but by and large, the overwhelming
majority of northern Michigan will be hard-pressed to see any
appreciable rainfall during either time frame of potential showers.

Thursday high temperatures expected to climb several degrees above
Wednesday`s...ranging from the mid 50s across eastern upper and
along the Lake Michigan/Huron shorelines...to near 60 inland across
northern lower. 10-15 degrees cooler for Friday as temperatures dip
back below normal...varying from the mid 40s to low 50s area-wide.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Troughing continues across the western Great Lakes, along with
perhaps a lingering scattered shower threat, to start the forecast
period. Otherwise, nearly all guidance suggests an expansive area of
high pressure drifting from the plains into the Great Lakes by later
Saturday into Sunday with dry weather, lots of sunshine, and above
normal temperatures returning to end the weekend into at least the
middle of next week. Early trends suggest at least much of northern
lower could be well into the 70s for high temperatures Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Some MVFR conditions possible at APN this morning, otherwise VFR.

Departing low pressure areas will usher lingering rain out of ne
lower MI this morning. Still possible for APN to see a period of
MVFR conditions this morning (note that Rogers City presently has
an IFR cig), before more abrupt clearing takes place. VFR
elsewhere today. Might have some shallow fog concerns at APN very
late tonight.

Northerly winds will be a touch brisk at times today, before going
light tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Northerly breezes will diminish today and this evening, as high
pressure moves into the western Great Lakes, eventually reaching
lower MI tonight. Advisory level conditions will be seen on some
waters of Lakes MI and Huron today, tapering off faster on Lake
MI.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ348-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LMZ323-342.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ



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