Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 221739
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
139 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Rapid warmup has begun as sun-filled skies and very dry airmass
remains. Temperatures already well into the 40s, with even a few
lower 50s (53 here at the office). Current trends easily support
inherited highs reaching the into the 50s, with much of the
interior of northern lower reaching, or even topping, 60 degrees.
Lake breezes expected to develop, keeping areas close to the Great
Lakes a bit cooler.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

...Gradual warning trend continues...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large area of strong high pressure and
dry air remains centered over the Great Lakes region early this
morning...resulting in clear skies and dry wx across the great state
of Michigan. Clear skies and calm winds are allowing temps to slowly
drop thru the 30s and into the 20s.

For today and tonight...strong surface high and dry air thru the
column will remain overhead...maintaining clear and dry wx thru
tonight. Our gradual warming trend will continue today with
afternoon highs warming into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees across
our entire CWA. Low temps tonight will range from the mid 20s across
interior sections of Northern Lower Michigan to the low to mid 30s
across the rest of our CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

...Above normal temperatures...

High Impact Weather Potential: None aside from monitoring rising
river levels through early this week due to snow melt runoff.

Pattern Forecast: Northern Michigan is expected to lie between two
systems slowly meandering across the continent early this upcoming
week. The initial and more potent wave across the southern plains
into the southern MS Valley and the second across Alberta/
Saskatchewan. Surface and upper level ridging will gradually slide
east of the area locally Monday into Monday night with weak
southerly moisture advection underway Tuesday combined with an
approaching cold front from the northwest may yield scattered
showers at times across portions of northern Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: PoPs Tuesday.

Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated across the
region to start the upcoming week. Another sun-filled day is
expected Monday with high temperatures climbing a few degrees above
normal for most...ranging from the upper 50s across eastern upper to
the low-mid 60s for many south of the bridge (cooler near the
lakeshores).

Low end chances for rain showers arrive during the day Tuesday,
primarily during the afternoon/evening hours as the aforementioned
systems make headway toward the Great Lakes. Expecting any precip to
be rather scattered/brief in nature with most locations staying dry
conditions for the bulk of, if not the entire, day. High
temperatures Tuesday pretty similar to Monday`s....mid 50s across
eastern upper with low-mid 60s expected to prevail for much of
northern lower.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

The pattern is expected to become somewhat more active as we head
toward the end of the upcoming week as upper level troughing is
expected to become (at least briefly) carved out across the
midsection of the country. With several perturbations riding along
the periphery of said troughing, occasional chances for rain and/or
snow become possible from Thursday through the upcoming weekend
(although plenty of dry time will be mixed in as well).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

More of the same with VFR conditions under just a few passing high
clouds. Light winds continue, with local lake breezes expected
this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru the early part
of this week as high pressure remains in charge of the wx across the
Great Lakes region. Dry wx and mainly clear skies are expected...
with a continuation of the gradual warming trend.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MB
NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MR



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